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General Sharps MLB Picks

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Views: 60424
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Prospect
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Posted: #76
I've got KC -171 Vargas vs Baker
 
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Posted: #77
Now KC-160 at Bookmaker
 
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Posted: #78
Thanks Train.

I just locked in KC ML 1.68 (-148) from Pinnacle.

Don't be afraid of line movement Bizarro. I just cap games. I used to watch and track it a lot, but there really is no difference over thousands of games. At least not in my experience. 
 
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Posted: #79
Another profitable day. Too bad KC spent Saturday night at the bar. Overall 6-3.

SF@WAS UNDER 7   1.95 - LOSE $100
PIT@MIL UNDER 8   1.91 - WIN $191
MIA@COL OVER 10.5   2.01 - WIN $201

WAS ML 1.54 - WIN $154
MIL ML 1.72 - WIN $172
CWS ML 1.82 - LOSE $100
SEA ML 1.63 - WIN $163
DET ML 1.62 - WIN $162
KC  ML 1.68 - LOSE $100


Total cost of bets: $900
Total winnings: $1043
Total profit: $143, 1.43 Units


Record to Date: 59W - 32L, +11.36U
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $11,036, +$1136

Total Profit to Date (after 11 days of betting): +$1136, +11.36 Units flat betting $100 per pick.





 
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Posted: #80
Sunday Night Baseball Play:

LAA@OAK OVER 7.5   1.95 (-105)

Goodluck guys.


 
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Posted: #81
Looking good so far on the over. I am off to bed. Hopefully no Moose when I wake up. Goodnight everybody.
 
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Posted: #82
Good end to Sunday, going 7-3 overall.

LAA@OAK OVER 7.5   1.95 (-105) - WIN $195


Record to Date: 60W - 32L, +12.31U
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $11,131, +$1131


Will be back in a few hours with today's plays.
 
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Posted: #83
*Correction, input wrong numbers in bankroll. Current profit is $1,231, not $1,131

Record to Date: 60W - 32L, +12.31U
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $11,231, +$1,231


Total Profit to Date (after 11 days of betting): +$1231, +12.31 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 1.12 Units profit per day.
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp:

Sunday Night Baseball Play:

LAA@OAK OVER 7.5   1.95 (-105)

Goodluck guys.


good TOTALS play through out this thread, "Sunday Night Baseball" brings another WIN to the forefront...well done, may you continue to prosper (+12.3u / 11 days)
 
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Posted: #85
L.A.A 9 | OAK 4 
 
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Posted: #86
Thanks sportsN, appreciate the comments. Always nice to see the game fly over. 

Today's Games: Monday August 25th, 2014: All lines are from Pinnacle Sports at the time of post.

7 plays, 4 ml, 3 totals.


PIT 1.76
MIL 1.77
SF 1.58
TOR 1.88

STL@PIT OVER 7 2.11
TB@BAL UNDER 8 1.83
NYY@KC UNDER 7.5 1.90

Good luck everyone.
 
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Posted: #87
I have definitely been there Manila. It took me 2 years to build a profitable, feasible baseball betting model for totals and ml. 

I am not sure how much you know about programming, databases, algorithms, etc... but I crunch a lot of data. 

If you need a steer in the right direction, the best advice i can give you that isn't 10 pages long is focus on the pitchers and the bullpen. Ignore the hitters. The most important thing in totals is anticipating the innings both pitchers will throw and the specific relievers that will come in. You have to break down the bullpen. You cannot just use general bullpen stats. Focus on specific guys and know who will be rested and who will come in.

Ballpark factors and weather are also important, but not as much as the pitching. 
 
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Posted: #88
I start by looking at WHIP of both pitchers to get a read on over / under plays. I have found there are some big differences home / away for some pitchers so I look at WHIP for each split. I agree you need to factor in bullpen but man is it tough to predict this year!
 
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Posted: #89
GeneralSharp - thanks for the insight man. I'm a programmer myself, was wondering how you used it to build your models? Any advice on how to get started?
 
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Posted: #90
He is sharp! And he is the General! BOL! I agree with all your plays! Big night ahead General! Lex Tim
 
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Posted: #91
Way to go GS. Nice overall capping. I also like the decimal system since I always flat bet. I also think it is easier to calculate the returns.For anyone who doesn't understand it is easy. For example if a game returns 1.55 Units with 1 unit being the bet, just subtract your 1 unit and you have a 0.55 unit gain. Anyway keep up the good work General 
 
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Posted: #92
Absolutely Bizarro, it has been an interesting year. I always use splits for data with totals simply because of the park factors. Great job.

Thanks Tim, good luck to you as well. Hopefully we have a great night. It's a travel day so that sometimes brings surprises but overall we should do well.

Thanks Mr Bone, flat betting keeps it simple for me. Thanks for helping out with the explanation. I should have done it earlier in the thread. Appreciate it.

Well Top, I built a custom program using C and C++. I set it up where i can plug in the stats I use to cap (era, whip, k/9, runs per game, ops, defensive efficiency, etc...). It spits out a score for a team. Then I apply filters such as injured players, travel schedule, fatigue, etc... and they filter out over valued teams. Then the final selections I make my own lines. Once I have my lines for my picks I compare them to the books. If the book offers a better price to my line, I bet it. If it doesn't I pass. I don't claim to make sharper lines, but I am making money and beat the closing line most of the time.

You don't have to create a program as I did, you can even use excel. I treat capping like a job and work hard everyday. It can be beat with hard work and discipline just like any other challenge in life.
 
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Posted: #93
Impressive! Keep up the good work. I'll have to try my hand at this method. I'm a Java/Web-Dev guy myself. Would be a fun side project. I'm assuming your program revolves around your algorithm/model.

Appreciate the help! 
 
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Posted: #94

Adding 2 more plays for today:

WAS ML 1.71
OAK ML 1.61


Thanks Topkaiki, yes I assign a value to each stat and assign a power rating to each team using season stats averaged with stats from last 5 games (complete rotation). Each stat has a unique strength percentage in the algorithim. For example, in the model I OPS will be more more than a teams error amount. 

The filters are extremely important. Nobody a can tell me the Red Sox will play the exact same way on a Monday evening game in Houston coming off Sunday night baseball vs. the Yanks. The "they are pros" line is complete garbage. They are humans. 

Good luck tonight.

 
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Posted: #95
*meant to say "OPS will be worth more than a teams error amount" 
 
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Posted: #96
sharp 
 
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Posted: #97
general sharp --  congrats on your excellent results to date. your record speaks for itself and demonstrates an experienced and knowledgeable grasp of handicapping baseball. if i may be so bold as to ask a question i was wondering why all of your money line selections tend to be favorites and not underdogs? don't recall seeing any underdog selections in this thread? how do you account for this? is it your model? or something else at play? thanks in advance for your answer and keep up the great work. best of luck going forward.
 
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Posted: #98
Hi shug, no problem.

I don't make picks based on price. I do PASS on picks based on price. I do mainly bet favorites, but only when there is value. Usually it's pretty small, but there is still value. There is no value in a loser, despite a good price. I would never lay -200 on a mediocre pitcher vs. the Astros, but I would lay -200 on Kershaw. You just need to sniff out the +EV favorites and you will do well.

I also bet a lot of totals, and I use Pinnacle, so I get most totals at -105. So in the end, the average price I pay is around -120 with totals and ml factored together. Best of luck. 


 
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Posted: #99
Very, very nice record, Sharp. You're one of the very few cappers I would blindly tail, but you're hitting 65% at the moment, which we all know is impossible to maintain. It's the only thing stopping me from tailing you. Then again, you mostly bet favourites so your win percentage would be higher than if you would only bet on -105 or -110 lines in the NFL, say.

BOL tonight
 
 
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Posted: #100
thanks general for your prompt response. but i remain somewhat confused. i understand you bet for value which i believe is the best approach. but how do you account for your handicapping model not finding or identifying value in any money line underdogs and only favorites? thats what is not making sense to me. surely there must be instances where this would occur? for example an underdog of 2.50 that would be expected to win greater than 40% of the time. any additional insight or info would be greatly appreciated. thanks again and best of luck going forward.
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