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How do you know when to shut it down for the week?

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Hey everyone, I'm fairly new at this and I'm a recreational better. I don't play with large units or anything, but am doing this to hopefully make some side money to pay for gas, etc. 

I see a lot of you post daily and play daily. Do you ever shut it down for the week? a couple of weeks ago I started tracking how I was doing each week and my goal was to be about 4 units positive each week. The first week i went up 11 units. The next I was chasing a lot (foolishly) and ended up down 10 units. This week I went up 3 units. HOWEVER, I was up 9 units on wednesday/thursday. 

So, my question is, do you guys ever shut it down for the week? Hindsight is 20/20 and I feel like i should have stopped for the week on thursday when I was up 9 units and continue on Monday for another positive week. However, I wanted to know: 

a) do you all track your progress per week in order to keep yourself in check and give yourself a starting point for managing your money?
b) do you bet daily?
c) does shutting it down for the week make sense? (and linked to that, does my money management strategy of playing each week make sense?)

Thanks! Just trying to learn and save myself some growing pains. 
 
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Posted: #2
I bet everyday. 
 
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Posted: #3
once you start..you never stop lol
welcome to the new world
 
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Posted: #4
I think the key is to find edges that you believe you can exploit and take advantage of them, any and all days. Some days you have eight plays, some days you have none. 

Don't take this the wrong way, but if you're sort of just throwing darts at a board and you get up a certain amount, then I think shutting it down for a few days is ideal!
 
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Posted: #5
You're not gonna be up 4 units every week, never gonna happen.  It will go UP and DOWN like a rollercoaster.  Looking at it as a season long proposition is the only way to gauge whether it is worth your time and money or not. 

For most people (the huge majority), it's not and they're kidding themselves to justify feeding their addiction.  Keeping accurate records is the only way to face the reality of this.  If you can't go an entire season (of whatever sport you're capping) and come out ahead then it's a losing proposition and if you continue it is for ENTERTAINMENT purposes only. 

98% of people lose (in the long run).  Anybody who tells you any different is full of you know what, there's a reason why these so-called great handicappers are selling their picks.  If they were so fantastic at it, they wouldn't need to sell their picks.  Billy Packer has never sold his picks.
 
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Posted: #6
Do you mean Billy Walters?

Billy Packer is a color guy for college bball. lol


Spot on advise btw..

 
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Haha, yeah Billy Walters.  Thanks.
 
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Posted: #8
When you run out of Money. 
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Trillest:

 
b) do you bet daily?
c) does shutting it down for the week make sense? (and linked to that, does my money management strategy of playing each week make sense?)

Thanks! Just trying to learn and save myself some growing pains. 


Don't set weekly goals for profit. It's too short-term and, basically, impossible to sustain long-term. Also, don't approach betting with the hope of raising money for certain expenses, etc. 

You're on the right track, thinking about money management. But instead of per week, you need to manage the season.

Start with a bankroll that you can afford to lose. If you didn't win a single game, would it hurt you emotionally or financially? If so, your starting bankroll is too high. Decide what you're comfortable losing in full -- see it as 'entertainment' money.

Next, break it down into standard bet sizes. These will be your units. You'll see a lot of people on the web talk about dropping '50 unit hammers' and '100 unit bombs'. These people have no idea what the unit system is for. This 'unit' can be whatever you want it to be, and it should be consistent. There are several approaches to bankroll management, and it again comes down to what you're comfortable with, but in general start out with a unit being anywhere between 1% and 5% of your starting bankroll.

To give you an example: I set each unit at 5% of my starting roll each year. This means I can lose ~20 games in a row before I'm done. My starting roll, again, is money I won't miss if it all goes. When I find myself up 10 units overall, I start betting 1.5 a game. 2 if I hit 20 units. Back down 1 if I suddenly find myself breakeven.

Others prefer to bet only 1% or 2% per game, and they divide their current balance each day (rather than keep the unit 'locked' like I do). 

Either is fine. The point is, you need to keep your balance in play through the good and the bad. Success in sports gambling comes from making advantage plays consistently over a large number of plays. The good cappers' edge becomes apparent when he grinds over the season. Week to week, however, his results are volatile. This the called variance, and it's the nature of gambling. No matter how good you are, you're going to have awful days, awful weeks...even months.

So to the last question, it's not that you're looking to bet every day. You are looking to bet wherever you see an edge. This might mean two days where you play 4-5 games a day, and then play nothing for 3 days. Or a week of single game days. Try not to look to meet a quota per day or week; focus instead of trying to find every good value / advantage bet you can find.

Hope this helps you. It's a long post, and maybe you already knew a lot of it, but there's a lot of bad (and downright reckless) advice out there so thought it might be a helpful overview. 

The most important thing to get right from the start is bankroll management, because then you'll never been in danger of going off the rails either financially or emotionally.

Good luck 
 
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Posted: #10
OMG wall of words. the correct answer is to take a break when u lose control of your discipline in either your pick selection or amount of wager.

then play again when you get a hold of yourself.

 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by joshfactor:

OMG wall of words. the correct answer is to take a break when u lose control of your discipline in either your pick selection or amount of wager.

then play again when you get a hold of yourself.


Nothing in my response was 'incorrect', and the OP asked for advice to avoid growing pains. 

Better a 'wall of words' than a generic response that doesn't address preventing discipline-loss in the first place.

 
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Posted: #12
Don't go crazy. There's A ton of games pout there
 
Legend
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by joshfactor:

OMG wall of words. the correct answer is to take a break when u lose control of your discipline in either your pick selection or amount of wager.

then play again when you get a hold of yourself.




^^^^^ Truth
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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Posted: #14
i am the 2% hahah peasants
 
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Posted: #15
It's a RollerCoaster...Hang on and Enjoy......Get off when you feel it is TIME....Stay Positive..
 
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Posted: #16
No, never 'shut it down'.  You have to bet your way out of these inevitable slumps.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17
i'd put a limit on your account and play accordingly, if you have the willpower and are up anything, i'd stop

i've been doing 1 unit a week, i get the urge to make bets all the time after that but i'v stopped myself from doing it

i play the 4 game series chases, if i win monday my 1 unit
its hard not betting again until the next monday though

i'v been doing it though and it's been working for me

if all you care about is gas money

i'd just stop each week after you win a unit or lose more than two
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by KPMAN:

once you start..you never stop lol
welcome to the new world

+1
 
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Posted: #19
Wow that's for all the responses! I thought i would just get a post or two with some pointers and advice but this was awesome! 

Some takeaways i see applying to me are:
-manage money over a longer term than just weekly
-Might have to lower what my unit is and be more consistent in playing the same unit size per play (sometimes I can go 2-1 but end up even because I played my loss as a larger unit size)
-play fewer games - look for the ones that present the biggest advantages and roll with those.
-don't stress about lost money and prepare mentally to lose it all (and I shouldn't care much because my bankroll is tiny compared to all of yours!) 

Thanks again everyone!
 
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Posted: #20
When you can't find anymore empty bottles!

 
 
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Posted: #21
You not trill No disrespect but you stop when you broke. You still not trill but you sound responsible for this thread. Burger Park burned down.
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