While TB had a good record this year against left handed starters, their offense has been anemic. In the last two weeks, the Rays faced 4 left handed starters:
On 9/27 Brian Matusz 7 ip, 3 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 8 K's On 10/1 Bruce Chen 9 ip, 2 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 7 K's On 10/6 Cliff Lee 7 ip, 5 hits, 1 run, 0 walks, 10 K's On 10/7 CJ Wilson 6 1/3 ip, 2 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 7 K's
In their L4 games against lefty starters, the Rays have 12 hits in 29 1/3 innings (that's a .120 average), have scored 1 run and have struck out 32 times versus 6 walks.
Did Bruce Chen really throw a complete game shut out against them on 10/1? OUCH!
In their L12 games overall against all pitchers, they've scored 28 runs (2.33 per game).
Just food for thought.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
While TB had a good record this year against left handed starters, their offense has been anemic. In the last two weeks, the Rays faced 4 left handed starters:
On 9/27 Brian Matusz 7 ip, 3 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 8 K's On 10/1 Bruce Chen 9 ip, 2 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 7 K's On 10/6 Cliff Lee 7 ip, 5 hits, 1 run, 0 walks, 10 K's On 10/7 CJ Wilson 6 1/3 ip, 2 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 7 K's
In their L4 games against lefty starters, the Rays have 12 hits in 29 1/3 innings (that's a .120 average), have scored 1 run and have struck out 32 times versus 6 walks.
Did Bruce Chen really throw a complete game shut out against them on 10/1? OUCH!
In their L12 games overall against all pitchers, they've scored 28 runs (2.33 per game).
While TB had a good record this year against left handed starters, their offense has been anemic. In the last two weeks, the Rays faced 4 left handed starters:
On 9/27 Brian Matusz 7 ip, 3 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 8 K's On 10/1 Bruce Chen 9 ip, 2 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 7 K's On 10/6 Cliff Lee 7 ip, 5 hits, 1 run, 0 walks, 10 K's On 10/7 CJ Wilson 6 1/3 ip, 2 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 7 K's
In their L4 games against lefty starters, the Rays have 12 hits in 29 1/3 innings (that's a .120 average), have scored 1 run and have struck out 32 times versus 6 walks.
Did Bruce Chen really throw a complete game shut out against them on 10/1? OUCH!
In their L12 games overall against all pitchers, they've scored 28 runs (2.33 per game).
Just food for thought.
scary
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Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:
While TB had a good record this year against left handed starters, their offense has been anemic. In the last two weeks, the Rays faced 4 left handed starters:
On 9/27 Brian Matusz 7 ip, 3 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 8 K's On 10/1 Bruce Chen 9 ip, 2 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 7 K's On 10/6 Cliff Lee 7 ip, 5 hits, 1 run, 0 walks, 10 K's On 10/7 CJ Wilson 6 1/3 ip, 2 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 7 K's
In their L4 games against lefty starters, the Rays have 12 hits in 29 1/3 innings (that's a .120 average), have scored 1 run and have struck out 32 times versus 6 walks.
Did Bruce Chen really throw a complete game shut out against them on 10/1? OUCH!
In their L12 games overall against all pitchers, they've scored 28 runs (2.33 per game).
retake stats 101 then you may understand....GL to you on your play
I think he was saying that the sample size is somewhat small and we don't actually know where the true mean is and when it will actually regress in that direction.
One could say that TB with the best record in the majors against left handers despite their poor hitting would eventually regress to wards the mean of their record against lefties which is currently correcting itself. The bottom line is there is a flaw in the TB lineup against lefties. Most of their hitters are worse against lefties and they recently have been completely dominated.
Just playing point/counter point.
The Ugly is good people.
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Quote Originally Posted by TheUgly:
retake stats 101 then you may understand....GL to you on your play
I think he was saying that the sample size is somewhat small and we don't actually know where the true mean is and when it will actually regress in that direction.
One could say that TB with the best record in the majors against left handers despite their poor hitting would eventually regress to wards the mean of their record against lefties which is currently correcting itself. The bottom line is there is a flaw in the TB lineup against lefties. Most of their hitters are worse against lefties and they recently have been completely dominated.
GH...not trying to insult you or your thread responders...think you do a great job capping and have a good understanding of situation plays. Right now you are playing a few trends that you think will factor the most in determining the game, namely the recent inability of TB to hit lefties. I would say that the previous poster does not understand how to establish a mean based on a sample and then determine deviations but, really, who cares about stats anyway at covers....I see some keys as
Ability of TB to hit the first pitch fastball from Lee Ability of Pena not to k Health of Longoria Ability of TB to overcome no BB's aka find ways to get on
I feel TB will have a more aggressive mindset this time around and I also feel seeing a pitcher for the second time in a short amount of time favors the pitcher with RAW stuff. Price has better stuff and therefore will be more likely to overcome the hitters fresh memories. Lee is not overpowering and TB hitters may be able to use their recent experience to jump on pitches early. That said if Lee locates the way he did last game it may not matter.
Tex is .500 team on the road...TB is a good home team...there are trends that support both plays but all said I got TB at -135 and that why I made the play I did.
But no doubt the Rangers could easily come out and win the game especially if they score first or Rays don't play D...I also like TB bullpen a lot better if it is close late...I believe the Rangers need to score first to win this game and I just like TB to take control early...
GL GH keep up the good work hope you get your units back...after tonight ;)
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GH...not trying to insult you or your thread responders...think you do a great job capping and have a good understanding of situation plays. Right now you are playing a few trends that you think will factor the most in determining the game, namely the recent inability of TB to hit lefties. I would say that the previous poster does not understand how to establish a mean based on a sample and then determine deviations but, really, who cares about stats anyway at covers....I see some keys as
Ability of TB to hit the first pitch fastball from Lee Ability of Pena not to k Health of Longoria Ability of TB to overcome no BB's aka find ways to get on
I feel TB will have a more aggressive mindset this time around and I also feel seeing a pitcher for the second time in a short amount of time favors the pitcher with RAW stuff. Price has better stuff and therefore will be more likely to overcome the hitters fresh memories. Lee is not overpowering and TB hitters may be able to use their recent experience to jump on pitches early. That said if Lee locates the way he did last game it may not matter.
Tex is .500 team on the road...TB is a good home team...there are trends that support both plays but all said I got TB at -135 and that why I made the play I did.
But no doubt the Rangers could easily come out and win the game especially if they score first or Rays don't play D...I also like TB bullpen a lot better if it is close late...I believe the Rangers need to score first to win this game and I just like TB to take control early...
GL GH keep up the good work hope you get your units back...after tonight ;)
and also Bruce Chen was throwing decent to end the season...5 straight starts with 3 runs or less and of 4 win - 0 loss to finish out....also the rays did not play longoria in that game and in my opinion they would not have been sad to take the wild card and play the Twins---to bad for the Rays the yankees beat them out for worst finish to take wild card
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and also Bruce Chen was throwing decent to end the season...5 straight starts with 3 runs or less and of 4 win - 0 loss to finish out....also the rays did not play longoria in that game and in my opinion they would not have been sad to take the wild card and play the Twins---to bad for the Rays the yankees beat them out for worst finish to take wild card
AL scout offers this assessment of Lee: "He's a hard-nosed pitcher who
expects to go nine innings every time he pitches. He has the ability to
pitch back to front [part of the plate] as well as side to side. He has
pitchability more than overwhelming stuff, as he's capable of using his
mix to a lot of locations in the zone and sequence [of pitches] is not
at all to be expected."
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AL scout offers this assessment of Lee: "He's a hard-nosed pitcher who
expects to go nine innings every time he pitches. He has the ability to
pitch back to front [part of the plate] as well as side to side. He has
pitchability more than overwhelming stuff, as he's capable of using his
mix to a lot of locations in the zone and sequence [of pitches] is not
at all to be expected."
Price has the make-up, the athleticism, the overpowering stuff, and
mentality.
Once he harnesses his developing changeup as a third plus-pitch, he will
be virtually unstoppable and one of the elite pitchers in the game.
Price’s money pitch has always been his dominating plus-fastball which
sits at about 90-94 mph (it can sometimes reach upwards of 95). As a
lefty, what makes him even more difficult to hit is that his fastball
has excellent tailing action that moves away from right-handed hitters.
This really gives no one, right or left-handers, any advantage. The two
other pitches he mixes in are a 77-79 mph slurve and a plus-slider that
ranges around 84-86 mph. He uses his slider very well in two-strike
counts making it very difficult for hitters expecting a fastball.
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Price has the make-up, the athleticism, the overpowering stuff, and
mentality.
Once he harnesses his developing changeup as a third plus-pitch, he will
be virtually unstoppable and one of the elite pitchers in the game.
Price’s money pitch has always been his dominating plus-fastball which
sits at about 90-94 mph (it can sometimes reach upwards of 95). As a
lefty, what makes him even more difficult to hit is that his fastball
has excellent tailing action that moves away from right-handed hitters.
This really gives no one, right or left-handers, any advantage. The two
other pitches he mixes in are a 77-79 mph slurve and a plus-slider that
ranges around 84-86 mph. He uses his slider very well in two-strike
counts making it very difficult for hitters expecting a fastball.
Lee is not a power left-hander, averaging 89-92 mph, but has exceptional
command of six different pitches. He throws a cut fastball, mostly to
right-handed hitters and uses both a two- and four-seam fastball to
lefties and right-handers. He will throw both a curve and a slider and
does have a changeup. Lee, who also has a fielder-friendly quick tempo
on the mound, has allowed just six walks this year and 16 in his last 25
starts. Lee is pretty much a 1-to-1 flyball-to-groundball pitcher, but
did not allow a preponderance of homers after being traded to
Philadelphia last year. In five starts and 35.2 innings in
Philadelphia's Citizen's Bank Park.
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Lee is not a power left-hander, averaging 89-92 mph, but has exceptional
command of six different pitches. He throws a cut fastball, mostly to
right-handed hitters and uses both a two- and four-seam fastball to
lefties and right-handers. He will throw both a curve and a slider and
does have a changeup. Lee, who also has a fielder-friendly quick tempo
on the mound, has allowed just six walks this year and 16 in his last 25
starts. Lee is pretty much a 1-to-1 flyball-to-groundball pitcher, but
did not allow a preponderance of homers after being traded to
Philadelphia last year. In five starts and 35.2 innings in
Philadelphia's Citizen's Bank Park.
take your pick...they are both good pitchers...i think Price can overpower you and Lee often out thinks you (pitching backwards) keeping hitter off balance and guessing
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take your pick...they are both good pitchers...i think Price can overpower you and Lee often out thinks you (pitching backwards) keeping hitter off balance and guessing
Who is umping behind the plate tonight ? does the ump have an expanded strike zone,,,,which would benifit Lee ....Price will get hit either way.....but if the strike zone is is tight Lee may struggle....I love Lee and Texas in this spot ,,,,but need to check all the angles.....
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Who is umping behind the plate tonight ? does the ump have an expanded strike zone,,,,which would benifit Lee ....Price will get hit either way.....but if the strike zone is is tight Lee may struggle....I love Lee and Texas in this spot ,,,,but need to check all the angles.....
Great discussion GameHunter and TheUgly...must say you got an ugly price at -135, but thats not my place. I am cheering for the Rangers tonight and would have loved to get +125, but my gut fears the worst for them (finding a way to blow a 2-0 lead).
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Great discussion GameHunter and TheUgly...must say you got an ugly price at -135, but thats not my place. I am cheering for the Rangers tonight and would have loved to get +125, but my gut fears the worst for them (finding a way to blow a 2-0 lead).
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