Interesting Stats for TB against lefties recently

-135 was my calculated odds I did not take that price...must say as a long time bettor games almost never work out exactly as i cap them and for Lee backers if he doesn't pitch up to his usual self that texas bullpen with Zero experience outside Oliver scares me to death (and even Oliver scares me)...TB bullpen on the other hand I can live and die with...Just like two nights ago I thought Hudson would throw a great game...he did but three ATL errors and a poor bullpen sunk me (factors I should have weighed more..I knew Conrad and the bullpen were both struggling)...If Lee comes out and throws a shut out like everyone is predicting of course Rangers win...but if he does not the factors and experience favor TB...

Glad we can have a good discussion here and I hope game doesn't mind me polluting his thread too much

thank you for posting this

Gamehunter..

Mean Reversion only works over a long term play.  You cannot predict the one game when it will revert.  Unless you psychic powers.  It works if you were to play the Rays over a fairly long stretch, based off a mean of an even much longer stretch.  I'm with you on the Rays though

Great stuff Ugly and great discussion and facts.

I think Texas has an advantage on the mound tonight, has the better lineup and a slightly better bullpen.

Lee and Price are both great pitchers but when healthy, i think Cliff Lee is the most dominant lefty in baseball, bar none. His command is the best we have seen in years. His 10:1 K:BB ratio is the third best ratio in a season all-time. He constantly gets ahead on counts and makes hitters try and hit his best stuff. Yes, price has the better raw arm, but Lee's control is impeccable and he is a better pitcher than Price despite Price being the better thrower.

I said it since the beginning of this season, but Tampa's lineup is close to a joke. They are the 2nd worst hitting team in the AL. Jason Bartlett had one good season and went back to being Jason Bartlett his year and hit .254. Ben Zobrist had an abysmal year at .238 with 10 HR's. Justin Upton hit .237 and still has not fulfilled his potential. Carlos Pena was an absolute joke hitting .196 this season. Kelly Shoppach hit .196 this season. Dan Johnson will DH tonight and hit .198 after a great season in the minors. Sean Rodriguez hit a pedestrian .251. This team's lineup is so weak, they used Rocco Baldelli in Game 1 as a starter after just 24 at bats this season and then Desmond Jennings in Game 2 after just 21 at bats this season. The Rays' hitters struck more than 100 times more than any team in the AL this year. This is one of the 5 worst hitting teams in the majors this year.

What the Rays do well is walk and steal bases and you couldn't have a more difficult pitcher to do that against than Cliff Lee. As stated, his K:BB ratio is the 3rd best in any single season all time. he allowed just 8 SB's this season in 14 attempts.

Texas' lineup is filled with land mines from top to bottom.

Hey, it's one game. Anyone can win but I think Texas is the better team with advantages in every aspect of tonight's matchup so I am investing.

Best of luck Ugly. I look forward to being ont he same side as you more often than not.

Justin Upton plays for Arizona

Tampa Bay relies heavily on the walk, and well folks, Cliff Lee isn't that kind of guy.

Thanks...obviously I meant BJ Upton.....both have no patience.

I assume you also support an under 3.5 Tampa team total play?

Hey KP!

Looking forward to you carrying me in CBB.

Yes, I support the under TB 3.5.

Your A's were scrappy this year. They just need to add two bats and they win the division.

I'm SHOCKED that they won 81 games - that pitching staff was awesome (and that with Geren completely butchered his handling of the bullpen).  If we hadn't had a glorified Triple A offensive roster on a night to night basis they would have been tough to handle. 

I'm getting very excited about college basketball myself!  I'm hoping college football pumps up my bankroll even more for the assault! 

I'm not going to be making a thread about this or anything but because I live here in San Antonio and have some friends/colleagues that are obsessed with all things Spurs I have some nice inside information about the behind the scenes workings of the Spurs and Greg Pop and with that being said - I might be making a huge play on over 48 wins.  I would suggest reading up on their squad as I really see this number to be EXTREMELY soft. 

Great win GH...just like you drew it up...Congrats

That's not fair. I got laughed at when I mentioned this with CJ Wilson on the mound.  People threw that record against me.