And what the absolute HELL is this in the Atlanta/Cubs game?!!!Got a line of -105/-105 with Fried/Alzolay!!And an O/U of 12.......This Alzolay kid has one good outing and he is equal to Fried....right...So, just for the sake of argument...how do these starters make a 12 line?...this game being played at Coors field?...Damn books......
Big named, storied franchises like the Cubs often have skewed numbers. Over the years i've written extensively about taking advantage of bad numbers against storied franchises like the Cubs, the Yankees, the Sawks, to a lesser extent, the Indians, in football, the Cowboys, etc. I'm not certain but I think this is one of those times. Or it can just be that Fried has struggled in 2 of his last 4. As far as the total, the wind is blowing out. So much is made of the wind at Wrigley and where it's blowing. I don't track it closely enough to speak to it's validity. I know it have similar patterns to a few other ballparks that don't get nearly the same attention. What I do know is oddsmakers respond to public perception. So if you have a bunch of amateur cappers tracking the wind at Wrigley and yoi see it's blowing out, you set a high number to cover your arse. If the total is one run less, people are pounding the over. Where it's set now, people will have to think.about it.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
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Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
And what the absolute HELL is this in the Atlanta/Cubs game?!!!Got a line of -105/-105 with Fried/Alzolay!!And an O/U of 12.......This Alzolay kid has one good outing and he is equal to Fried....right...So, just for the sake of argument...how do these starters make a 12 line?...this game being played at Coors field?...Damn books......
Big named, storied franchises like the Cubs often have skewed numbers. Over the years i've written extensively about taking advantage of bad numbers against storied franchises like the Cubs, the Yankees, the Sawks, to a lesser extent, the Indians, in football, the Cowboys, etc. I'm not certain but I think this is one of those times. Or it can just be that Fried has struggled in 2 of his last 4. As far as the total, the wind is blowing out. So much is made of the wind at Wrigley and where it's blowing. I don't track it closely enough to speak to it's validity. I know it have similar patterns to a few other ballparks that don't get nearly the same attention. What I do know is oddsmakers respond to public perception. So if you have a bunch of amateur cappers tracking the wind at Wrigley and yoi see it's blowing out, you set a high number to cover your arse. If the total is one run less, people are pounding the over. Where it's set now, people will have to think.about it.
One more hint Smack. If you think the books or "Vegas" make mistakes it is nothing more than your opinion. They have every asset in the world available to help them make lines. It is conceivable that ONE book could make a mistake, if they were the ONLY source of linemaking, but when two dozen or more, with independent sources, AND in house linemakers are within pennies of each other, NO, there is no mistake. You might "like" one side or the other, for whatever reason, but that does NOT make the line itself a mistake.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
One more hint Smack. If you think the books or "Vegas" make mistakes it is nothing more than your opinion. They have every asset in the world available to help them make lines. It is conceivable that ONE book could make a mistake, if they were the ONLY source of linemaking, but when two dozen or more, with independent sources, AND in house linemakers are within pennies of each other, NO, there is no mistake. You might "like" one side or the other, for whatever reason, but that does NOT make the line itself a mistake.
One more hint Smack. If you think the books or "Vegas" make mistakes it is nothing more than your opinion. They have every asset in the world available to help them make lines. It is conceivable that ONE book could make a mistake, if they were the ONLY source of linemaking, but when two dozen or more, with independent sources, AND in house linemakers are within pennies of each other, NO, there is no mistake. You might "like" one side or the other, for whatever reason, but that does NOT make the line itself a mistake.
The flip side of your statement is true as well...
If your belief is that the books or "Vegas" never makes a mistake, it is your opinion...nothing more or less than that...neither one of us will ever have enough empirical evidence to confirm either premise...
But I will stand by my anecdotal evidence using tonight as prima fascie proof that they do make mistakes...it's up to us to identify them...
5 runs in a game with a posted O/U of 12...
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
One more hint Smack. If you think the books or "Vegas" make mistakes it is nothing more than your opinion. They have every asset in the world available to help them make lines. It is conceivable that ONE book could make a mistake, if they were the ONLY source of linemaking, but when two dozen or more, with independent sources, AND in house linemakers are within pennies of each other, NO, there is no mistake. You might "like" one side or the other, for whatever reason, but that does NOT make the line itself a mistake.
The flip side of your statement is true as well...
If your belief is that the books or "Vegas" never makes a mistake, it is your opinion...nothing more or less than that...neither one of us will ever have enough empirical evidence to confirm either premise...
But I will stand by my anecdotal evidence using tonight as prima fascie proof that they do make mistakes...it's up to us to identify them...
Smack, it is NOT a mistake if the book makes money. If you think a team should be -160 and they are only -115, that does NOT make the line a MISTAKE. The ONLY thing that constitutes a mistake is if a book posts a line they get sided on for a ton of money and THEN LOSE. Most of the winners we pick have every bit as much money, OR MORE, on the other side. Just because the book lost to you does not mean he lost on the game, therefore; there was no mistake in his line. Let me know when the books start crying about how much money they are losing on sports. Most still have a dime line. Some, like Bovada, have gone to 20 cents, but that is their greed and their customers ignorance coming out. None are crying, and none will, They are trying to recruit more customers, so like any successful business, we have to assume they know what they are doing.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Smack, it is NOT a mistake if the book makes money. If you think a team should be -160 and they are only -115, that does NOT make the line a MISTAKE. The ONLY thing that constitutes a mistake is if a book posts a line they get sided on for a ton of money and THEN LOSE. Most of the winners we pick have every bit as much money, OR MORE, on the other side. Just because the book lost to you does not mean he lost on the game, therefore; there was no mistake in his line. Let me know when the books start crying about how much money they are losing on sports. Most still have a dime line. Some, like Bovada, have gone to 20 cents, but that is their greed and their customers ignorance coming out. None are crying, and none will, They are trying to recruit more customers, so like any successful business, we have to assume they know what they are doing.
KeyElement...mah man...I understand your points...but your definition of the books making a mistake and mine are radically different......
I understand the books are NOT losing money...they ARE recruiting more players and they WILL win money in the long run as their pockets are deep and, in general, gamblers are gonna gamble and the 5-10% who can make money long term will be identified and they will be limited in their action and amounts eventually to reduce the books risks vs identified sharps...
All that being said...my definition of a "mistake" is simple...they post a line that gives the gambler an expected + EV...that's all brutha......
Went back and compiled my record...6-2-1 with one parlay loss as well......
Best of luck!...
PM for the skinny on the down low
0
KeyElement...mah man...I understand your points...but your definition of the books making a mistake and mine are radically different......
I understand the books are NOT losing money...they ARE recruiting more players and they WILL win money in the long run as their pockets are deep and, in general, gamblers are gonna gamble and the 5-10% who can make money long term will be identified and they will be limited in their action and amounts eventually to reduce the books risks vs identified sharps...
All that being said...my definition of a "mistake" is simple...they post a line that gives the gambler an expected + EV...that's all brutha......
Went back and compiled my record...6-2-1 with one parlay loss as well......
Texas/Detroit...Mike Minor +107/Matthew Boyd -117.........
I am so sorry...is this a typo Mr. Bookmaker?.......
In Boyd's last 8 starts since 5/13...the team went 1-7 with their only win being BALTIMORE...his ERA in the last 15 days is 8.12...he seemed to start the season off well but is fading as it goes on...
I just don't see him faring well against a Rangers offense that now has Joey Gallo back, an improved Mazara and Willie Calhoun is healthy and tearing the cover off the ball...
Texas is 6-2 in Mike Minor's last 8 starts...His ERA in the last 7 days is 1.18...15 days is 2.42...30 days is 2.45...he is the picture of consistency...
I would love to see what Minor's record is as a dog this year but it's got to be damn good...
PM for the skinny on the down low
0
Looking over tomorrow's games...
Texas/Detroit...Mike Minor +107/Matthew Boyd -117.........
I am so sorry...is this a typo Mr. Bookmaker?.......
In Boyd's last 8 starts since 5/13...the team went 1-7 with their only win being BALTIMORE...his ERA in the last 15 days is 8.12...he seemed to start the season off well but is fading as it goes on...
I just don't see him faring well against a Rangers offense that now has Joey Gallo back, an improved Mazara and Willie Calhoun is healthy and tearing the cover off the ball...
Texas is 6-2 in Mike Minor's last 8 starts...His ERA in the last 7 days is 1.18...15 days is 2.42...30 days is 2.45...he is the picture of consistency...
I would love to see what Minor's record is as a dog this year but it's got to be damn good...
I always thought the "books made a mistake" thing was just his shtick/theme and I think you're digging way too deep into it, Key, and giving him way too hard of a time.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
0
I always thought the "books made a mistake" thing was just his shtick/theme and I think you're digging way too deep into it, Key, and giving him way too hard of a time.
KeyElement...mah man...I understand your points...but your definition of the books making a mistake and mine are radically different......I understand the books are NOT losing money...they ARE recruiting more players and they WILL win money in the long run as their pockets are deep and, in general, gamblers are gonna gamble and the 5-10% who can make money long term will be identified and they will be limited in their action and amounts eventually to reduce the books risks vs identified sharps...All that being said...my definition of a "mistake" is simple...they post a line that gives the gambler an expected + EV...that's all brutha......Went back and compiled my record...6-2-1 with one parlay loss as well......Best of luck!...
and your run diff went 12-3 yesterday
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Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
KeyElement...mah man...I understand your points...but your definition of the books making a mistake and mine are radically different......I understand the books are NOT losing money...they ARE recruiting more players and they WILL win money in the long run as their pockets are deep and, in general, gamblers are gonna gamble and the 5-10% who can make money long term will be identified and they will be limited in their action and amounts eventually to reduce the books risks vs identified sharps...All that being said...my definition of a "mistake" is simple...they post a line that gives the gambler an expected + EV...that's all brutha......Went back and compiled my record...6-2-1 with one parlay loss as well......Best of luck!...
Smack the line is what it is . a point of reference only. Bettors are very likely to perceive " Value " on both sides of it.
If you can consistently find a value point on a matchup , and are disciplined enough to only wager on matchups where a verifiable value is present , you will be successful at this.
Notice I underlined the words discipline , and verifiable value. These are the skills most who wager lack, and whom bookmakers look forward to serving.
Smack
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Smack the line is what it is . a point of reference only. Bettors are very likely to perceive " Value " on both sides of it.
If you can consistently find a value point on a matchup , and are disciplined enough to only wager on matchups where a verifiable value is present , you will be successful at this.
Notice I underlined the words discipline , and verifiable value. These are the skills most who wager lack, and whom bookmakers look forward to serving.
Smack the line is what it is . a point of reference only. Bettors are very likely to perceive " Value " on both sides of it.
If you can consistently find a value point on a matchup , and are disciplined enough to only wager on matchups where a verifiable value is present , you will be successful at this.
Notice I underlined the words discipline , and verifiable value. These are the skills most who wager lack, and whom bookmakers look forward to serving.
Smack
FWIW ,If one does not possess the ability to accurately verify value in a matchup and know what their wagering skill level is , it is impossible to succeed long term at this. Bookmakers know this , most Bettors do not.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
Smack the line is what it is . a point of reference only. Bettors are very likely to perceive " Value " on both sides of it.
If you can consistently find a value point on a matchup , and are disciplined enough to only wager on matchups where a verifiable value is present , you will be successful at this.
Notice I underlined the words discipline , and verifiable value. These are the skills most who wager lack, and whom bookmakers look forward to serving.
Smack
FWIW ,If one does not possess the ability to accurately verify value in a matchup and know what their wagering skill level is , it is impossible to succeed long term at this. Bookmakers know this , most Bettors do not.
Texas/Detroit...Mike Minor +107/Matthew Boyd -117.........
I am so sorry...is this a typo Mr. Bookmaker?.......
In Boyd's last 8 starts since 5/13...the team went 1-7 with their only win being BALTIMORE...his ERA in the last 15 days is 8.12...he seemed to start the season off well but is fading as it goes on...
I just don't see him faring well against a Rangers offense that now has Joey Gallo back, an improved Mazara and Willie Calhoun is healthy and tearing the cover off the ball...
Texas is 6-2 in Mike Minor's last 8 starts...His ERA in the last 7 days is 1.18...15 days is 2.42...30 days is 2.45...he is the picture of consistency...
I would love to see what Minor's record is as a dog this year but it's got to be damn good...
Another solid winner with Texas taking care of business...
Now 7-2-1 finding the bookie mistakes...there's at least one every day it seems...
PM for the skinny on the down low
0
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
Looking over tomorrow's games...
Texas/Detroit...Mike Minor +107/Matthew Boyd -117.........
I am so sorry...is this a typo Mr. Bookmaker?.......
In Boyd's last 8 starts since 5/13...the team went 1-7 with their only win being BALTIMORE...his ERA in the last 15 days is 8.12...he seemed to start the season off well but is fading as it goes on...
I just don't see him faring well against a Rangers offense that now has Joey Gallo back, an improved Mazara and Willie Calhoun is healthy and tearing the cover off the ball...
Texas is 6-2 in Mike Minor's last 8 starts...His ERA in the last 7 days is 1.18...15 days is 2.42...30 days is 2.45...he is the picture of consistency...
I would love to see what Minor's record is as a dog this year but it's got to be damn good...
Another solid winner with Texas taking care of business...
Now 7-2-1 finding the bookie mistakes...there's at least one every day it seems...
FWIW ,If one does not possess the ability to accurately verify value in a matchup and know what their wagering skill level is , it is impossible to succeed long term at this. Bookmakers know this , most Bettors do not.
Agreed on all your points...and so few bettors want to learn what it takes to beat the books consistently...
They only want the fish...not to learn how to fish...
PM for the skinny on the down low
0
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
FWIW ,If one does not possess the ability to accurately verify value in a matchup and know what their wagering skill level is , it is impossible to succeed long term at this. Bookmakers know this , most Bettors do not.
Agreed on all your points...and so few bettors want to learn what it takes to beat the books consistently...
They only want the fish...not to learn how to fish...
Found another one...value just oozing from this one...the books just can't help themselves and they know the public can't either....
Washington... Strasberg -205
Miami ... Alcantara +185
O/U 7.5
The Nats have crushed the Fish the last 2 games...but the Fish come in at 6-4 in their last 10 and had a 4 game winning streak prior to this series....they have been playing near .500 ball over most of June...
This pitching matchup should be much closer than the line indicates...thus the value with the Fish here...
Washington is 23-22 vs teams .500 or less this year...I will take this value and run with it...
PM for the skinny on the down low
0
Found another one...value just oozing from this one...the books just can't help themselves and they know the public can't either....
Washington... Strasberg -205
Miami ... Alcantara +185
O/U 7.5
The Nats have crushed the Fish the last 2 games...but the Fish come in at 6-4 in their last 10 and had a 4 game winning streak prior to this series....they have been playing near .500 ball over most of June...
This pitching matchup should be much closer than the line indicates...thus the value with the Fish here...
Washington is 23-22 vs teams .500 or less this year...I will take this value and run with it...
Will be closely monitoring the Atlanta/Cubs game...no line being offered at my book right now but you have to be interested in whatever number they come up with for Atlanta's Bryse Wilson...
Interested in the Cubs to crush him that is...
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Will be closely monitoring the Atlanta/Cubs game...no line being offered at my book right now but you have to be interested in whatever number they come up with for Atlanta's Bryse Wilson...
Will be closely monitoring the Atlanta/Cubs game...no line being offered at my book right now but you have to be interested in whatever number they come up with for Atlanta's Bryse Wilson...
Interested in the Cubs to crush him that is...
line is up . moving toward Atlanta
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
Will be closely monitoring the Atlanta/Cubs game...no line being offered at my book right now but you have to be interested in whatever number they come up with for Atlanta's Bryse Wilson...
Found another one...value just oozing from this one...the books just can't help themselves and they know the public can't either....Washington... Strasberg -205Miami ... Alcantara +185O/U 7.5The Nats have crushed the Fish the last 2 games...but the Fish come in at 6-4 in their last 10 and had a 4 game winning streak prior to this series....they have been playing near .500 ball over most of June...This pitching matchup should be much closer than the line indicates...thus the value with the Fish here...Washington is 23-22 vs teams .500 or less this year...I will take this value and run with it...
HEY SMACH HOW COME YOU DONT POST ANY PICKS ON HERE ANYMORE DID THEY RUN YOU OFF JUST LIKE THEY DO EVERY GOOD CAPPER??
1
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
Found another one...value just oozing from this one...the books just can't help themselves and they know the public can't either....Washington... Strasberg -205Miami ... Alcantara +185O/U 7.5The Nats have crushed the Fish the last 2 games...but the Fish come in at 6-4 in their last 10 and had a 4 game winning streak prior to this series....they have been playing near .500 ball over most of June...This pitching matchup should be much closer than the line indicates...thus the value with the Fish here...Washington is 23-22 vs teams .500 or less this year...I will take this value and run with it...
HEY SMACH HOW COME YOU DONT POST ANY PICKS ON HERE ANYMORE DID THEY RUN YOU OFF JUST LIKE THEY DO EVERY GOOD CAPPER??
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