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It's the economy, stupid. The Cubs economy.

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Posted: #1
Anytime I see the public throwing money at a loser I have to take an extra look at the other side. I see plenty of posters think this one is easy, some even willing to lay the run line on a home team (foolish).

The Cubs are a loser in every respect. Overall, at home, in Garza's overall starts, in Garza's home starts, on the money line, and on the run line. How many different ways are there to spell LOSER.

Most folks don't respect Wandy enough, one saying he can't pitch at Wrigley (4 of last 5 were quality starts, 3.09 era) and another saying his trend of losing every other game should continue (I hate trends, the linemakers use them to make the lines).

So, somehow, straight bettors have arrived at the conclusion the Cubs have a better than 61.5% chance to win and run line bettors think it far higher than that, even though the Cubs, if leading by one at 8.5 innings will get only 8 at bats.

That's why I say it's the economy, stupid. The Cubs don't justify this line in any way and I will play......

Astros +150 Rodriguez / Garza
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #2
Key you make some great points...I'm rolling w/ Houston....get that plus money here early.gL
 
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Posted: #3
Sry Key,

Not one of the guys that thinks this will be easy. But on the Cubs for 500/292 ML
 
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Anytime I see the public throwing money at a loser I have to take an extra look at the other side. I see plenty of posters think this one is easy, some even willing to lay the run line on a home team (foolish).

The Cubs are a loser in every respect. Overall, at home, in Garza's overall starts, in Garza's home starts, on the money line, and on the run line. How many different ways are there to spell LOSER.

Most folks don't respect Wandy enough, one saying he can't pitch at Wrigley (4 of last 5 were quality starts, 3.09 era) and another saying his trend of losing every other game should continue (I hate trends, the linemakers use them to make the lines).

So, somehow, straight bettors have arrived at the conclusion the Cubs have a better than 61.5% chance to win and run line bettors think it far higher than that, even though the Cubs, if leading by one at 8.5 innings will get only 8 at bats.

That's why I say it's the economy, stupid. The Cubs don't justify this line in any way and I will play......

Astros +150 Rodriguez / Garza

100% CORRECT! Im on Houston, love the juice!

BOL

 
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Posted: #5
Wandy is a decent pitcher I will give you that but he is no more than a push compared to garza and that Astro line up is a joke even compared to the cubs.

+150 only means something if you win and I don't see that happening with what there throwing out there.

Good health!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by BEILE:

Wandy is a decent pitcher I will give you that but he is no more than a push compared to garza and that Astro line up is a joke even compared to the cubs.

+150 only means something if you win and I don't see that happening with what there throwing out there.

Good health!

 

the astros lineup is no joke. look at their batting average not just their rins scored. also, they are playing for future conract as opposed to playing out existing ones. big difference. there are better teams to fade from here on out than the astros(twins,seattle).

 
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1 guy batting over .300 and 1 guy with double digit home runs, your right they can really rake? They are the Yankees south! They are getting ready to break the 100 loss marker they are historically bad and people are building them up. I love this site!

Good luck bro you are going to need it!
 
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I expect Wandy to be on his game today. Here are a few milestones he will be shooting for:
needs 7 k's to become Houston's first lefty (and 9th pitcher) to reach 1000 k's.A win today would even his career record at 74-74.

Not sure any of that matters but I ain't paying 68 cents of juice to back the cubs that's for sure.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by BEILE:

1 guy batting over .300 and 1 guy with double digit home runs, your right they can really rake? They are the Yankees south! They are getting ready to break the 100 loss marker they are historically bad and people are building them up. I love this site!

Good luck bro you are going to need it!


I don't think anyone is building them up.

Despite the stats you just put out there, it's still the same team that just took 2 of 3 against the team with the best record in the majors.

I don't think I'm playing this one but Key's pointing out that people seem so quick to lay big chalk with a Cubs team that will make you pull out your hair at times. There's just no value in a play like that. Sure...you'll win 6 out of 10 times but if betting were that easy, we'd all be rich.
 
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Posted: #10
u got some points. Goin large on Astros 5 Innings
 
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Houston has the worst road record in baseball. Garza has one of the best home ERA's in all of baseball if not the best. Wandy is good, so should be low scoring, but I'll take Chcago's lineup over Houston's. Chicago for me.
 
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Not all rich, just some
 
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over!!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by E-Muffin:

Houston has the worst road record in baseball. Garza has one of the best home ERA's in all of baseball if not the best. Wandy is good, so should be low scoring, but I'll take Chcago's lineup over Houston's. Chicago for me.


Cueto, Kershaw, Weaver, Lee, Worley, Verlander, Beckett, Vogelsong, Halladay, Hellickson, Haren, Tim Hudson, Hamels, Moscoso and Fister all have better home ERA's than Garza.
 
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Posted: #15
Right, and would you take the Astros over those guys as well??
 
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Quote Originally Posted by weeble5672:



Cueto, Kershaw, Weaver, Lee, Worley, Verlander, Beckett, Vogelsong, Halladay, Hellickson, Haren, Tim Hudson, Hamels, Moscoso and Fister all have better home ERA's than Garza.

 

I would still consider that being one of the top home ERA's in baseball and Houston's lineup is mainly made of call-ups.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by BEILE:

Right, and would you take the Astros over those guys as well??


Great point Beile but shut up already dude you're jinxing us!!! ;)
 
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Quote Originally Posted by BEILE:

Right, and would you take the Astros over those guys as well??


Likely not. But, as I pointed out before, you're missing Key's point about WHY he's betting them.

I'm not saying Houston's going to win this one. I'm just pointing out what Key's saying...if the better team on paper always won, we'd all be rich. If this same team can take 2 of 3 against the best team in baseball, why isn't it possible for them to take this one against the 24th best team in baseball?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by E-Muffin:

 

I would still consider that being one of the top home ERA's in baseball and Houston's lineup is mainly made of call-ups.



This is why betting baseball in September is so difficult. It's these "call-ups" that are competing for a roster spot for next year and will do everything to prove their worth. I advise everyone to bet September baseball without looking at the lineups of guys you've never heard of before. As an example, let's not forget, Roy Halladay was once a September call-up.
 
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Posted: #20
It is possible, it is also more likely to overthink the obvious sometimes just like the lsu game last night for a lot of people. Lsu on paper and too most looking at it would say they should win but people thought that was too obvious which it wasn't.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by weeble5672:



This is why betting baseball in September is so difficult. It's these "call-ups" that are competing for a roster spot for next year and will do everything to prove their worth. I advise everyone to bet September baseball without looking at the lineups of guys you've never heard of before. As an example, let's not forget, Roy Halladay was once a September call-up.

 

You're right. I don't even like to bet baseball at this time, but unfortunately football isn't on every night. I bet pretty small at this time though, so it isn't a huge loss if I lose. GL

 
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Posted: #22
I just played Stros ML and Over for a unit each - this should be a real shit-show 
 
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344 to win 500.... lets go stros
 
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Posted: #24

Key,

Are ALL your plays for the 1st 5 ?????

 
 
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Cubs RL-1 (-108) here.

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