Jack Flaherty

So it's transparent, I don't bet on baseball or post (unless it's after the regular season) but I have very strong knowledge of the sport.  I am blocked from wagering on it due to my work in the business.  So I am NOT posting this as a play but just seeing what others think.

Jack Flaherty being at -200 against Mitch Keller who has a 1.50 ERA in his last 3 games and is 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA in his last 5 is a bit rich for me.  Furthermore, Keller has just over a 2 ERA in away games.  Granted, the LAD will probably win the game but that probability is much lower against both Keller and a Pirates team that is really trying to hold on for a playoff push.  They need this game and Keller will deliver imo.  

The only thing that gets me is that Flaherty is 9-1 with a 2.52 ERA vs. the Bucs so I'm curious as to who others might see as the victor in this matchup.  For reference sake, Keller is 2-2 with a 5+ ERA vs. the Dodgers.  

But with a game line set so high I might jump all over the total and side with the UNDER as well as take a shot with the Pirates, maybe in the 1st half given how their bullpen has fared of late.  Not sure Bednar will be in this game even if the Pirates are winning.  They will need a strong start out of Keller and I think that he delivers.

10-4.  Thanks for sharing.   Pitt has to be tired/frustrated from their last 3 games.  

You have to pay an extra tax on LAD and NYY when betting

I follow the Dodgers pretty closely; listen to their games most nights. Not a fan but like the ole pro Rick Monday's comments. He knows baseball.

I agree. Spot is off @ 40 cents.

Dodgers aren't the same team without Mookie. Just a fact. They are a middle tier team without him. Plus, Ohtani has been striking out a lot lately. .172 BA last seven games. Maybe teams are finally getting a book on how to pitch him. Smith has also been striking out of late... 12 SOs and BA .100 last 7 games. Freddie is back but he can't do it all. Heyward is a shadow of his former ability. The bright spots have been Teo H. and especially Gavin Lux. They've been smoking it.

Maybe F5 or RL with the Bucs looks tempting. F5 is probably a decent play. I think you are on to a good play with the Buccos.

RT2

And it's addition by subtraction as Blednar and Folderman are both not going to be allowed to fuck up the end game tonight.  

Yep, all good points.  And I love Rick Monday too I used to live in LA for an eternity and know this team quite well too.  No Mookie or Muncy has really hurt their ability to score via the HR.  The Dodgers are still getting people on base but the bottom of their lineup is dreadful even worse the games that Will Smith sits.

Just feel in baseball you have to take the calculated risks when given them and tonight is one of them imo.  Everyone will be on LAD and the Dodgers also know that Skenes is around the corner.  Flaherty will be good, don't get me wrong, but O'Neill Cruz is really hitting the ball well and the Bucs have enough firepower to put up runs on the Dodgers staff as the middle relief has been average at best for them.

It's just like UNDERS in baseball these days, they just dont' happen.  And people keep going back to the well.  I tried to warn a handful of people about NRFI just after the All Star Break, that it will reverse course and they will lose a lot of money.  Not because I want anyone to lose, but because this is the trend EVERY year and I know it from my work in the past.  And, as you can see, I think every game but two went YRFI yesterday and since the ASB the YRFI has come in at a very high clip, especially those games priced at -160 and higher for NRFI.

These are just some insights but back to the topic of the thread, I feel too much value for a really good Mitch Keller.  If he loses at least no juice is lost and you can sleep knowing you wagered on a strong pitcher on a relatively competitive team.

@LAGameofInches

 With the ghost runner rule, I wouldn't touch an under bet. Better value on side bets like the Bucs than to waste money betting totals. JMHO

And yes, Bucs should be psyched to play in Dodger Stadium. We'll see how the cookie crumbles.

@LAGameofInches

 When you have a closer named "Bednar", you have zero chance of making a playoff run.

The Pirates are like the Tigers, they do just enough to gain public love and then they bankrupt them!

Nice write up

looks like a u 4 1st 5

Pirates bullpen is shot.. high leverage games that overused them the last week or so not counting they have the 4th worse bullpen ERA in baseball and are awful aside from Chapman. Who’s available? Dodgers had the day off while Pirates played yesterday and had to fly cross country after 2 heartbreaking losses. Pirates 1st 5 RL if anything if u backing the pirates. 

im playing u4 and u8.

It's friday night not saturday.

Both pitchers solid enough to get through 5 at least.

Also Pirates have 23 blown saves/leads late in games./ only the CWS has more at 29… 

@davemsh

 so you can bet u4 1st 5 and u8 fg. then after you cash 1st 5 bet live total accordingly. 

I've Gotta Feelin!!!

Oh Yeah!

I think there are some valid points regarding FG UNDER and any extra innings. I think the only way the game goes OVER in the F5 is if Pittsburgh can somehow get to Flaherty.   Moreover, the Pirates bullpen is indeed shot with all those gaffes against SD.  I actually like the Padres to LOSE tonight as they will come in a bit overconfident imo and the Marlins playing spoilers with nothing to lose for them so it's a dangerous spot.

Honestly can't wait for NFL, have had 6 straight winning seasons and hoping to continue that.  Soccer is around the corner and I'm going to make it a point to continually cash  there too.  Posting soccer is tough with early games as I live on PST but will do my best.  I was HORRIBLE in NBA this year, even in the playoffs, just had to stop.  Usually that's one of my top leagues.  But much like MLB, the overall game and landscape has changed.  Lots of load management, guys sit out last minute, etc..  In MLB, it's more the injuries with a pitch clock to respect and every guy trying to throw 100.  

The days of Greg Maddox are long behind us.

The problem with lying all the time is you forget the previous lies and trip over them with your latest lie:

The problem with lying all the time is you forget the previous lies and trip over them with your latest lie:

it's free/public sportsbetting info/chat website....I assume everybody is lying, more or less

I generally like good 'value' spots and a team like Pittsburgh who.is fighting for a WC spot is solid value tonight with a guy like Keller on the bump.

We will see...not sure where the hatred comes from.  And spreading hate bro.  Grow up.  Follow me NFL or in any sports, no problem.  It's actions that speak louder than words.  Anyways, not at all anything constructive nor about the posting.  Good luck 

Okay..."tail" Pitt, if they lose, maybe come back w/ the good odds again...one game at a time...

@VeritasAlways

 Damn

Dammmmmmmmmmmmm. *chris tucker from friday voice*

I took dodgers.  Figured after philly and day rest they would play well…. And Pitt had tough series and lost … so I think they see their chances at post season fading.  Your logic was solid… but logic in baseball has me behind…    I do poorly in baseball as a whole.   

Knew this was post was gonna be pure ass