What up all!? Long time, no post. Hope everyone is well.
Thought I'd throw this one out to the forum b/c I really like this opportunity. Baseball is about momentum and it appears Milwaukee grabbed all of it last night, right? No, I don't think so. In the 2nd half, no team has been hotter than the NY Mets. They went 20-10 to close out the regular season and secure that final wildcard spot. And that includes taking a dive in the last game. So, we'll call it 20-9. They've been playing with a sense of urgency for 2 months now. Tonight is more of the same.
On the other hand, Milwaukee was a 500 club to close out the season and were sitting on a playoff spot the entire time. Before this series, I'm not sure they can remember the last time they played with a sense of urgency.
In tonight's pitching match up, we get a savvy veteran vs an unproven rookie. Anyone can see Quintana has had a resurgence this year. However, he's been at his best this past month. The 35 year old is 3-1 with a 0.72 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 2.95 xFIP, and opponents are hitting .176 against him. He's given up just 3 runs in his last 36 innings.
Tobias Myers will take the ball for Milwaukee. He's a decent pitcher with a nice future, but they're already worried about him wearing down. In fact, he hasn't pitched past the 4th inning in any of his last 3 starts. He's also 3-1 in Sept, but his numbers are much more pedestrian at; 3.03 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and opponents are hitting .274 against. He's given up 13 runs in his last 30 innings pitched.
Over the last 30 days, the Mets offense ranks 11th in MLB, while the Brewers come in at 21. The Mets are 11th in wRC+, 12th in OPS, and 11th in wOBA. During the same time frame, the Brewers are 22nd in wRC+, 22nd OPS, and 22nd wOBA. Ironically, the Brewers offensive production is even worse at home, falling to 29th, 28th, and 28th respectively. In addition, the Mets rank 12th vs right handed pitching, while the Brewers ranks 21st vs left handed.
Over the course of the year, you can give Milwaukee's bullpen the edge. However, in the past 30, it's pretty much a wash. And again, one team has been playing playoff baseball while the other has been going through the motions. Phil Maton melted down last night, not the Mets nor the rest of the pen. We won't see Maton tonight. And I don't think the Mets are going to let a 20 year old kid and Garrett Mitchell beat them again. If they do, I'll tip my hat.
Give me the better team, the hotter team, and the veteran pitcher over a rookie. I'm on the Mets at +117.
Wishing everyone the best of luck. 
of Miller beer so he can drown his sorrows away.
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