Arizona Team Total OVER 4 Runs -125…………………LARGE
This is a little more juice than I would like to risk, but OVER 4 is a far better number than 4.5 because of the opportunity to PUSH. If you like this play, get it early because I just can’t see it not going to 4.5. I also just can’t see how the Diamondbacks don’t put up at least 4 runs in this game and I expect them to score at least 5 or more.
Arizona’s bat have woken up and for some reason they seem to love Petco Park. Maybe it is the incredible West Coast weather and getting out of the desert but they seem to thrive at this park winning all 5 games there in the past 2 months and scoring 9, 5, 5, 9 and 6 runs.
The Diamondbacks come into this game hot winning 4 of their last 5 games on the road and scoring an average of 6.4 runs per game. With 68 wins, they are leading the NL West, but know they have to keep winning with both Colorado and the LA Dodgers chasing them with 66 wins each.
Tonight they catch a Lefty Pitcher in Clayton Richards who is in a little bit of a tailspin. Richards has struggled in his last 5 starts going 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA and getting only 10K’s in 26 Innings and giving up 6 HR’s.
In Richard’s last 5 games/26 Innings he has given up 22 runs or almost 1 run/inning.
Then consider that the Diamondbacks are best against Left Handed Pitchers hitting 18 points higher than they do against RH Pitchers.
The only thing I don’t like is that Richard is a better Pitcher at home, but I think that is offset by how well the Diamondback’s hit lefties and how much they seem to like Petco Park.
Finally, the Diamondbacks are one of the most heavily bet consensus teams tonight and if the are that strong of a play to win the game they will have to score more than 4 runs IMO.
May have something else today, but still looking at some numbers.
BOL!!!
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