laying more than 130 in baseball is financial suicide

Question

Use your heads guys. Take a statistics course at your local University. Laying more than 130, even 120 over the long term will prove to blow you out. Even if you are picking at a 55% clip which of course most of you are not, you will still lose. Think about it. I don&#x27;t care if you win 15 favorites in a row you will eventually lose and possibly lose big if you are routinely laying wood.

vamosrafa · Answer

Use your heads guys. Take a statistics course at your local University. Laying more than 130, even 120 over the long term will prove to blow you out. Even if you are picking at a 55% clip which of course most of you are not, you will still lose. Think about it. I don&#x27;t care if you win 15 favorites in a row you will eventually lose and possibly lose big if you are routinely laying wood.

rayallen1920 · Answer

we need more people like u to speak the truth

vamosrafa · Answer

Its a fact not speculation. It amazines me how it goes over people heads, especially the "professional" handicappers. Whenever I see a handicapper laying 150, 170, etc in baseball I know he is a joke. You can&#x27;t win that way. Impossible. Do these guys really not know that themselves? These dudes that claim to be in the industry 25 years and such, they haven&#x27;t figured out from their depleted bank accounts that laying wood is a path to doom? Incredible.

underrated · Answer

Its not about the odds, its about picking the right games.  For instance Carpenter at home to SF the other day was -163.  That was definately worth a pick, they will win that 2/3 times.  But then the next night it was Wainwright with the same amount of juice, that, which unfortunately I also bet on, was not worth it.  Just because juice is 120&#x2B; doesnt mean it can&#x27;t be a good pick.  You just have to be selective.

Wheelhouse26 · Answer

Agree with you totally on this one.  But people continue to do it and why the books make money.  They know the suckers love the big names and heavy lines.

rayallen1920 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by underrated] &#xD;&#xA;Its not about the odds, its about picking the right games.  For instance Carpenter at home to SF the other day was -163.  That was definately worth a pick, they will win that 2/3 times.  But then the next night it was Wainwright with the same amount of juice, that, which unfortunately I also bet on, was not worth it.  Just because juice is 120&#x2B; doesnt mean it can&#x27;t be a good pick.  You just have to be selective.&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;there is no right pick or pick thats worth it when your laying 160 for 100

TRAIN69 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by underrated] &#xD;&#xA;Its not about the odds, its about picking the right games.  For instance Carpenter at home to SF the other day was -163.  That was definately worth a pick, they will win that 2/3 times.  But then the next night it was Wainwright with the same amount of juice, that, which unfortunately I also bet on, was not worth it.  Just because juice is 120&#x2B; doesnt mean it can&#x27;t be a good pick.  You just have to be selective.&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; ......every game is a seperate event.....cap the game and chose.....but chose wisely.....

DV66 · Answer

It&#x27;s not that there aren&#x27;t winners that are -120 and higher lays; but in those potential plays, risk and reward is whacked and really exposes bankroll should you take a position....should always look for the value plays...just my take..GL  &#xD;&#xA;DV

Mike_NYC · Answer

Heavy faves

HappyKane · Answer

I like to lay.

vamosrafa · Answer

Like I said, the new sports bettor or the weekend gambler is one thing, but the "professional" cappers that lay wood cannot be taken seriously. Sorry. If I see them do it even one time I know the guy can&#x27;t be real at least not in baseball. Some sports like Tennis you have to lay wood, routinely 150 and sometime even to 200 depending on the situation. But that is totally differend as there are less variables. Its just ttwo guys you have to cap. Not starting pictehrs, righty vs lefty matchups, managers, bullpens, closers, umpires, etc. To lay more then 130 in baseball is just plain retarded no matter the situation. Over the long term its a loser even if you are at 55% and again, most bettors/cappers have a tough time getting to 55%. If you are at 55% you are a good GOOD capper. But guess what? You&#x27;ll only make money of you are laying less than 130. Really its less than 120.....

HappyKane · Answer

I like girls that like to lay.

Superfigg · Answer

laying juice is not good, but sometimes situations and or line movements call for it ..

HappyKane · Answer

One time, at Stat Camp...

vamosrafa · Answer

nothing I repeat NOTHING calls for laying over 130 in baseball on any team, any pitcher,any day, in any situation. Discipline besides hard statistical analysis of the obvious is what separates winners from losers in baseball betting. You need to stay disciplined and never lay over 130. Ever. Its dumb. Especially in the days of today where there are no bullpens. You could make a perfect call on a pitcher laying 145 and he pitches 8 shutout innings just like you and your money expected, only to have some bumm middle reliever come in walk two batters then give up a HR and you lose. You were right to bet that starter but wrong to lay any wood becuase you forgot that there are too many variables in baseball mainly horrible bullpens.

justwin99 · Answer

Nothing wrong with laying juice.  Yes it hurts when your -170 loses and you lose 1000 that would have only won 650 and the other way would have given you 1500 on top of your 1000.  Still, thats why they are the underdog, they are not supposed to win and if everything worked out perfectly they would.  It takes miracle breaks, quarters of inches when a ball hits a bat, and release points off by a fraction of a second by pitchers that give these underdogs victories.  You have to take each game separtley and understand that you do not need to make a bet everynight in order to win.  Sometimes when you feel the breaks piling up against you take some time off or really limit your bets and dont chase because it makes it worse.  Yankees cost me 3000 plus 4000 of winnings I would have had on them alone and a parlay I had them in.  As the game was winding down I was waiting for the collapse becasue I could feel something eery about winning too much today.  You are never allowed to win every bet in a day once you go over 2 bets.  Its an unwritten gambling god rule.

PALLADIUM · Answer

I was going over the past few weeks and most days if you took all the dogs you would win even if your 6-8.  This might be my new strategy

smitty519 · Answer

If you limit yourself to -130 favs or less i think your probable going to leave some winners on the board. If you play favorites and dogs its gonna even out. Just hit above 55% thats the name of the game.

vamosrafa · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by justwin99] &#xD;&#xA;Nothing wrong with laying juice.  Yes it hurts when your -170 loses and you lose 1000 that would have only won 650 and the other way would have given you 1500 on top of your 1000.  Still, thats why they are the underdog, they are not supposed to win and if everything worked out perfectly they would.  It takes miracle breaks, quarters of inches when a ball hits a bat, and release points off by a fraction of a second by pitchers that give these underdogs victories.  You have to take each game separtley and understand that you do not need to make a bet everynight in order to win.  Sometimes when you feel the breaks piling up against you take some time off or really limit your bets and dont chase because it makes it worse.  Yankees cost me 3000 plus 4000 of winnings I would have had on them alone and a parlay I had them in.  As the game was winding down I was waiting for the collapse becasue I could feel something eery about winning too much today.  You are never allowed to win every bet in a day once you go over 2 bets.  Its an unwritten gambling god rule.&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;Take a statistics course. You will not feel the way you feel now. Not even close. Hard numbers never lie. This aint conjecture, its fact. No escaping facts. I seriously doubt you are a 55% player and if you are you should consider opening up an advisory service. But even if by some longshot you are a 55% player, if you are laying on average say 140 you are losing money pal. get it?

HappyKane · Answer

Baseball is retarded in the sense that any chump can bet on 6 underdogs everyday for a month and end up with plus money.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Only in baseball can this be done.

vamosrafa · Answer

Baseball betting is simple. Look for all games where there is a favorite of more than 130. Now take a black marker and cross them off your board. Now start breaking down all the remaining games/teams and try to find some winners. If you are 52% on even money games you are winning. If you are 52% on underdogs you are winning more money. If you are 53, 54, 55% now you are really winning some serious cash. Bottom line? Cross every 135&#x2B; favorite off your board and analyze the games for a possible underdog in those games as well as all other games and hope you are in the 51-55% range on your picks.

Mike_NYC · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by HappyKane]  Baseball is retarded in the sense that any chump can bet on 6 underdogs everyday for a month and end up with plus money.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Only in baseball can this be done.  [/Quote]

HappyKane · Answer

Mike_NYC - I&#x27;m talking about dogs only. &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Not against the consensus numbers. But i know it just so happens that most dogs aren&#x27;t the most popular picks.

Mike_NYC · Answer

It takes discipline to bet dogs and non-popular picks, day in and day out.Nobody wants to be on the shitty team that&#x27;s supposed to lose. Certainly not every day.

underrated · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by vamosrafa] &#xD;&#xA;Baseball betting is simple. Look for all games where there is a favorite of more than 130. Now take a black marker and cross them off your board. Now start breaking down all the remaining games/teams and try to find some winners. If you are 52% on even money games you are winning. If you are 52% on underdogs you are winning more money. If you are 53, 54, 55% now you are really winning some serious cash. Bottom line? Cross every 135&#x2B; favorite off your board and analyze the games for a possible underdog in those games as well as all other games and hope you are in the 51-55% range on your picks.&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;You&#x27;re using 55% too broadly here.  IT could be argued that smart people win 60% of their picks with juice of -130 but maybe 51% of the rest of the tight games, therefore taking this juice would be worth it.  Yea its hard to win 55% of your picks, but who says its hard to win 60% of picks with 130&#x2B; juice on it??

laying more than 130 in baseball is financial suicide

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