Quote Originally Posted by vamosrafa:
I may lose all three games I bet tonight - SEA-PHI- and I already lost with Pitt, but look at what will happen to the Halladay bettor tonight- they will lose more on a single game than I lost in 3 games, and 2 games I haven't lost yet........ Dont ever lay over 130 if you wanna win in baseball. Do the work on the 110-115-120 games and get your winners from there. No need to ever lay over 130, ever.
LMAO....Ok Ok...just one more, then that is it, I swear..lol.... Ok..... Team A is a -200 fav (way above your line in the sand), you know, we know, and everyone knows that Team A would beat Team B on the said field, with said pitchers, said lineups, said conditions entirely, 4 of 5 games minimum. Your theory says this is a bad bet b/c those of us that take this bet cannot be taken seriously, I am correct in these facts yes?
Now,...... "basic math" as you call it.
You make this bet 5 times for a dime per play, how much do you win or lose?
Answer for the cocky genuis:
+$1,000
Ok, here is another......... not giving you opinions, just taking the science of math, probabilities, and scenarios....
we flip a coin, and I offer to pay you $10 for every time the coin lands heads 5 times in a row, but you pay me $5 everytime the coin lands heads, for 1,000 flips, now I am laying you 2-1 odds (or taking a -200 favorite.... by your hypothesis, this would be a bad bet, yes? lol..... no, no, no, don't say "only in baseball", because what we do is lay money with the best of it, in whatever we know well enough to effectively investigate enough, and detailed enough so that we can calculate on a table that this envent will play out in our favor this many times, and use a simple calculator to determine if it is a profitable play. I am no expert in coin flipping, but take the above bet and I am bringing my entire bankroll to the party. In short, your theory is pathetically misguided, and off base.