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Mavin's MLB Contest

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Posted: #1476

Bigdaddy86 0-2-1 -249

CIN REDS  ML  +125

 

Going with the hotter team here the Reds have been hitting the ball well over the last week and ST Louis has been cold.

 

BOS Red Sox  ML  -115

 

Going with a another win streak here Boston has won 5 in a row and has Lester on the mound tonight. Toronto has really missed Reyes on the top of there lineup

 

NY Yankees TT Over 4.5 -125

 

Humber has been getting pounded!

 
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Posted: #1477

I hope I got the format right

My 9 year old son is better on the computer than I am

 
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Posted: #1478
MikeTizzy   36-27-2  +1216$

crazy games last night for my Oak cover! 

i had logged this last night, but havnt had chance to post.

Under 8 NY Mets - FLA Marlins  -110

super late game last night here as well! stanton and wright out respectively for both ballclubs, great line value with these 2 pitchers and bullpens of late.
anemic bats as well. Ball park dynamics definitely adds value here!
 
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Posted: #1479
just read ur pick Aleiverson!

sry man, theres so many metrics that control an Under 7.5 total, i have 8 so even better. Im not sure what u do with system, but after this game ends, lets assess and improve it!  From all measurables there is no way over is a 65%+ here. Lineup dynamics, cold bats, tough righties, bullpens, ballpark, maybe weather but nothing major there from what i got, everything.
 
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Posted: #1480
I also had Overs on all of my picks.

Given the trends:

A's ML
Mariners ML
Mariners - Orioles Over

Should all be good... 

 
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Posted: #1481
Diamondbacks are within the trend but Ash says Giants are going to win so...

Diamondbacks - Giants Over

Should be good.

 
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Posted: #1482
like those picks matt! and we knew one of the pitchers in the was-atl game was gonna get touched up.. we were just hoping it was huddy not gio lol
 
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Posted: #1483
Quote Originally Posted by ashylarrymp:

like those picks matt! and we knew one of the pitchers in the was-atl game was gonna get touched up.. we were just hoping it was huddy not gio lol

Like I eluded to earlier in the day... I think Braves stole the game last night when they flawlessly manufactured that 3rd run. I'm pretty sure all the money has been on Braves to this point, even the Braves winning the series at plus money... Is it Christmas in Nevada?
 
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Posted: #1484
adding:

Under 7.5 TB Rays - KC Royals

Great starters here with pens to back them, Super winds blowing in helps, KC seems to hav cooled off, and it continues vs tough hot Cobb and Shields is up against former mates, does what he does and eat innings and limits damage.
 
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Posted: #1485
Jays get 3 unearned runs in 3rd on bonehead play by salty. Boston not out of this.
 
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Posted: #1486

Musicmatt1  53-25-3  +2096$

 

WAS Nationals  ML  -133


Simondog Monday''47-30  +1319$

NY Mets  ML -159

NY Yankees  ML  -245

PIT Pirates  ML  +112

MikeTizzy   35-25-2  +1281$

DET Tigers -1.5  -120

KC Royals -1.5  +130

OAK Athletics -1.5   +155

Cuben2006 21-14-3 +465$  

Under 7.5 ATl Brave - WAS Nat -125 

SF Giant ML +105  

Bigdaddy86 0-0-0

BAL Orioles  ML -110

KC Royals  ML -139

Over 9  CLE Indians-KC Royals -101

natalieportman9  40-39  +138$

MIL Brewers ML -1.5 +165

HOU Astros TT Over 3 +110   

HOU Astros ML +225

AshyLarryMP 39-40-4 -645$

NY Mets -.5 First 5 Innings -110

WAS Nationals ML -122

NY Yankees -.5 First 5 Innings -150

greengiants 29-36 -777$

Under 7.5 LA Dodgers - COL Rockies +100

Under 7.5 NY Yankees - Houston Astros -112

Under 7.5 SEA Mariners - BAL Orioles -120

aleiverson02 0-0 +$0

Over 7.5 NY Yankees - HOU Astros +100

Over 8.5 AZ Diamondback - SF Giants -110  
 
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Posted: #1487
29

-550$

9-13-1


 
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Posted: #1488
Hold off on A's game gents... Weird movement. Even lines right now. Angels just turned to slight $$ public favorite.
 
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Posted: #1489
April  1-10    152-122-6    +2,489$

April 11-20   159-153-25  -1,475$

21    16-15-2  +52$

22    19-14-3  +348$

23     7-17-4   -1345$

24      9-9-1       -9$

25      16-7     +1093$

26      9-13-1    -384$

27      13-9      +427$

28      10-9-1    +99$

29      9-13-1    -550$
----------------------------------------------

Total  419-381-49   +745$
 
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Posted: #1490
Quote Originally Posted by aleiverson02:

we should indidivual win streaks going, or last 10 to see whos hot, so people don't get fooled if someone has a bad record but has won 9 out of 10 picks you know?
Everyday begins with 0-0. You better remember that because that is the fact. Hot and cold is a fiction and a hindsight product. Otherwise everyone would be simply tailing Streak Survivor and making millions. This is about learning and a TEAM EFFORT
 
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Posted: #1491
Hi Mavin, what does the orange mean? it was crazy 19 inner, with 2 run Moss walk-off, crazy cardiac A's does it again. 

Hi matt, lets jam some thoughts. The most stubborn one here is def Simon, who is like -1200$ since he climbed to +2k$ on a furious run to start the season. Ive inputting many metric based ideas to guiding better selections, and it seems Simon is too-old school like Hawk Harrelson?   

Matt i like ur analysis on lines, Cle from what i saw matched up extremely well vs Doc, and headin back home helped much. But it seems to be u became bery bias towards the Nats, might wanna address that. ATL jus matches up neck to neck with these guys, if not better, because of a godly pen. Gio been inconsistent this yr, and Hudson is good steady saavyness. I still remember him from big 3 in Oak! hes been great for awhile now.
 
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Posted: #1492

Musicmatt1  53-26-3  +1963$

 

WAS Nationals  ML  -109

 

CLE Indians  ML  -105

 

SEA Mariners  ML  +102


MikeTizzy   36-27-2  +1216$


Under 8 NY Mets - FLA Marlins  -110

Under 7.5 TB Rays - KC Royals


Cuben2006 23-14-3 +670$


NY Mets ML -120 


natalieportman9 43-39 +638$


TB Rays ML +121

Over 7 COL Rockies - LA Dodgers +105

BOS Red Sox ML -123



 
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Posted: #1493

Bigdaddy86 0-2-1 -249

CIN Reds  ML  +125


BOS Red Sox  ML  -115


NY Yankees TT Over 4.5 -125


AshyLarryMP 40-42-4 -$722

SEA Mariners ML +100

CLE Indians ML -101

TOR Blue Jays ML +106

greengiants 29-39 -1077$

Over 7 ATL Braves - WAS Nationals -120

WAS Nationals ML +103

Under 8 MIL Brewers - PIT Pirates +100

aleiverson02 2-0 +210$

Over 7.5 NY Mets - MIA Marlins -115

Over 8.5 BOS RedSox - TOR Blue Jays -113
 
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Posted: #1494
Quote Originally Posted by MikeTizzy:

Hi Mavin, what does the orange mean? it was crazy 19 inner, with 2 run Moss walk-off, crazy cardiac A's does it again. 

Hi matt, lets jam some thoughts. The most stubborn one here is def Simon, who is like -1200$ since he climbed to +2k$ on a furious run to start the season. Ive inputting many metric based ideas to guiding better selections, and it seems Simon is too-old school like Hawk Harrelson?   

Matt i like ur analysis on lines, Cle from what i saw matched up extremely well vs Doc, and headin back home helped much. But it seems to be u became bery bias towards the Nats, might wanna address that. ATL jus matches up neck to neck with these guys, if not better, because of a godly pen. Gio been inconsistent this yr, and Hudson is good steady saavyness. I still remember him from big 3 in Oak! hes been great for awhile now.
Why? What's wrong with Orange? You like to be Pink? I decide who is what color here!!! (Reservoire Dogs) Ha Ha Ha
Just pressed the wrong color
 
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Posted: #1495
Yes, Nats biased but the line read that way. Over was the better play and my bias prevented me from using that for the contest. GG made the right call!

The contest is just an outline of my predictions for the day. I was more open with my other predictions today because I think we can all better ourselves from talking about it.

I am not old or new school in my thought process. I believe every ideology has a place here and can contribute to our betterment. I myself can see the arguments each way. 

You have great input and have been good at sharing. I'd like to learn more about your metrics. How it accounts for "human" variables.

The greatest thing we can do is eliminate the bets that are the riskiest and narrow it down to 3. The old school and new school approaches can be used to help calculate risk.


 
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Posted: #1496
Does anyone else notice the Giants line is almost the same as Braves line today? Braves defied my pick. I think it may because they ended positive odds...

Either way the Over is looking great there...

Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #1497
Quote Originally Posted by Musicmatt1:

Does anyone else notice the Giants line is almost the same as Braves line today? Braves defied my pick. I think it may because they ended positive odds...

Either way the Over is looking great there...

Thoughts?

Defied my TREND
 
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Posted: #1498
adding :

Over 8.5 ARIZONA Diamondback - SF Giant

Over is 42-17 following a win for giants
 
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Posted: #1499
i like the over too matt.. giants bats are clicking and bumgarner not great #'s lifetime @ arz.. and arz off a loss should be hungry.. my prediction, giants and the over 

didn't bet though.. so not 100% on it, but i watch every game 
 
 
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Posted: #1500
Well said tizzy and matt
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