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Mavin's MLB Contest

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Rookie
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Posts: 526
Posted: #1526
Quote Originally Posted by Musicmatt1:


It's funny how we discussed all the early games and came up with the same parlay and 2 of the same picks...  I think we had like 6 we felt comfortable with.


yeah it was tough to narrow down lol!
 
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Posts: 442
Posted: #1527
Quote Originally Posted by DJG1986:

Oakland is actually a small public favorite today, also sharp money came in on Oakland when line opened, moved them from a dog to a favorite. GL.

Correct, I meant LA a public favorite.  I was confusing the number of another game I was looking at.  I am seeing 59% of Public on Angels today?

Do we have a consensus on where we find the best percentages?
 
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Posted: #1528
I usually just stick to covers, gamblers making a consesus. I don't trust the numbers that come from sites like "vegasinsider". Maybe because the site has the name Vegas in it and its supposed to be information/help for gamblers...
 
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Posts: 410
Posted: #1529
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

Everyday begins with 0-0. You better remember that because that is the fact. Hot and cold is a fiction and a hindsight product. Otherwise everyone would be simply tailing Streak Survivor and making millions. This is about learning and a TEAM EFFORT

Ok sounds good, I'm ovbiously new to this stuff but I really do enjoy it. When you say 0-0 thats figuratively speaking right? So when I post my picks for the day I post my full on record that I have in your contest. Also how are you adding up the money made? I went 2-0 and just put +2 units since I'm doing 1 unit a bet these days, but you had me at like $210.. Just want to have everything roll smoothely. Thanks Mavin and the rest of the team!
 
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Posted: #1530
Quote Originally Posted by MikeTizzy:

just read ur pick Aleiverson!

sry man, theres so many metrics that control an Under 7.5 total, i have 8 so even better. Im not sure what u do with system, but after this game ends, lets assess and improve it!  From all measurables there is no way over is a 65%+ here. Lineup dynamics, cold bats, tough righties, bullpens, ballpark, maybe weather but nothing major there from what i got, everything.

I really felt that since they played all night last night there would be erros. Also my system which is hard to explain with out giving it away was on the right side in that game. I acutally should have gone under but sort of used inner emotion and gut to go over. Good call on the under Mikey!
 
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Posts: 410
Posted: #1531
Quote Originally Posted by MikeTizzy:

wow fellas, got a perfect card going so far! and the rest of my other picks i logged on mlb covers.

adding last one:

really need another 3-0 day here, and this should secure it for me.

Under 8.5 OAK Athletics - LA Angels  -110



after longest game in A's history, there's the same effects as in the MIA/NYM game here. This game ended when ppl were waking up.
ok as far as lineups, a lot of key bats out for both squads, contrary to public belief whos clamoring for another Over, since the A's are MONEYBALL with 22-5 record on overs this year. This game is a no go there. Ill give u scouts of Parker, hes not half as bad as he seems, his mechanics should be back and he gets real comfy @ o.Co. He matches up very well to this tired angels lineup, only Aybar has actually hit him well last year, and hes leading off fresh off DL. Parkers gets him out, and the lineup should be ok. According to Pitch f/x, Parkers has way better stuff than richards. Richards is actually bad on road as well. So Cardiac A's at home wins again i say. Bullpens favor A's big as well here. They still hav a few hot bats left vs Richards.

Mikey, is this for todays game? I really like the over and I was actually about to post saying I was taking the over. My system has the A's about even in O/U in this perticular situation but def leaning towards over. The Angels on the other hand are 1-9 on unders meaning its basically theres huge percentage according to my system that it goes over. I got the A's on the game also. 

On another note I apreciate you guys all wanting to improve my system and I wish I could just tell you guys it so we could all make it un beatable but the problem is my partner who created it brought me in. I do stat work for him in return for the system and its picks and he wants to sell the picks so if I told you guys the system with out his approval it would totally diminish what me and my buddy have going business wise and personal wise. Anyways good luck everyone! Let get that money!
 
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Posted: #1532
aleiverson02 3-1 + 2 units? ( not sure how you guys calculate the money here)

Over 8 OAK Athletics - LA Angels -130 ( Bought half a point)

I believe its 3 games now that the Angels and Oak have played that have gone over, and the public has been right every time. They are a huge over favorite today and I love it, the public has been hot as hell the past couple days especially with yesterday just killing the books. Also my system has the Angels having a 1 in 9 chance of going under. Anyways I'll have my other 2 picks up later. 
 
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Posted: #1533
Quote Originally Posted by aleiverson02:


Mikey, is this for todays game? I really like the over and I was actually about to post saying I was taking the over. My system has the A's about even in O/U in this perticular situation but def leaning towards over. The Angels on the other hand are 1-9 on unders meaning its basically theres huge percentage according to my system that it goes over. I got the A's on the game also. 

On another note I apreciate you guys all wanting to improve my system and I wish I could just tell you guys it so we could all make it un beatable but the problem is my partner who created it brought me in. I do stat work for him in return for the system and its picks and he wants to sell the picks so if I told you guys the system with out his approval it would totally diminish what me and my buddy have going business wise and personal wise. Anyways good luck everyone! Let get that money!

We've never actually discussed this in any of the forums I believe, but I would feel safe in saying there would be more money made in betting the plays than selling them.

I see this all the time in my field of business.  Companies that do not have a Human Resource Manager or Office; struggle to find the time to do the hiring process without interfering with their actual business goal.

In terms of what you are suggesting.  You have to put thought in to picks.  It takes time and energy.  You and your buddy will use time selling and sending picks, it should hurt your analysis on your picks at some point.

I am not suggesting posting all your thoughts to your system here either, because you'd have to imagine Vegas scouts places like this to better their line setting.  What I do believe is that there are people here that could help you to improve the system.

 
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Posted: #1534
47-33. $898+

SimonDog Wednesday.
Never force a play...nothing wrong with taking a step back.. and deep breath...

NY Mets ML -132
Met with a pair of heart Breakers.. Dont see a sweep in Miami...

COL Rockies +125
I like Nicasio and that fastball.. he is hitting almost 100 now and seem to have full control..

CLE Indians +123
Spot start for Indians hurler Trevor Bauer, Never easy to face a guy you have not seen... so runs may be at premium today.. .and This guy is pretty solid.. 24 KO in last 18 innings..
I will give him a shot today
 
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Posted: #1535
AshyLarryMP 42-43-4 -$616

Over 8.5 TOR BlueJays - BOS RedSox -115

Under 7.5 CLE Indians -  PHI Phillies -105

Under 4 First 5 innings CLE Indians - PHI Phillies -115


feel this bluejays total is set very high.. and i know buherle shouldnt be able to hold down this redsox team to 3er or less.. i see him giving up 4.. and buchholz is hot but don't see him throwing a sho here.. feel jays bats are hot and will put up runs today.. another 6-4 kind of game today, jays have a shot at winning this one, just liked over more.

really feel trevor bauer should throw well today, phillies haven't seen him before, therefore he should throw well first few frames around the order, think this time when he's called up he'll be more prepared for what hes about to face and more confident... and i trust cliff lee vs his old team, kind of like shields vs rays yesterday, the team will be motivated to play D behind him.. making the under 4 first 5 a good play.. i'll trust the bullpens to hold it down for me last few innings.. i can see indians winning this game 3-2, 4-2 kind of game.

side note: like the diamondbacks to win tonight.. atleast like them the first 5 innings.. don't see lincecum sweeping them in their house, it'd be nice, but dbacks should touch him up a bit (goldschmidt vs lincecum:8-14 lifetime 5hr's)


 
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Posted: #1536
natalieportman9 44-41 +520$

TEX Rangers -1.5 +170

Rangers great home hitting team vs the terrible road hitting white sox.  Edge to rangers rested bullpen.  Rangers effective this year vs lefties.  I will take great value in the run line.

LA Dodgers TT Over 4 +100

Fading Nicasio in LA.  Edge to the Dodger lineup with Hanley back in it.  Dodgers lineup can only improve on how bad they have been at home.

BAL Orioles -1.5 +120

Taking another run line here.  Fading Harang.  Seattle will struggle vs the lefty Chen.  I don't see Baltimore not jumping all over Harang.


 
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Posted: #1537

Musicmatt1  53-26-3  +1963$

 

WAS Nationals  ML  -109

 

CLE Indians  ML  -105

 

SEA Mariners  ML  +102


MikeTizzy   36-27-2  +1216$


Under 8 NY Mets - FLA Marlins  -110

Under 7.5 TB Rays - KC Royals

Under 8.5 OAK Athletics - LA Angels  -110


Cuben2006 23-14-3 +670$


NY Mets ML -120 


Over 8.5 ARI Diamondback - SF Giant 


natalieportman9 43-39 +638$


TB Rays ML +121

Over 7 COL Rockies - LA Dodgers +105

BOS Red Sox ML -123
 
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Posted: #1538

Bigdaddy86 0-2-1 -249

CIN Reds  ML  +125


BOS Red Sox  ML  -115


NY Yankees TT Over 4.5 -125


AshyLarryMP 40-42-4 -$722

SEA Mariners ML +100

CLE Indians ML -101

TOR Blue Jays ML +106

greengiants 29-39 -1077$

Over 7 ATL Braves - WAS Nationals -120

WAS Nationals ML +103

Under 8 MIL Brewers - PIT Pirates +100

aleiverson02 2-0 +210$

Over 7.5 NY Mets - MIA Marlins -115

Over 8.5 BOS RedSox - TOR Blue Jays -113
 
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Posted: #1539
-701$

8-14


 
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Posted: #1540
April  1-10    152-122-6    +2,489$

April 11-20   159-153-25  -1,475$

21    16-15-2  +52$

22    19-14-3  +348$

23     7-17-4   -1345$

24      9-9-1       -9$

25      16-7     +1093$

26      9-13-1    -384$

27      13-9      +427$

28      10-9-1    +99$

29      9-13-1    -550$

30        8-14     -701$
----------------------------------------------

Total  427-395-49   +44$
 
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Posted: #1541
May 1

Musicmatt1  54-28-3  +1854$

 

Under 8.5  DET Tigers - MIN Twins  -110

 

OAK Athletics  ML  -125


MikeTizzy 37-28-2  +1096$


OAK Athletics -1.5  +170

DET Tigers -1.5  -115


SimonDog 47-33. +898$

NY Mets ML -132

COL Rockies +125 

CLE Indians +123

natalieportman9 44-41 +520$

TEX Rangers -1.5 +170.

LA Dodgers TT Over 4 +100.

BAL Orioles -1.5 +120

cuben2006 23-16-3 +445$

CIN Reds ML +115

aleiverson02 3-1 +195$

Over 8 OAK Athletics - LA Angels -130 

AshyLarryMP 42-43-4 -$616

Over 8.5 TOR BlueJays - BOS RedSox -115

Under 7.5 CLE Indians -  PHI Phillies -105

Under 4 First 5 innings CLE Indians - PHI Phillies -115

greengiants 30-41 -1197$

Under 8.5 DET Tigers - MIN Twins -107

Under 7 STL Cardinals - CIN Reds +120

OAK Athletics -1 +128
 
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Posted: #1542
adding

CHI Wsox ML +110

sale is looking better now
 
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Posted: #1543
adding

TB Rays ML -110

Hellickson gave up alot of runs in his last games , i think he will solid today
 
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Posted: #1544

Bigdaddy86  1-4-1  -364

 

SF Giants ML  +107

 

SF Giants TT Over 4 -125  

 

SF Giants ML 1rst 5 Innings +100

 

McCarthy has been getting rocked lately and giving up the long ball too which does not bold well for him at chase field. Lincecum has been pitching well the last couple of games and the Giants have been playing well as a team.

Like the Giants across the board!

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #1545
Musicmatt1  54-28-3  +1854$

 

Under 8.5  DET Tigers - MIN Twins  -110

 

OAK Athletics  ML  -125


MikeTizzy 37-28-2  +1096$


OAK Athletics -1.5  +170

DET Tigers -1.5  -115

SimonDog 47-33. +898$

NY Mets ML -132

COL Rockies +125 

CLE Indians +123

natalieportman9 44-41 +520$

TEX Rangers -1.5 +170.

LA Dodgers TT Over 4 +100.

BAL Orioles -1.5 +120

cuben2006 23-16-3 +445$

CIN Reds ML +115

CHI White Sox ML +110

TB Rays ML -110

aleiverson02 3-1 +195$

Over 8 OAK Athletics - LA Angels -130 

AshyLarryMP 42-43-4 -$616

Over 8.5 TOR BlueJays - BOS RedSox -115

Under 7.5 CLE Indians -  PHI Phillies -105

Under 4 First 5 innings CLE Indians - PHI Phillies -115


 
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Posted: #1546
greengiants 30-41 -1197$

Under 8.5 DET Tigers - MIN Twins -107

Under 7 STL Cardinals - CIN Reds +120

OAK Athletics -1 +128

Bigdaddy86  1-4-1  -364

 

SF Giants ML  +107

 

SF Giants TT Over 4 -125  

 

SF Giants ML 1rst 5 Innings +100

 
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Posted: #1547
Musicmatt1  54-28-3  +1854$

BAL Orioles ML -142

Adding this game because the Orioles have the better pitcher and line up.  I don't normally like to side with a heavy public favorite but I don't think I'm siding it the same way.  The first 2 games went Over, with totals set at 7.5, 7, and now it's 7.5 again. This seems odd to me given the fire power the Orioles have and the ERA of Harang. First difference in opinion. I believe this game is Under or close to it given the way the line is set. I can't make that play given the fire power. So if the game does go Under, it has the potential of being a closer game. That makes it harder to cover the -1.5. I don't feel comfortable making that play either. So here we are at the ML. Orioles definitely have the metrics to win this game, so I do feel very comfortable taking that. Second difference in opinion, I believe most of public is betting that spread.

In conclusion, I am siding with the winner of a public favorite, but I believe Vegas has their opportunity to cash. I believe after this game, we may want to have this RL discussion more in depth.

Best of Luck!


 
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Posted: #1548
And I hope they cover the spread and the over by themselves.  I always want to get the books, just think it's hard.

 
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Posted: #1549
BAL Orioles ML  -137

mismatch here, looking to exploit and sure win.
 
 
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Posted: #1550
Quote Originally Posted by Musicmatt1:

Musicmatt1  54-28-3  +1854$

BAL Orioles ML -142

Adding this game because the Orioles have the better pitcher and line up.  I don't normally like to side with a heavy public favorite but I don't think I'm siding it the same way.  The first 2 games went Over, with totals set at 7.5, 7, and now it's 7.5 again. This seems odd to me given the fire power the Orioles have and the ERA of Harang. First difference in opinion. I believe this game is Under or close to it given the way the line is set. I can't make that play given the fire power. So if the game does go Under, it has the potential of being a closer game. That makes it harder to cover the -1.5. I don't feel comfortable making that play either. So here we are at the ML. Orioles definitely have the metrics to win this game, so I do feel very comfortable taking that. Second difference in opinion, I believe most of public is betting that spread.

In conclusion, I am siding with the winner of a public favorite, but I believe Vegas has their opportunity to cash. I believe after this game, we may want to have this RL discussion more in depth.

Best of Luck!



there u go!! 
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