Posted Record: 12-4-2 (+11.6 units)
This is the time of year that regression toward the mean begins to kick in. Players, offenses, defenses, and pitching can all get off to slow or fast starts. It’s after the 1st few weeks that we begin to see most gravitate closer to projections. In my analysis, tonight’s game is a great example of this:
Luis Severino - Overachieving to date. I expect some regression to kick in soon. Don’t get me wrong - decent pitcher, but not nearly as good as his numbers indicate.
Logan Webb - Underachieving to date. His last start was more like what we expect to see. I anticipate we’ll see more of the same moving fwd and for his numbers to improve. In my opinion, he’ll be a Cy Young candidate once again.
Mets Bullpen - Overachieving to date. They’re not bad, but they’re not a top 5 bullpen and I expect regression to kick in soon.
Giants Bullpen - Underachieving to date. I have this pen in the top 10. They’ve started to turn the corner and I expect that trend to continue.
The Mets lineup as a team has seen Logan Webb for 78 ABs. They don’t see him well. They’re hitting; .178 avg/.259 OBP/.288 SLG,/.547 OPS
The Giants offense hasn’t seen much of Severino at all. But they do hit right handed pitching well. I think by the 2nd or 3rd time through the lineup, they will get to him. I don’t think his stuff is good enough for them not to.
Tonight I’m on the Giants (Full Game) at -130 for 3 units.
Cheers and BOL to all 
Heading to a meeting. Will be around later to address any questions or comments.
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