What's up people? I've missed the board, hope everyone is well. I don't plan on posting daily with a record anymore. Although, I thought it'd be nice to share from time-to-time when I see a good spot.
Tonight, I see a really nice spot for the Minnesota Twins. First off, this is a homecoming for Twins starting pitcher, Joe Ryan. He grew up in San Anselmo and played baseball at Sir Francis Drake High School. He'll have plenty of friends and family in the stands. He also happens to pitch really well on the road. In 9 road starts this season, he's pitching to a 2.78 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. On the whole season, his numbers are also impressive at a 3.29 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. In my opinion, he's one of the more underrated and consistent starters in baseball.
He'll be bringing those #'s into pitcher friendly, Oracle Park. He'll be facing a lineup that frankly, doesn't strike fear into anyone. On the season vs right handed pitching, the Giants are slashing a horrendous 236 AVG/306 OBP/379 SLG/685 OPS. Those #'s rank 22nd in the league. Be careful with Ramos is pretty much the game plan when facing this team. There is just no protection for him.
On the other hand, the Twins will get their first look at southpaw, Kyle Harrison. He's a 22 year old kid with potential. However, because of injuries and the fact that the Giants couldn't sign a decent free agent, he's being forced into a larger role than he's ready for. Unfortunately for him, he gets to face the best team in baseball vs left handed pitching. The Twins rank #1 against lefties, hitting to a 284 AVG/337 OBP/465 SLG/802 OPS.
Last but not least, the Twins bring the much better bullpen. They rank 9th in the league with a 3.56 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Giants on the other hand, rank 22nd with a 4.34 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
Minnesota is the far superior team. They're playing good baseball, winning 4 of their last 5 and have a +52 run differential on the season. The Giants are playing bad ball, losing 4 of their last 5 and have a -32 run differential on the season. Implied probability gives Minnesota a 61% of winning tonight's game and a 47% chance of covering the run line. However, given the starters, the Twins splits vs left handed pitching, SF vs right handed pitching, the bullpens, and current form - I have Minnesota favored by significantly more, making this a must play for me.
I'm on the Twins -145 for the majority of my bet with a decent sprinkle on the run line at +113.
Have a great Friday. I wish you all the best of luck! Cheers