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MITdropout's 2016 MLB Thread

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Posted: #26
Nicely done... Tailing you from tomorrow
 
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Posted: #27
solid start and excellent breakdown of goals and the benefits of flat betting. as someone else said the trolls will come and i hope they dont scare you away as this community is made great by folks like yourself who are willing to discuss. 
Welcome to the forum and BOL this year
 
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Posted: #28
Thanks guys. I wish I could start better, but we all know it's about the grind. Over a larger sample size there will be profit.


Results:

NYM ML 3.13 (+213) - LOSE $100

KC ML 2.21 (+121) - LOSE $100

STL ML 1.79 (-126) - WIN $179

HOU@BOS OVER 7.5 1.88 (-113) - WIN $188

PHI@ATL UNDER 7 1.99 (-101) - LOSE $100

Overall Profit: 179+188-500= -1.33 Units, -$133



Updated Record:

Starting Bankroll: $5,000 (50 units)

Days Bet: 4

Current Bankroll: $4,967

Overall Record / Profit: -0.33 Units, -$33




 
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Posted: #29
Just finished capping for Friday's games. Big card. Locked in lines on Pinnacle just now at these prices. 

 9 plays total. (4 totals, 3 money lines, and 2 run lines). 

CWS@NYY OVER 7 1.85 (-117)
DET@BAL OVER 8.5 2.06 (+106)
HOU@BOS OVER 9 2.02 (+102)
TOR@TEX OVER 10 1.94 (-106)

CWS ML 1.70 (-144)
WAS ML 1.65 (-154)
SF ML 1.70 (-144)

BOS RL -1.5 2.38 (+138)
BAL RL -1.5 2.46 (+146)

Flat bet 1 unit ($100) each. Cheers and good luck!
 
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Posted: #30
 
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Posted: #31
Good luck with your plays

Tailing your total plays

I'm a sucker for American League overs
 
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Posted: #32
The grind continues. Lost both run lines, but won all money lines and split the totals. It's interesting that the run line covered in the ML wins. Will have to take a closer look and see if there is a correlation to exploit. Overall 5-4 on the night. 

CWS@NYY OVER 7 1.85 (-117) - WIN $185
DET@BAL OVER 8.5 2.06 (+106) - LOSE $100
HOU@BOS OVER 9 2.02 (+102) - WIN $202
TOR@TEX OVER 10 1.94 (-106) - LOSE $100

CWS ML 1.70 (-144) WIN $170
WAS ML 1.65 (-154) WIN $165
SF ML 1.70 (-144) - WIN $170

BOS RL -1.5 2.38 (+138) - LOSE $100
BAL RL -1.5 2.46 (+146) - LOSE $100

Overall profit: 185+202+170+165+170=892-900= -0.08 Units, -$8


Updated Record:

Starting Bankroll: $5,000 (50 units)

Days Bet: 5

Current Bankroll: $4,959

Overall Record / Profit: -0.41 Units, -$41


So after 5 days of betting, we have a negative profit of 0.41 units, -$41. Not good, not bad, however one thing you will notice is the lack of swings. You grind out each day, minimize your losses and avoid the emotional swings with big bet losses and chasing, as well as parlays. There is nothing more tilting then losing the last leg of a parlay on a bad beat sending you into tilt mode. Stick to singles. Patience is the key. 

I will be back in an hour to post today's plays. Cheers.


 
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Posted: #33
Today's Games: 7 plays, 5 run lines, 2 totals

Flat bet 1 unit each ($100)

CWS@NYY OVER 8 1.90 (-110)
DET@BAL OVER 9.5 1.99 (-101)

CHC RL -1.5 1.76 (-130)
BOS RL -1.5 2.55 (+155)
TOR RL -1.5 2.36 (+136)
ARI RL -1.5 2.65 (+165) 
STL RL -1.5 2.64 (+164)

Good luck everyone.
 
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Posted: #34
I got roughed up Saturday. Hopefully will swing back in the black soon. Going to stay the course. 

CWS@NYY OVER 8 1.90 (-110) - LOSE $100
DET@BAL OVER 9.5 1.99 (-101) - WIN $199

CHC RL -1.5 1.76 (-130) - WIN $176
BOS RL -1.5 2.55 (+155) - LOSE $100
TOR RL -1.5 2.36 (+136) - LOSE $100
ARI RL -1.5 2.65 (+165) - LOSE $100
STL RL -1.5 2.64 (+164) - LOSE $100

199+176-700= -3.25 units, -$325

Updated Record:

Starting Bankroll: $5,000 (50 units)

Days Bet: 6

Current Bankroll: $4,634

Overall Record / Profit: -3.66 Units, -$366


 
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Posted: #35
Sunday May 15th 2016 Plays

CWS@NYY OVER 8.5 1.93
DET@BAL OVER 9 2.03 (+103)
HOU@BOS OVER 11 2.01 (+101)
TOR@TEX OVER 9 (1.88)

ARI RL -1.5 2.56 (+156)
BAL RL -1.5 2.17 (+117)
TOR RL -1.5 1.96 (-104)

Good luck everyone. 1 unit each.
 
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Posted: #36
Great rebound day. Hopefully ARI can knock a few in. Will have a play for tonights game in under an hour. 
 
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Posted: #37
Sunday Night Baseball: STL@LAD

OVER 7.5 1.86 (-116) - 1 unit

Good luck. 
 
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Posted: #38
The day started great, then the Jays bullpen gave up 4 late, Arizona folded, and lost by 1 run on Sunday night baseball. That's ok, don't let the swings and variance get to you. Steady the ship and maintain course. 

CWS@NYY OVER 8.5 1.93 - WIN $193
DET@BAL OVER 9 2.03 (+103) - WIN $203
HOU@BOS OVER 11 2.01 (+101) - WIN $201
TOR@TEX OVER 9 (1.88) - WIN $188

ARI RL -1.5 2.56 (+156) - LOSE 
BAL RL -1.5 2.17 (+117) - LOSE
TOR RL -1.5 1.96 (-104) - LOSE
STL@LAD OVER 7.5 1.86 (-116) - LOSE

Profit: 193+203+201+188-800= -$15, -0.15 Units


Updated Record:

Starting Bankroll: $5,000 (50 units)

Days Bet: 7

Current Bankroll: $4,619

Overall Record / Profit: -3.81 Units, -$381


Weekly Report: After 7 days of betting, there was a loss of -3.81 units, -$381. Reviewing the data and games, a lot of the losses were very close. I will tweak the data and correct any errors. It's always important to review your capping methods as the game changes. Even when you win, try and find things that can have an impact on your model. 
 
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Posted: #39
Monday May 16th 2016 Plays: 1 run line, 2 money lines, 2 totals


MIA ML 1.75 (-133)
BOS ML 1.83 (-120)
DET RL 2.37 (+137)

TB@TOR OVER 8 1.81 (-123)
MIN@DET OVER 8.5 1.99 (-101)

Flat bet 1 unit each. I factored the Bautista may be suspended (would be silly, but MLB can do strange things), but he will still play as I am 99% sure he will play under protest. His bat is a factor in the OVER play. Cheers and good luck everyone.
 
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Posted: #40
Good start. Hopefully at the end of the evening be back in the black.
 
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Posted: #41
Sweep today. 4-0. It's about time, been a not so great week. Tweaks helped. Hopefully continue the success tomorrow and onward.

MIA ML 1.75 (-133) - WIN $175
BOS ML 1.83 (-120) - Postponed
DET RL 2.37 (+137) - WIN $237

TB@TOR OVER 8 1.81 (-123) - WIN $181
MIN@DET OVER 8.5 1.99 (-101) - WIN $199

175+237+181+199 = 792-400= +$392, +3.92 Units

Back in the black. 


Updated Record:

Starting Bankroll: $5,000 (50 units)

Days Bet: 8

Current Bankroll: $5,011

Overall Record / Profit: +0.11 Units, +$11

 
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Posted: #42
Nice night! Bol tommorow
 
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Posted: #43
Thanks kvngr. Go Jets.


Baseball card: Tuesday May 17th, 2016: 7 plays, 3 totals, 1 ml, 3 run line


SEA@BAL OVER 8.5 1.73 (-136)
TB@TOR OVER 8 1.90 (-110)
MIN@DET OVER 9 1.74 (-134)

BOS ML 1.80 (-125)

CLE RL -1.5 2.06 (+106)
CHC RL -1.5 1.94 (-106)
SF RL -1.5 2.04 (+104)

Flat bet 1 unit ($100).

Good luck everyone. 
 
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Posted: #44
Note: The line has moved from 8.5 to 9 on the SEA@BAL game. The picks I posted were the lines at that time when I locked my bets into Pinnacle. If you get a worse line than I posted, I would not play it if it crosses a key number.

For example, I would still bet SEA@BAL Over 9 at -110, but I would not bet it if it moved to 9.5. A factor in betting over 8.5/9 is a 4-3 game being able to be tied up at 4-4, thus forcing a mandatory run for the win by either team, or at least a push and not a loss. Same applies to a total of 7 and 7.5. A 3-2 game can force a push with just a run at a total of 7. 

Always shop around for that half a run. It makes a big difference. If you are very confident a line will get worse, try to bet it as soon as possible to avoid the line moving out of favour for you. There is a risk of course it could offer a better price, but if you are a solid handicapper, and on the winning side, obviously the line movement will be more in your favour when you get your bets in early. 

Every edge, no matter how small counts.

 
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Posted: #45
Decent night so far. Really surprised at Cubbies. I guess they went out last night and got hammered on Milwaukee beer. Will update in a few hours.
 
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Posted: #46
Another winning day. +1.73 units. Lets keep them rolling in.

SEA@BAL OVER 8.5 1.73 (-136) - WIN $173
TB@TOR OVER 8 1.90 (-110) - WIN $190
MIN@DET OVER 9 1.74 (-134) - Push

BOS ML 1.80 (-125) - LOSE

CLE RL -1.5 2.06 (+106) - WIN $206
CHC RL -1.5 1.94 (-106) - LOSE
SF RL -1.5 2.04 (+104) - WIN $204

173+190+206+204 - 600 = $173, +1.73 Units

Updated Record:

Starting Bankroll: $5,000 (50 units)

Days Bet: 9

Current Bankroll: $5,184

Overall Record / Profit: +1.84 Units, +$184

Will post today's picks in 30 min
 
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Posted: #47
As you can see, even though last week was a bad week, all it took was a couple of days to get out of the red, and start making a profit. There will be lots of swings in a baseball season and you just need to ride them out. If you have a solid capping system, and can manage your money and flat bet, you will make profit.

Today's Plays:

MIN@DET OVER 8.5 1.85
SEA@BAL OVER 8 1.92
TOR@TB OVER 8.5 1.83

CWS ML 2.02 (+102)
COL 1st 5 innings ML PK 2.46 (+146) 

Just 5 plays today. 3 totals, 1 ML, and 1 first 5 innings ML. Note if COL and STL are tied after 5, it's a push at my book which is why I take this bet. 

Cheers and good luck


 
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Posted: #48
Good luck today MIT.Good looking card all are on the right side of some numbers I use.
 
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Posted: #49
Thanks kvngr. Good luck as well. 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Always good to win the first one. 
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