HOW THE MLB BETTING MARKETS DEAL WITH INTERLEAGUE PLAY
You may not have realized it, but INTERLEAGUE play returns to Major League Baseball this weekend.
Among the traditional rivalry series on tap:
LA Angels at LA Dodgers
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Tampa Bay at Florida
Texas at Houston
Kansas City at St. Louis
Baltimore at Washington
Among some other highlights:
- NY Mets at Boston Red Sox (a rematch from the '86 World Series and a meeting of marquee franchises)
- Philadelphia at NY Yankees (last season's World Series champs visiting the most storied franchise in the game)
- Toronto at Atlanta (two projected up-and-comers in 2009, one of whom has been playing GREAT)
I can tell you that Nevada sportsbooks are hoping that IL play brings in some new baseball action. I already reported that baseball betting was way down from last year...and last year wasn't that big to begin with. We recently lost the ability to post odds for the minor league team in Reno as well. That was drawing some action just because people liked betting on a game they were going to go out and watch in person.
If you live in Nevada, PLEASE visit a sportsbook this weekend and bet some Interleague baseball! We'll have the big games on TV screens all over the place. You'll have a great time.
If you're trying to handicap these games, let me explain something very interesting to you about what's been happening in the betting markets in recent years.
Some key facts:
- The American League has been MUCH better than the National League the last three years. The difference is so big it's impossible to miss. The results suggest that the NL is just a glorified minor league right now. Consider it"Quadruple A"if you will. Only two NL teams have winning IL records the last three years, and one of those was just barely (the Mets are 23-22, Colorado is 28-20). Only two AL teams have losing records in IL play. Imagine a college football series where SEC teams played everyone in the Sun Belt. That's basically what's happened here. And, it's not much of an exaggeration. The edge has been that big.
- The market has done virtually NOTHING about this!
- The public still thinks the leagues are about even, and is just as likely to be an NL team as an AL team in these games.
- Many old school sharps have a longterm bias that the NL is the better league, and just won't shake it no matter what the records say. They point to World Series play of late that's seen the NL win two of the last three. That's fine. It's a different story in the regular season IL games though.
- Many oddsmakers I talk to don't think there's much of a difference either. In fact, the"consulting"service that publicizes its rankings was top heavy in the NL this year in terms of top 10 teams. That would be like ranking a lot of Sun Belt teams over SEC teams in college football. Again, only two of 16 NL teams have winning records in IL play the last three years...only two of 14 AL teams have losing records.
So...if the oddsmakers still rank the teams as about even (or even with the NL better at the top!), and the sharps are biased towards the NL, and the public doesn't know any better, how are the market prices going to reflect the reality of 2009 IL baseball?
The answer is...the markets probably won't. Unless the NL really has made a big leap forward this year to become more competitive. That's certainly possible. Things are always changing in baseball. Some NL teams have invested in AL talent and gotten better immediately. There are some injuries to key AL players. That can serve as an equalizer. You just never know in baseball.
I'll say this. I think you have to start with an assumption that the AL is still the better league, then let the results move you from there as they come in. That's what I did last year, and the AL established then maintained its superiority throughout the summer.
I'll be watching Friday and Saturday results very closely to get a read. What's great about all the matchups is that so many could have"predictive"value because the teams go in perceived as relatively even.
- Nobody may care much about Baltimore/Washington...but the results when two bad teams play says as much about league strength as the results when good teams play.
- If the Mets go to Boston and beat the Red Sox, that could be an early signal that things are evening up again. Same thing if Philadelphia has success in the Bronx against the Yankees.
- If Toronto beats up on Atlanta on the road, Tampa Bay beats up on Florida on the road, Texas beats up on Houston on the road, and/or Cleveland beats up on Cincinnati on the road...then we're looking some good evidence that the status quo is still in play.
Start with an assumption that the AL is still better, then monitor results very closely Friday so you can win the rest of the weekend. Then, when IL play resumes again in a couple of weeks, stay on top of things so you can build that profit pyramid. It's amazing how much money AL backers won the last three years when the markets were so slow to respond to reality.
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