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MLB 4/18/17

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Please take no offense, you are welcome to do as you see fit. Your money, your choice. But; my thread is about the last place on Covers you want to post trends. Trends can be highly deceiving without in depth research. For instance; Dodgers 17-6 on Tuesday. So what? What if they are 6-6 last 12? Wouldn't that kind of negate the 17-6? Was Freeland the opponent on those 23 Tuesday's? Was ANY lefty the opponent on those 23 Tuesday's? There is just too much variance in the situational aspect. I do not use trends and don't care what they are unless they are very recent and applicable to today's matchup. The Dodgers are struggling with lefties thus far this season and that does count. BOL 


look up stts of dodgers vs lefties.... ull disregard the tuesday trends
 
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Posted: #27
Good luck Key!
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Nice NBA and MLB contributions yesterday from Rolexsports and backdoor_cover. 

4/18/17

17-14-1, RoR +26.3% (vs 11/10 odds 66.2%)

Brewers, FG, +158, Nelson / Anderson

Rockies, FG, +152, Freeland / Ryu

For the sake of the football-basketball mentality that places much of its faith in W/L percentage I have added the math of what would be required to turn a 26.3% RoR versus 11/10 odds in foots or buckets.

The substantial difference is created by the mathematical fact a wager at 11/10 odds returns 90.91% as profit of the amount wagered if you win. The 17-14 (54.8%) I have posted to date has returned a profit of 23.6% of all amounts wagered and a +123.3 average line versus 90.91 is why it would require a 66.2% win rate to win 23.6% at 11/10.

Literally thousands (millions?) of bettors are stuck in the win % mind-set and will NEVER study the true mathematics of sports gambling, but any mathematician can easily assure you that what I am posting here is totally correct.

It does no good to argue the point with the close-minded, but some of you are studying these things and that is why I point them out. Comparing football-basketball 11/10 odds versus money line odds in baseball is like comparing them to the odds in craps, blackjack or roulette. We are talking different worlds.

Football, basketball and baseball are all team sports, but the wagering on them is radically different and anyone venturing into baseball must ask himself, first and foremost, “Do I want to win games, or money?”

The real and true basis of successful baseball wagering is true probability versus quoted odds.

Today’s choices are mathematically simple. I do not believe the Cubs and Dodgers, respectively, hold 62.7% and 61.8% chances of winning their respective games. If I am correct about either one of those games my win % does not go up, but my bankroll does.

BOL 


It's amazing how many guys track mlb win/loss records here on covers without tracking juice.  Guys taking teams for -150 to -220 happy being a game or 2 over .500.  Nice work and great picks thus far
 
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Posted: #29
Go Rox-

 I am hopeful, again, this year for my hometown squad. If Cargo and Story hit like they are expected to and the bullpen holds up, this team could really be something......


I know, I know, a lot of if's there  
 
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Posted: #30
I hate the Brewers but that said, I hate the Yankees too and it is not stopping them from winning........
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

I hate the Brewers but that said, I hate the Yankees too and it is not stopping them from winning........
Hey buddy; no need to hate the Brewers or Yankees until October, they aren't even in your division!
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #32
Ryu reminds me of CC Sabathai - fat and lazy.
But he's due for a win.

Another square pick by KeyElement.

Dodgers take the big W tonight.
 
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Posted: #33
I wish I could take the Red Sox at plus money but Stroman has been the one bright spot for the Blue Jays.

Instead I will do a parlay today:
Detroit F5
A's/Rangers Under 3.5 F5


 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

Ryu reminds me of CC Sabathai - fat and lazy.
But he's due for a win.

Another square pick by KeyElement.

Dodgers take the big W tonight.

and if the Dodgers lose you get lost for good from this page? 

come on man no need to bash a guys pick.  
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by backdooor_cover:

I wish I could take the Red Sox at plus money but Stroman has been the one bright spot for the Blue Jays.

Instead I will do a parlay today:
Detroit F5
A's/Rangers Under 3.5 F5


Another angle on that BoSox game is that as bad as the Jays have been they are 1-1 versus lefties. That was Snell (W) and Miley (L),  so Johnson is not an automatic loss. 

Sort of like your parlay but on that total 3.5 is exactly where I land.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #36
My bad Key. Just saw my shout out. All good man. Tonight we have a larger slate. Bulls + 8 ( bought the half ) Clip show -8 ( bought the half) and Raps - 7 also bought the half. All for the same amount . 2/3 is all I'm looking for. Profit. A sweep would be awesome ... Good luck to us...
 
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Posted: #37
Tailing, BOL Key
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Another angle on that BoSox game is that as bad as the Jays have been they are 1-1 versus lefties. That was Snell (W) and Miley (L),  so Johnson is not an automatic loss. 

Sort of like your parlay but on that total 3.5 is exactly where I land.

I am liking the under cause 2 solid pitches going up against really bad offenses at the moment.  They could wake up later but i don't see tonight that happening.

NBA I am taking Raptors under 194. And I might take the Jazz later

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Rolexsports:

My bad Key. Just saw my shout out. All good man. Tonight we have a larger slate. Bulls + 8 ( bought the half ) Clip show -8 ( bought the half) and Raps - 7 also bought the half. All for the same amount . 2/3 is all I'm looking for. Profit. A sweep would be awesome ... Good luck to us...
OK, I'm on board again. 2/3 would be fine. Keep it up.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #40
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by backdooor_cover:

I wish I could take the Red Sox at plus money but Stroman has been the one bright spot for the Blue Jays.

Instead I will do a parlay today:
Detroit F5
A's/Rangers Under 3.5 F5



Guys usually have a tougher time the game after throwing a complete game. And man check out how well the BoSox smash ground ball pitchers...GL
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:


Guys usually have a tougher time the game after throwing a complete game. And man check out how well the BoSox smash ground ball pitchers...GL
I dunno sac. Stroman only threw 100 pitches versus Milwaukee and that fatigue factor is usually tied to a guy that went 110+ to get his complete game. May not matter in this case. 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #43

"The real and true basis of successful baseball wagering is true probability versus quoted odds.

Today’s choices are mathematically simple. I do not believe the Cubs and Dodgers, respectively, hold 62.7% and 61.8% chances of winning their respective games. If I am correct about either one of those games my win % does not go up, but my bankroll does."

How does anyone "know" what "true" odds are though?

 
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Posted: #44
GL Key. 
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

"The real and true basis of successful baseball wagering is true probability versus quoted odds.

Today’s choices are mathematically simple. I do not believe the Cubs and Dodgers, respectively, hold 62.7% and 61.8% chances of winning their respective games. If I am correct about either one of those games my win % does not go up, but my bankroll does."

How does anyone "know" what "true" odds are though?

Tracking, correctly weighting the important stats and computing the likelihood or "probability" of a team playing well or not under today's situational conditions. Believe it or not that is what you are doing every time you say "I like this" or "I like that". Liking means your mental computer is making a probability choice. But, without a computation you have no mathematical reason to know why if you should "like" something or if it is worth the required investment.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Rolexsports:

My bad Key. Just saw my shout out. All good man. Tonight we have a larger slate. Bulls + 8 ( bought the half ) Clip show -8 ( bought the half) and Raps - 7 also bought the half. All for the same amount . 2/3 is all I'm looking for. Profit. A sweep would be awesome ... Good luck to us...

Boston doesn't lose tonight.  No way no how and I no think 8 points will be enough for the bulls.  Blood bath tonight in Boston!!
 
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Posted: #47
So far so good on Brewers!
 
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Posted: #48
GL tonight Keys.
 
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Posted: #49
I Love this song     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UfOZdZLuuw
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by backdooor_cover:


Boston doesn't lose tonight.  No way no how and I no think 8 points will be enough for the bulls.  Blood bath tonight in Boston!!
Uh-Oh, looks like a head to head challenge boys! 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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