MLB 5/01/18

5/01/18

Opening Bankroll $10,000, P/L $ -2,221.00 / 28-36-3, ROI =, -11.66%

Play 3% of bankroll, $233 FLAT, TODAY.

The bankroll play amount will now be adjusted Daily, I must let the snowball effect have its impact, depending on prior days results. Discipline is a key factor in sports wagering.

Plays today are First 5 Innings

Tigers +140, (Archer/Boyd)

If the sabrmatricians want to tell us Archer “has” to revert to prior form let them back it with their money. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn’t, but his current performance level doesn’t show any reason to think it will be today. The current evidence is that he is slipping fast and has no business being a big road favorite.

Marlins -107, (Eflin/Garcia)

If you haven’t studied this Garcia kid you better pour another cup of coffee and wake up. Eflin was unimpressive last year and may or may not make progress this year, but I have no reason to fear him or the Phillie offense versus Garcia.

Royals-Red Sox Under 4.5, -125, (Hamels/Bauer)

Last night’s game got out of hand quickly with 13 runs the first 5 innings. Hammel/Rodriguez came in with a combined pitcher versus offenses rating of 37.2, but Junis/Sale comes at them with a 64.6, a huge difference. Umpire and weather should be acceptable for our purposes.   

BOL

There will be no more Streak Survivor or Contest action until I get this train back on the tracks.

Wrong pitchers for Royals/Red Sox game Key. BOL today 

It'd be Sale and Junis.  

Good luck today.  On a couple of the same.  Completely agree with Archer

With you on the Marlins. Agree with your assessment of Garcia. 

Royals-Red Sox Under 4.5, -125, (JunisSale) Just editing, obviously the write up had it right.

Hard to tgo against the Rays these daze...

BOL

Goodluck today Key

OK, Rays have won 9 of last 10. They have also won 1 of last 2. When streaks end, they end. It is over. The Red Sox were 17-2, they are 4-5 since then. What goes around comes around and the Rays are more likely to be a 50-50 team for a while or going forward. If they continued to go 9-1 for the balance of the season they would finish 135-27. Should their streak be considered a big factor, or more likely a short term happenstance? I love trend followers. The Yankees brought a 9 game streak into Houston last night and half this board thought there was no way they should be a big dog. Sonny Gray versus Charlie Morton? That settled it for the books and big money players both, or the Astros line would have come crashing down. The Rays are 4-2 when Archer takes the ball, but he is 1-5 for quality starts because they had to score 5 or more runs in every one of the 4 wins. This guy is a -150 road favorite? jmho