MLB 5/04/18

5/04/18

Opening Bankroll $10,000, P/L $ -978.74 / 34-38-4, ROI = -4.66%

Play 3% of bankroll, $271 FLAT, TODAY.

The bankroll play amount will now be adjusted Daily, I must let the snowball effect have its impact, depending on prior days results. Discipline is a key factor in sports wagering.

Note: Innings indicated on each play

F5-Run Line Yankees -.5, -140 (Tomin/Sabathia)

There is one thing about this play I absolutely hate, and that is that I do not normally like to lay both runs and odds in a baseball game. I much prefer the +$ payback for laying a half or one-and-a-half, but very few rules are carved in stone and those came down from Mt. Sinai. The Tribe must start one of the worst starters of the season today (1-3 qs, 0-4 h2h) versus a fully rejuvenated and rehabbed Sabathia (3-2, 4-1), and do it after a long and active 20 inning day versus the Jays. Poor starter, tired players, spent bullpen and travel are not a good combination. Francona may right this one off and try to prepare for tomorrow. I wouldn’t blame him a bit. My computed 5 inning money line on this game is -348, so I think we have room to lay a half run. Don’t ask about full game. I never, never, never lay -1.5 on a home team. Who wants to sit there and pray for your opponent to score in the top of the ninth because you are only up 1? So, you get lucky and they do score one. Now you must get a man on and win with a 2 (or more) run dinger to clear the margin. Your team does not even play that way; they play for the one run to win, and end, the game. Very shaky proposition and that is why the books will pay a good price on it.   

F5- Pirates-Brewers Under 4.5, -125, (Kingham/Guerra)

Kingham looked impressive his first outing, and this will be the Brewers first experience with him. But, he is 26 years old with 7 years of minor league experience and has to be considered mature in a baseball sense. It can be trouble to face a guy like that and he may get through the Brewers order twice with no problems. Junior Guerra is blooming nicely but is scarcely noticed by most bettors, especially those that ignore pitching. The Brewers offense is very average and the Pirates have disappeared their last 4 games versus righty. The early part of this game should be a pitcher’s duel.

FG- Cardinals -105, (Quintana/Mikolas)

The Cubs are playing OK ball, but nothing impressive or intimidating and Quintana is off to a slow, shaky start, with only 2 quality starts in his first 5, both versus the Brewers, away then home; but the Brewers are not nearly the lefty hitting club the Cardinals are. I suppose some trend follower will tell us Quintana is 4-0 versus the Cardinals, 2 with the White Sox and 2 with the Cubs, but that was then, and this is now. Trends followed blindly can be very deceiving and disappointing.

BOL 

Good play on the Yanks. Tomlin hasn't shown much and the Yanks should tee off on him early. 

Goodluck Key 

Play them all, play none of them, or pick and choose. Your money, your choice.

There is a darn good reason I flat play everything. 

BOL

Good Luck buddy-

I will check in more now that I know you are posting again