MLB 5/07/18

5/07/18

Opening Bankroll $10,000, P/L $ -35.47 / 40-41-4, ROI = -.0015%

Play 3% of bankroll, $299 FLAT, TODAY.

The bankroll play amount will now be adjusted Daily, I must let the snowball effect have its impact, depending on prior days results. Discipline is a key factor in sports wagering.

Note: Innings indicated on each play

F5- Marlins +210 (Garcia/Hendricks)

At this point in time Hendricks is the ace of the staff and deservedly so. Tough guy to face, but the rest of his team is wallowing in the mud and finding ways to lose. The kid, Garcia, has hit the majors with some really nasty stuff and the floundering Cubs have not seen it yet. A 1.09 era, .085 whip and 151:1 GB/FB ratio put him in fine position for an upset. The Cubs faithful of course are throwing a lot of money on them, but can they really justify -240, which takes a 70.6% win probability just to break even? Do Hendricks and the Cubs win this exact matchup 3 out of 4 times just so you can show a couple of dollars profit?

F5- A’s +127 (Keuchel/Anderson)

The Astros may win the division, league and World Series yet, but they aren’t playing anything like a championship caliber team at the moment, nor does Dallas Keuchel look anything like “Cy Young” Keuchel. Now couple that with the Astros poor performance versus lefty, only 4 quality offensive performances in 11 tries, and you have the recipe for an upset.

BOL

There will be no more Streak Survivor or Contest action until I get this train back on the tracks.

The tally is in. Sunday, 5/6/2018 may have been one of the worst days in history for offensive baseball.   

22 of 30 starting pitchers scored quality starts (by my formula). It would be 23-7 if Stripling had gone one more inning.

All 30 offenses averaged 1.33 total runs for the first 5 innings, and 10 were shut out, including the Yankees, Diamondbacks and Dodgers, thee of the most respected offenses in MLB.  

“Swing for the fences” baseball is killing more teams than it is helping, and that is because the talent pool necessary to play that way is not available, and very expensive, and very few clubs have the deep pockets to “buy” a lineup that can produce via that method.

If the Yankees do it this year I would venture to guess it will more of a one-year happenstance than a long-term projection of the future. It seems like every time a new “dynasty” is born it turns out to be a one-year wonder, and not a dynasty at all. Styles of play vary from decade to decade, but the nature of the beast remains the same. Pitching is the core source of baseball success and that is not going to change.   

Agreed.  When you think of World Series and CS great moments, it's more often about pitchers  (with all respect to Jetes, Maz, Fisk and Gibby) who dominated a post-season.  Until they put the mound behind 2nd base, it's simple physics.

Almost back to plus $. Keep up the good work Key 

BOL

Good luck Key!