MLB 5/19 - Anti-Mythology Day

It's a known fact that before the internet and probably even today that information from a trainer or a towel boy who overhears something in the locker room can be worth a king's ransom to the gambling world. Such as overhearing that Clemons went out last night in Texas with his childhood buddies and tied one on. He starts tonight and because of this information Vegas hangs a -140 when the line should be -185. Fishy line Clemens lets up a bunch of runs and the Rangers eek out a 5-3 win.

So when an old school-er like Key sees a fishy line the thought is all the math and great angles one has might not be worth sine-ola when there is something the oddsmakers know that don't make it into your stats.

Fishy lines working out is something like 70%, even though it was not the case yesterday with SF, it's definitely worth the serious consideration of throwing out that game and not tempting the powerful oddmakers behind the curtain who pay for such information.

@BABYFACE024

"How often do you avoid a good #s play cause it seems way off?"

I honestly believe that is the first time ever. I have faith in the numbers I generate, but more money players should have been on board. It was hard to believe there wasn't a ton of early big$ action on the Giants. I had faith in my numbers, but a lot of other big$ players should have agreed with me. I told sac, in my early P.M. to him, that I made the Giants -257, F5 innings. All I can take away from that game is that Castillo is STILL far too highly rated and DeSclafani is STILL far too highly underrated.

@barneybeans

 There you go again, calling me an old-timer. Why can't I convince you guys that I am 75 years YOUNG? 

Just an FYI on JEGs Giants, the sweep angle doesn't apply today, this is the 3rd game of a 4 games set, otherwise BOL with the plays

@KeyElement

 You guys are a lot of fun, but a guy that is 75 years young needs his nap.

Cya later

Its not embarrassing to hit .180 and strike out twice a game if you hit a homer one of the two hits you get a week

Anyone familiar with the Giants lineup "construction" ?

No Bell, Yastrzemski batting #5, Slater back in leadoff ... does that make them better or worse today?

Hold on a second...how is Kershaw -303!?

And -315 F5 

C'mon Key, explain this one to us. 

Excuse me, "young timer" = Key Element

Sac probably cause of Kellys terrible #s but Im still taking a swing at Arz. . Like a lot of other "swings" vs the dodgers dont even need to be 50/50

This Gausman v Miley showdown also highlights how many pitchers start having success after leaving Baltimore

Leaning Giants ML and  over 8.5 what you think ?

@BABYFACE024

 It's also part of the east coast-west coast thing I explained to fubah2 yesterday 

@undermysac

 Yeah he's overpriced but should win any way. -238 would be right. 

Long story short - I won't play Kershaw because he is overpriced versus probability, and..

I won't play Kelly because he probably cannot win

There is value in saying NO PLAY 

@Shauwig

 I could compute that but it isn't worth the effort. Other than pitching, other players change a teams overall proficiency by very little.

Pitching constitutes 60% of a teams probability. Using 8.5 as an average number of "other" players, that makes each worth 4.71% of his teams probability or 2.35% toward the outcome of the game. If you remove a star worth maybe 6% and replace him with a sub worth say 4% it does not make a great deal of difference to that teams overall offensive probability and even less to the total game. Offense/defense are team endeavors, but pitching is an individual effort. It is nice to have both, but pitching is absolutely necessary. Evaluate box scores. The team that got superior pitching is almost always the winner. You can't always be right about who is the superior pitcher, and every day some guys have better/worse days than they should, but if you don't start a handicap with pitching you have nothing going for you.

"Momentum in baseball is as good as who is taking the ball to the hill for you tomorrow." Earl Weaver  

@OneWayOut

 I could take 10 coachable high school players with talent and put 4 or 5 of them in the bigs in 5 years. The nerds tell upper management what their latest grand scheme is and get away with it. Managers and coaches want to keep their jobs so they go along to get along. They know better, but are not allowed to teach solid, fundamental hitting. Maybe when a few of the old boys retire they will blow the whistle. I am surprised Ned Yost hasn't. He got so sick of "look at a couple, never swing at the first pitch" a few years ago he told the Royals that the first time through the order "EVERYBODY SWINGS AT THE FIRST PITCH, no exceptions." The Royals scored like 5 runs, batted through the order, and had the opponents starter shell-shocked.  

Would this be a good time to remind you that you all ready pushed a 1st 5 bet this year when the pitcher you backed threw a no hitter?

I had a high-school coach who taught us how to hit as if there was 2 strikes in the count at all times. 

@undermysac

  OK, good pitching can save your azz when the boys can't hit the other guy, and he too will have his good days 

Should get bonus $ for a no hitter 1st 5!

the strike zone is ridiculous in this game!!!

Gausman pitched around Akiyama nicely to set up that double play. Text book.

@BABYFACE024

 They both benefitted, that's OK. Unfair to hitters but equal for both teams, game-wise.