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MLB 8/27/16

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Posted: #1

MLB – 2016

170-152-3, $ +3,804.75, +5.85% RoR

8/26, 4-0, +865.01

8/27, Flat $240.00

Rockies +161, De La Rosa/Cole

I will concede I have only a 49.2/50.8 percent win probability here but +157 is a ridiculous line, worth playing for.

Twins +191, Santana/Stroman

Santana has flown under the radar all year by being with a lousy team but he can go head to head with Stroman any day of the week and for all the hype you hear, the BJ’s don’t hit righty any better or more productively than the Twins do.

Royals +151, Duffy/Price

Different venue, same scenario.

Reds, RL, -1.5, +148, DeSclafani/Godley

Perfect storm: DeSclafani over Godley alone is worth 80 cents of line value and the Reds currently hit righty better than the D-bax.

These four games all have a ton of HFA and bettor perception of “the better team” built in that just does not exist.

BOL  

Crashdavis “fade the Braves” is now 23-15, -175 (Giants closed -220)

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #2
Like the Reds today also. DeSclafani has been a pleasant surprise for the Reds once he came off the DL.
 
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Posted: #3
Nice run you're on. Thanks
 
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Posted: #5
I would say the run line for the rox is a safer choice, I do see them getting on board in the top 1 inning. De la Rosas road record does not sit well with me neither.
 
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Posted: #6
Damn I like all those plays....
 
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Posted: #7
Hot day in DC....Shoot out ...
 
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Posted: #8
Didn't have time to check the games myself yesterday, so I just followed your picks. Great day yesterday 4-0!!! 
 
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Posted: #9
God bless your Rockies coin flip. And thanks for the honesty on the win probability %.

Hopefully the "impatient" followers take the time to read the small description underneath the play in bold...and understand that it's a bargain play.

Now that you and B.O.B. are on the Reds, do I make a play on em and Gooch you guys, or sit back and take a couple more days off? Pretty bad tailspin I'm in.

BOL
 
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Posted: #10
great night man

wow great value on DUFF, also do you think the twins will hit over 4 runs? 
 
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Posted: #11
Rockies F5 Key?
I love JDLR and especially in the heat, if it is a hot day in DC that will work for him. 
Logan, Estevez, McGee and even Qualls have been less than stellar in the pen for the Rox. Ottavino is simply money at the tail end but JDLR will only get 5-6 innings best case scenario against a veteran patient squad like the Nationals. From there, I think you lose some advantage to the Nationals pen. Just my two cents. Great day yesterday my friend and great run.
 
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Posted: #12
If u parlay your 4 picks, 5 dollars win 220
 
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Posted: #13
BOL with the rocks Key. They're in some sort of funk right now and really need the first win of their road trip 
 
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Posted: #14
What do you think of the Royals at 100-1 to win the World Series?
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by huskerfan5b:

What do you think of the Royals at 100-1 to win the World Series?


I'm in college and banking on this to pay off student loans. GL
Don’t let the last play affect the next play
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

God bless your Rockies coin flip. And thanks for the honesty on the win probability %.

Hopefully the "impatient" followers take the time to read the small description underneath the play in bold...and understand that it's a bargain play.

Now that you and B.O.B. are on the Reds, do I make a play on em and Gooch you guys, or sit back and take a couple more days off? Pretty bad tailspin I'm in.

BOL
I can't speak for BoB but personally I am not superstitious. Do whatever you want to do.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Ken11:

great night man

wow great value on DUFF, also do you think the twins will hit over 4 runs? 
Maybe, but I wouldn't play it. If both starters are in form this is a pitcher's duel.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

Rockies F5 Key?
I love JDLR and especially in the heat, if it is a hot day in DC that will work for him. 
Logan, Estevez, McGee and even Qualls have been less than stellar in the pen for the Rox. Ottavino is simply money at the tail end but JDLR will only get 5-6 innings best case scenario against a veteran patient squad like the Nationals. From there, I think you lose some advantage to the Nationals pen. Just my two cents. Great day yesterday my friend and great run.
Whatever you like. BOL 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by dlama:

If u parlay your 4 picks, 5 dollars win 220
And if just 1 loses you are out $5.00. Hitting 4 out of 4 is one thing, hitting 4 out of 4 dogs is another. If I go 2-2 with any of them I make a profit.

Your money, your choice 

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by KC_4_LIFE:


I'm in college and banking on this to pay off student loans. GL




I'm positive both Duffy and Price will show up for this game.

But which Boston offense shows up?

~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by huskerfan5b:

What do you think of the Royals at 100-1 to win the World Series?
$10 for a Grand, sure, why not? You'll never miss the $10 but don't try to get greedy and get rich. It's a long shot, treat it like one. 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by KC_4_LIFE:



I'm in college and banking on this to pay off student loans. GL
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:





I'm positive both Duffy and Price will show up for this game.

But which Boston offense shows up?

What makes you think the Boston offense is the important one? Probability and productivity numbers (mine) are actually pretty close on this one. I think it is a Duffy/Price battle myself. 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

What makes you think the Boston offense is the important one? Probability and productivity numbers (mine) are actually pretty close on this one. I think it is a Duffy/Price battle myself. 


Strictly watching on the sidelines here Key.

I have no dog in this fight.

GL.
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:



Strictly watching on the sidelines here Key.

I have no dog in this fight.

GL.
Just meant to say that either Duffy or Price will excel or fail and that will make the other offense look good, but it is really up to Duffy and/or Price. 


Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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