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MLB Breakdown Wed 06/29

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Prospect
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Posted: #76

hi Bodio

Are you posting your picks today?

and are you starting another thread?  Thanks for all your work  Pete

 
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Posted: #77
Thanks Bodio..... gl.....
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by Mikie2Times:

 
@Barbosa- That other web site does not suck. It's filled with a lot of genuine, good people. Certainly does not have the statistical information covers does, but it also doesn't have the immaturity in the forums. The two sites really aren't comparable because covers and _____ do not try and accomplish the same things.

Best of luck on everybody today.    
Mike

I apologize in advance to Bo, for writing this response in his thread:

Mike-that sites deletes peoples comments, they are like Nazi's. They control the information the public see's.  They are communist bastards.  How is that "genuine"? Why don't you Google the word genuine and see what the real meaning is, not your foggy communist version of the word.  


 
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Posted: #79

Bodio, LVL, Hi Guys,

What's all the mystery here about "the other site" and Cash Magician and stealing the picks and selling them and all that?

 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by mkbini:

Bodio, LVL, Hi Guys,

What's all the mystery here about "the other site" and Cash Magician and stealing the picks and selling them and all that?

Who, where? Why?

 
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Posted: #81
GL bodio.
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by petertjm:

hi Bodio

Are you posting your picks today?

and are you starting another thread?  Thanks for all your work  Pete



WHERE ARE THE PICKS
 
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Posted: #83
NICE BODIO  THANKS.......
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by Barbosa212:


I apologize in advance to Bo, for writing this response in his thread:

Mike-that sites deletes peoples comments, they are like Nazi's. They control the information the public see's.  They are communist bastards.  How is that "genuine"? Why don't you Google the word genuine and see what the real meaning is, not your foggy communist version of the word.  


I'm not aware of any circumstances in which information was deleted that was not of an extremely derogatory nature. Which is par for the course with any forum that is acting responsibly. Again, a few people here have every right to be pissed at that site, Bodio and LVL certainly. Outside of that I honestly don't know what you could be referring to. As far as posting stuff like this in his thread I wouldn't worry about, it might be off topic but it bumps the thread so more people read the thread for what it was intended for. Which is good, because it's good information. I only brought it up again because comments were posted about that site. I use both and really enjoy both, but lets not let one user on that site destroy it's reputation. 

In any event good luck again guys. I'm pretty pissed, I had the Twins U as a strong lean but laid off. Would have been a good way to start out the day.....Oh well, I had Houston as a strong lean yesterday and laid off that, which avoided the loss. It all evens out.      
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by mkbini:

Who, where? Why?

It just involves another site and a user using the information they provide and selling it. Like I said earlier, I wouldn't be surprised at all if several services were doing that to them. Both are very strong handicappers, and it's not exactly like this is an ethical line of work. 
 
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Posted: #86
  That is hard work!! Thank you, Bodio for the breakdown on so many games..!!!!! Best of luck to you brother.. I will tail!!!
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by Mikie2Times:

It just involves another site and a user using the information they provide and selling it. Like I said earlier, I wouldn't be surprised at all if several services were doing that to them. Both are very strong handicappers, and it's not exactly like this is an ethical line of work. 

why would somebosy pay for picks that are free?

 
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Posted: #88

Hey Bodio,

Just a quick question, What would u consider to be a good ground ball/fly ball ratio and how seriously do you take them given standard conditions?

 
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Posted: #89
Mike, you sound like an intelligent guy, but fact of the matter is that they have deleted many comments that were not derogatory. They just didn't fit within their "box". 
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by Mikie2Times:

@Bodio- Good luck, I wish you were still around the other web site as it needs more people like you but understand why you had to leave. 

@Bodio And LVL - Not sure you guys were aware of it but you could still provide people access to your plays and information at no charge on the other web site if you added them as friends. That way only the people who you wan't to see your information will see it and nobody else. Further, while I was new to this type of activity happening, does it surprise you guys at all that it does? Especially in this industry? Hell, I bet people have been doing this to you two a hell of a lot more then what I discovered.   

@Barbosa- That other web site does not suck. It's filled with a lot of genuine, good people. Certainly does not have the statistical information covers does, but it also doesn't have the immaturity in the forums. The two sites really aren't comparable because covers and _____ do not try and accomplish the same things.

Best of luck on everybody today.    
Mike

Thanks Mike.  Good luck to you too.  Hope all as well.  
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by petertjm:

hi Bodio

Are you posting your picks today?

and are you starting another thread?  Thanks for all your work  Pete



YES (posted) and YES!  

Here are my plays for today
 
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Posted: #92
This is amazing stuff. You keep giving and sharing so much of your knowledge. Thanks for all that you do, bodio.
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by Barbosa212:


I apologize in advance to Bo, for writing this response in his thread:

Mike-that sites deletes peoples comments, they are like Nazi's. They control the information the public see's.  They are communist bastards.  How is that "genuine"? Why don't you Google the word genuine and see what the real meaning is, not your foggy communist version of the word.  



Guys, let's drop it.  

Mike, the other site is cool and all, but it's just not for me.  There's not a lot of interaction and frankly I don't want to be part of a site that allows their members to steal others' picks and use as their own (the dude didn't even own up to it until you finally proved what he was doing.  Prior to that he had pages and pages in his bio about how he picks his own plays, etc, etc.. very shady)

Barbosa, it's not worth it.  Mike is a really nice guy actually and a very knowledgeable and respected handicapper.  He's a respected member of that site so he probably doesn't appreciate your comments, even though that's how you feel.  Either way, I hope he spends more time here on Covers even though he's pretty busy working for his clients.   

Either way...Let us all be friends!!!   (except that weasel cashMagician)  

(He seems like an alright guy too actually, just pretty shady in the way he goes about stealing others' plays for his own personal benefit...and I'm not talking about the benefit of betting his own money on them) 
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by mkbini:

Bodio, LVL, Hi Guys,

What's all the mystery here about "the other site" and Cash Magician and stealing the picks and selling them and all that?


Some dude on a pick monitoring site, comes to Covers to find good handicappers and sell THEIR plays to his client as his OWN.  Mike exposed him.  The dude confirmed it and took down his bio which talked about how he goes about handicapping his own plays and warned people NOT to share his plays with anyone or risk expulsion (pretty hypocritical).  That's all.  Right now he's stealing LVL's plays...during the NBA season he was stealing mine.  
 
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Posted: #95
whats that site damit? pregame?
 
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Posted: #96

Bodio, I have a question and I apologize if you've answered it before but do you depreciate a pitchers arm during the season? If so, is it weighted heavily in you model? Personally, I look at abuse points but I guess I was just wondering if that was something you take into account and whether you thought it was a big deal or not. I understand everyone handicaps a little differently but I was just curious on your take on the issue. I saw an article about it here on covers which made me think of it though I had thought about the issue pretty in-depth before.

I know each pitcher is different so to compare apple to apples you would have to compare a pitcher season over season (i.e. do they historically show fatigue in the middle or late in the season) and then as a pitcher ages you would have to weigh it more heavily (amplify the effect of wear and tear on an arm).

 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by Mikie2Times:



In any event good luck again guys. I'm pretty pissed, I had the Twins U as a strong lean but laid off. Would have been a good way to start out the day.....Oh well, I had Houston as a strong lean yesterday and laid off that, which avoided the loss. It all evens out.      

I had a strong lean on Twinkies at -135 but decided to lay off since it shot up to -150 prior to be locking it in. Would have had to sweat it out but it would have been a nice win to start the day...GL buddy
 
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Posted: #98
Alright Bodio, let's put this behind us. I won't let that situation detract from your threads, and won't comment any further. As I told you before, what you do and at no cost at that, well it's a great service to people. Trust me, I want to be more active here. I would gladly offer at least a free play a day, but I'm sure you know why I'm reluctant to do so. For obvious reason the others sites name can't be discussed. Not here to plug anything and I'm sure that will get discussed if it gets mentioned. Your due for a hell of a run buddy, enjoy the ride.
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Some dude on a pick monitoring site, comes to Covers to find good handicappers and sell THEIR plays to his client as his OWN.  Mike exposed him.  The dude confirmed it and took down his bio which talked about how he goes about handicapping his own plays and warned people NOT to share his plays with anyone or risk expulsion (pretty hypocritical).  That's all.  Right now he's stealing LVL's plays...during the NBA season he was stealing mine.  

Thats incredible story about too extremes - one very connyving and the other very stupid. I mean the thief seller and dumbass buyer. I post my picks for two months at livegamestips and have probably the best profit ratio in industry because of the money management and was offered many times money and asked like yourself Bodio about my paypal and why I am sharing hot tips free (5 -10 unit wins) and my answer is always the same - I make enough money betting my own tips. Every dunb ass that wants to pay for picks should understand that he is buying it from the crook that is selling him short twice - once as an affiliate for books and second time for nothing, otherwise a good capper does not need money for his tips - because he makes money from them himself.

 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by UKCrazyDave:

Hey Bodio,

Just a quick question, What would u consider to be a good ground ball/fly ball ratio and how seriously do you take them given standard conditions?


Typically a pitcher that can induce a higher number of Ground Balls than average, tends to be a better pitcher with all other things being equal of course.  Average GB% is around 44%.  Of course there are excellent 'FB' pitchers, but you'll notice that those tend to have high K/9 ratios and K/BB ratios.  Think Greinke and Morrow.  Toronto plays in a 'hitter's' and that's part of the reason why Morrow's numbers there are so horrible.  I backed Greinke in NY against the Yankees yesterday, which was another mistake, since it's also a 'hitter's park and Greinke is a FB pitcher.  (Same thing for Marcum actually who is going tonight).  

I guess to answer your question directly, you should use the GB/FB ratio in conjunction with other key stats when evaluating 2 pitchers.  If you have 2 pitchers and their K/BB ratios, xFIP, tERA, etc. are fairly even and pitcher A has a GB/FB of 1.5 while the other has it at 0.8, and the game is in a 'hitter-friendly' park, well, then pitcher A has an advantage.    (By the way, don't forget to analyze the LD rate since that's not account in this ratio.  That's a critical factor to look at as well.  Average LD% is 18%.  Anything over 20% is pretty bad.  Example: Morrow has a 0.7 GB/FB ratio and a 25% LD%.  If he's not striking guys out, he's most likely getting 'crushed' and that's what has been happening to him in Rogers Centre (3rd most hittable park this year), especially against good hitting teams.

Hope this helps.
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