MLB Daily 6/15/24

MLB Daily 2024 / ($1.00 is my unit, 100 units per play)

Record 24-22-8, +53.79, RoR +1.2%

6/15

F5 Reds +104, Abbott/Wilson

Ah, the secrets I enjoy! While the rest of the Covers Fraternity relies on YTD stats, I keep personal, private records that delete old, worthless stats and keep current with what is happening now. April’s heroes have cooled and April’s failures have heated up. Chuckers have fallen or gotten back on track, but none of that is deleted or adjusted in YTD stats.

The problem is, and too few realize it, is that the MLB regular season is equal to 10 NFL or 5 NBA  regular seasons, considering the number of games played. Guys that wouldn’t for a moment consider 10 or 5 year old stats when handicapping NFL or NBA will still be using YTD stats in MLB when September and October roll around.

The current stats I use tell me the important factors concerning this game give the Reds a 116/92 advantage in current probability, creating a 56% probability of a 5-inning win. For a dog that is enough to make them a strong play. I especially like a dog that rates over 100 points versus a favorite rated under 100 points. Plus money on a likely winner is where I want to be.

BOL  

@KeyElement

This is beautiful analysis.

My sportsbook won't offer First Fives for another 3 to 4 hours.  Would it be okay for me to take the Reds for game?  I can get +118.

@Premian

 That is probably safe - your money, your choice

@KeyElement

This is the kind of matchup that I probably would have missed.  Thanks for bringing it to my attention.  

Good luck with your picks.  

@Premian

@KeyElement

Do you like the Yankees First Five today?  Too much juice?

@KeyElement

@KeyElement

@KeyElement

@Premian

 Keeping an eye on that one - not yet decided

backdoor_cover

Verlander on full rest, 5 innings and 101 pitches last outing,

looks too slim to me, what are your thoughts?

Key, likin redlegs FG also sm dog. Keep up the great work c ur 7-1 killin itttt

@Johnnytwotime

 Imagine reading this and thinking he’s actually asking permission rather than checking whether the full game bet still had an edge

Imagine thinking that yours was a worthwhile contribution to this thread

@Johnnytwotime

@Ramanujan

I am still learning this game.  It's easy to make a mistake.  I did finally decide that the Reds full game meets my new parameters.

@Premian

 I had no issue with your questions. Just the arrogant from Johnny. Good luck with your plays

@Ramanujan

Thanks, good luck with yours also.  

@Johnnytwotime

"Imagine being a grown man asking permission from another grown man if its ok to make a wager"

He wasn't asking for permission, he was looking for advice, a trait little known around here.

@Ramanujan

"Imagine thinking that yours was a worthwhile contribution to this thread"

Out for about 3 hours again this morning. Check in when I get back.

Good luck everyone....just a little concerned that denvedder is picking Milwaukee to win the full game...maybe F5 is safer....his record is pretty legit....35-4....good luck ....cheers 

Sorry...incorrect stat....now 37-4.....that's impressive....he's on King of Covers if you would want verification....cheers 

good luck 

@KeyElement

 Nice write up 

BOL my friend 

@Phillyneffer

 How do I get the access to this? Not trying to verify rather interested in seeing his plays.

So click on Covers Menu ...click on Contests....Click on King of Covers....Click on Join Contest....Click a top Overall Leader board....scroll down to Denvedder....