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MLB FADE THE PUBLIC 5-GAME CHASE (risk .0075% of bankroll, then 75% of loss martingale)

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Veteran
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Posted: #76
Jose reyes said it best on here take the mets when nobody wants to. Like the play. Bol
 
Legend
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Posted: #77
Early game, Thursday:

CHASE 15, 2nd of 5
Rockies -102
$88 to win $86.27

Evening game will be a new chase on Baltimore. Both games not for the faint of heart -- going against Ervin Santana and Mark Buehrle.
 
Legend
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Posted: #78
Rockies win! Brings the YTD record to 15-0, up $485.91.

2 more qualifiers remaining for June 12th:

CHASE 16, 1st of 5
Orioles -115
$50 to win $43.48

CHASE 17, 1st of 5
Pirates -119
$50 to win $42.20

 
Prospect
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Posted: #79
Thanks HK, nice work
 
Legend
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Posted: #80
CHASE 18, 19, 20, all 1st of 5's

Orioles +103
Twins +146
Pirates +115

all risking $50
 
Legend
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Posted: #81
Test.
 
Legend
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Posted: #82
2-1 on Friday, 3-0 on Thursday brings the YTD record to 19-0. Up $652.09.

CHASE 18 goes to 2nd try.

And we have a gem for Saturday: Braves.

Early bets coming in on Garret Richards and the Angels.

Will re-check the percentages (via sportsinsight) a few hours before first pitch.
 
Legend
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Posted: #83
Pulling the trigger early:

CHASE 18, 2nd of 5
Braves +101
$88 to win $88.88
 
Legend
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Posted: #84
0-1 on Saturday.

YTD record: 19-0, up $564.09.

Braves made it interesting last night but 20-0 will have to wait.

There are no qualified "fade the public" play right now but if Washington gets more market support (59% or more) then St. Louis could be a play.
 
Legend
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Posted: #85

0-1 on Monday.

YTD record: 20-0. Up $658.02.

4 possible plays for Tuesday:

HOU 41% D. Keuchel

WAS 59% T. Roark

CHC 37% J. Samardzija

MIA 63% A. DeSclafani

SF 72% M. Cain

CWS 28% J. Danks

TEX 63% Y. Darvish

OAK 37% T. Milone

Will have to wait about 45 minutes before first-pitch to see where the percentages land for the HOU/WAS game. Below 59% is a no-go; anything above 59% is a play. Cubs, White Sox and Athletics are most likely to be qualifying plays.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #86
i like oak for now. darvish usually gets smacked around by oak.
 
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Posted: #87

Below 59% is a no-go; anything above 59% is a play. Cubs, White Sox and Athletics are most likely to be qualifying plays.

quote

Please explain why Cubs, White Sox and A's are qualifying plays?

They are all below 59%...

 
Legend
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Posted: #88
2 fade the public plays for Tuesday, June 17:

CHASE 21, 2nd of 5
White Sox +110
$88 to win $96.80

CHASE 22, 1st of 5
Athletics +101
$ 50 to win $50.50
 
Legend
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by Pelewarrior:

Below 59% is a no-go; anything above 59% is a play. Cubs, White Sox and Athletics are most likely to be qualifying plays.

quote

Please explain why Cubs, White Sox and A's are qualifying plays?

They are all below 59%...



I don't use the percentages from covers.com. Their numbers represent the picks here and not the sportsbooks'.

Percentages are from sportsinsight.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #90
good luck today kane
 
Rookie
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Posted: #91
does this actually work? i'm struggling to wrap my mind around how it actually works 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #92

Thanks HK for the explanation.

 
Legend
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Posted: #93
2-0 on Tuesday brings the YTD record to 22-0. Up $805.32.

3 "fade the public" plays for Wednesday:

PHI 25% R. Hernandez
ATL 75% A. Harang

CHC 34% J. Arrietta
MIA 66% N. Eovaldi

MIL 87% M. Garza
ARI 13% W. Miley
 
Legend
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Posted: #94
Philadelphia is no longer a qualified play. Too big of an underdog; filtering out underdogs that are +150 and above.

Locking in:

CHASE 23, 1st of 5
Cubs +110
$50 to win $55
 
Veteran
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Posted: #95
atl  mia   mil  am I correct?
 
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Posted: #96

Quote Originally Posted by player:

atl  mia   mil  am I correct?
 

oops  my bad   cubs ariz

 
Legend
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Posted: #97
Yes. Cubs for now and will have to wait another 6-8 hour or so to pull the trigger on the Diamondbacks.

Have to wait and see where the percentages settle at for the MIL/ARI game.

Patience is good. Like last night -- saved me from making a play on Houston and the Cubs.
 
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Posted: #98
thanks  HK  
 
Legend
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Posted: #99
Cubs a winner!

Locking in:

CHASE 24, 1st of 5
Diamondbacks -101
$56 to win $55.45
 
 
Captain
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Posts: 7507
Posted: #100
interesting stuff you got here HK. 
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