I want to try my hand at capping baseball this season. I have a decent understanding of the sport but have never kept track or put alot of time/effort into capping it. Just for fun bets type deal. I have been capping hockey semi seriously for a few years and I was just wondering if there are any similarities between the 2 sports. My understanding is that favourites win more in baseball as opposed to hockey and starting pitching is very important. I have a bunch of general questions.
Is it worth laying more in baseball or is it better to try and knock it down a bit with the runline?
They play very frequently so is rest a big factor?
Due to the massive amounts of games, are unit sizes smaller?
How does the capping process change as the season progresses closer to playoffs?
Does a hitters past performance against a pitcher mean anything?
How do older starters fair against younger hitters?
Any input would be appreciated. I'm just trying to form a general game plan going into the season and go from there.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I want to try my hand at capping baseball this season. I have a decent understanding of the sport but have never kept track or put alot of time/effort into capping it. Just for fun bets type deal. I have been capping hockey semi seriously for a few years and I was just wondering if there are any similarities between the 2 sports. My understanding is that favourites win more in baseball as opposed to hockey and starting pitching is very important. I have a bunch of general questions.
Is it worth laying more in baseball or is it better to try and knock it down a bit with the runline?
They play very frequently so is rest a big factor?
Due to the massive amounts of games, are unit sizes smaller?
How does the capping process change as the season progresses closer to playoffs?
Does a hitters past performance against a pitcher mean anything?
How do older starters fair against younger hitters?
Any input would be appreciated. I'm just trying to form a general game plan going into the season and go from there.
fade any pitcher that missed time in spring training, especially if it’s a off speed specialist. Takes them a while to get going.
first half of the season, cap the pitchers. See if anyone gets shelled by certain teams. MLB.com has good prematchup numbers on that.
also read the lines, sometimes reverse line move or a line that makes 0 sense can save your ass making you no play.
also don’t fall in love with any pitcher or team or you’ll get clobbered at some point. Every day is a new day.
And at some point in July/June it all changes and you cap the bats because the ball stars flying. Also you have to determine if it’s juiced ball of last year or a regular ball like they used in the playoffs.
1
Start of the year
fade any pitcher that missed time in spring training, especially if it’s a off speed specialist. Takes them a while to get going.
first half of the season, cap the pitchers. See if anyone gets shelled by certain teams. MLB.com has good prematchup numbers on that.
also read the lines, sometimes reverse line move or a line that makes 0 sense can save your ass making you no play.
also don’t fall in love with any pitcher or team or you’ll get clobbered at some point. Every day is a new day.
And at some point in July/June it all changes and you cap the bats because the ball stars flying. Also you have to determine if it’s juiced ball of last year or a regular ball like they used in the playoffs.
Start of the year fade any pitcher that missed time in spring training, especially if it’s a off speed specialist. Takes them a while to get going. first half of the season, cap the pitchers. See if anyone gets shelled by certain teams. MLB.com has good prematchup numbers on that. also read the lines, sometimes reverse line move or a line that makes 0 sense can save your ass making you no play. also don’t fall in love with any pitcher or team or you’ll get clobbered at some point. Every day is a new day. And at some point in July/June it all changes and you cap the bats because the ball stars flying. Also you have to determine if it’s juiced ball of last year or a regular ball like they used in the playoffs.
Thanks for the input. Do older pitchers that may miss time take more time to get going than a young guy. Do old guys have less rust to shake off?
0
Quote Originally Posted by OGiant23:
Start of the year fade any pitcher that missed time in spring training, especially if it’s a off speed specialist. Takes them a while to get going. first half of the season, cap the pitchers. See if anyone gets shelled by certain teams. MLB.com has good prematchup numbers on that. also read the lines, sometimes reverse line move or a line that makes 0 sense can save your ass making you no play. also don’t fall in love with any pitcher or team or you’ll get clobbered at some point. Every day is a new day. And at some point in July/June it all changes and you cap the bats because the ball stars flying. Also you have to determine if it’s juiced ball of last year or a regular ball like they used in the playoffs.
Thanks for the input. Do older pitchers that may miss time take more time to get going than a young guy. Do old guys have less rust to shake off?
Damn that is a lot of questions. For me its like reading a racing form, you can look at a 1,000 different things, or you can wait until one catches your eye. That one I tend to look for first, is who will probably fail. Baseball is a game of failure, so rather than looking for who will do well, spend your time looking for who will sh=it the bed. In many cases, that can be the entire bullpen, the whole lineup, or the best one the starting pitcher! Example, the kid for LSU yesterday, threw 8 innings giving up 1 hit and he losses. Tough pill. Baseball is a grind and often times one needs a break to get back on track. When you realize a cooler streak, back off for a week and pick up on new trends. Streaks and trends can be very profitable as there is no point spread. Teams winning or losing 17 out of 20 is not uncommon. Just look at spring, it took Pittsburgh a week and a half to get its first win, and Oakland (I think) a week. How a look for streaks, is Rotations. When I post on the NFL, you will hear me talk about Scheduling. Well in baseball it is the rotation, most specifically the ace. It is his job to stop the slide or continue the streak. It is his job to go deep into games and save arms in the pen. Teams that can compete, will put the actual responsibility on the #1 & #2 (Trust) to go deeper, saving fuel or giving break to the pen. I really like to hone in on teams that have spent their arms in an attempt to gain a win, because the front end of the staff shit the bed. Now its all hands on deck, (Johnny whole staff) This normally tends to runs and a beating. Just a few items. There are guys on here who use lots of data, and even algos. Last year I mentioned several times if someone with the analytic end would team up with my experienced approach we would have a huge advantage when they lined up. Thats what Tampa bay has done. They do pretty well with smallest payroll. Unfortunately, most of the egos are too big, and most want to believe they are the best. So we are left with individual hot and cold streaks. Finally, patience and limiting bets, but that's for all sports. Good luck, and c ya around the board.
Are offensive teams more streaky than ones with a good rotation and defense? Also just to clarify, When a team gets to the "all hands on deck" stage you are talking about did you mean that they are the ones laying a beating or they are the ones receiving the beating? I am assuming you also mean the next game(s) after they have spent their starters arms. Thanks for your input.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:
Damn that is a lot of questions. For me its like reading a racing form, you can look at a 1,000 different things, or you can wait until one catches your eye. That one I tend to look for first, is who will probably fail. Baseball is a game of failure, so rather than looking for who will do well, spend your time looking for who will sh=it the bed. In many cases, that can be the entire bullpen, the whole lineup, or the best one the starting pitcher! Example, the kid for LSU yesterday, threw 8 innings giving up 1 hit and he losses. Tough pill. Baseball is a grind and often times one needs a break to get back on track. When you realize a cooler streak, back off for a week and pick up on new trends. Streaks and trends can be very profitable as there is no point spread. Teams winning or losing 17 out of 20 is not uncommon. Just look at spring, it took Pittsburgh a week and a half to get its first win, and Oakland (I think) a week. How a look for streaks, is Rotations. When I post on the NFL, you will hear me talk about Scheduling. Well in baseball it is the rotation, most specifically the ace. It is his job to stop the slide or continue the streak. It is his job to go deep into games and save arms in the pen. Teams that can compete, will put the actual responsibility on the #1 & #2 (Trust) to go deeper, saving fuel or giving break to the pen. I really like to hone in on teams that have spent their arms in an attempt to gain a win, because the front end of the staff shit the bed. Now its all hands on deck, (Johnny whole staff) This normally tends to runs and a beating. Just a few items. There are guys on here who use lots of data, and even algos. Last year I mentioned several times if someone with the analytic end would team up with my experienced approach we would have a huge advantage when they lined up. Thats what Tampa bay has done. They do pretty well with smallest payroll. Unfortunately, most of the egos are too big, and most want to believe they are the best. So we are left with individual hot and cold streaks. Finally, patience and limiting bets, but that's for all sports. Good luck, and c ya around the board.
Are offensive teams more streaky than ones with a good rotation and defense? Also just to clarify, When a team gets to the "all hands on deck" stage you are talking about did you mean that they are the ones laying a beating or they are the ones receiving the beating? I am assuming you also mean the next game(s) after they have spent their starters arms. Thanks for your input.
Start of the year fade any pitcher that missed time in spring training, especially if it’s a off speed specialist. Takes them a while to get going. first half of the season, cap the pitchers. See if anyone gets shelled by certain teams. MLB.com has good prematchup numbers on that. also read the lines, sometimes reverse line move or a line that makes 0 sense can save your ass making you no play. also don’t fall in love with any pitcher or team or you’ll get clobbered at some point. Every day is a new day. And at some point in July/June it all changes and you cap the bats because the ball stars flying. Also you have to determine if it’s juiced ball of last year or a regular ball like they used in the playoffs.
Thanks for the input. Do older pitchers that may miss time take more time to get going than a young guy. Do old guys have less rust to shake off?
I just fade them all if line movement and my other research doesn’t say no play. Most take a few starts to get going, young or old. Unless it’s a fastball guy like Evioldi on Red Sox. If their heater is there rest of their stuff can be mitigated.
dudes who are heavy slider and curve take more time. See scherzer last year. Once his slider clicked he went god mode
1
Quote Originally Posted by PoopAndFarting:
Quote Originally Posted by OGiant23:
Start of the year fade any pitcher that missed time in spring training, especially if it’s a off speed specialist. Takes them a while to get going. first half of the season, cap the pitchers. See if anyone gets shelled by certain teams. MLB.com has good prematchup numbers on that. also read the lines, sometimes reverse line move or a line that makes 0 sense can save your ass making you no play. also don’t fall in love with any pitcher or team or you’ll get clobbered at some point. Every day is a new day. And at some point in July/June it all changes and you cap the bats because the ball stars flying. Also you have to determine if it’s juiced ball of last year or a regular ball like they used in the playoffs.
Thanks for the input. Do older pitchers that may miss time take more time to get going than a young guy. Do old guys have less rust to shake off?
I just fade them all if line movement and my other research doesn’t say no play. Most take a few starts to get going, young or old. Unless it’s a fastball guy like Evioldi on Red Sox. If their heater is there rest of their stuff can be mitigated.
dudes who are heavy slider and curve take more time. See scherzer last year. Once his slider clicked he went god mode
The team that has to approach a game with all hands on deck is just hoping they have a chance to win, it is a good bet to play the opposing team Over total runs and over in the game, as well as for the win as long as you are not having to lay to much juice. Agree whole heartedly with other post (OGiant) that states to fade pitcher who missed time in spring. They tend to be behind and will not be able to go deep into a game. Also agree that baseball is the best sport to ride trends.(Sac) Odds makers cannot mitigate streaks with point spreads. You will also find teams that were bad last year that will be undervalued early. Marlins, San Diego, White sox, maybe... On the flip side, your big favorites that could get out of the box slow, Boston, Nationals, Houston.
thanks this is all good stuff. Is it profitable to take heavy juiced faves in baseball or is runline the way to go? heavy juiced faves in hockey can really bite you
0
Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:
The team that has to approach a game with all hands on deck is just hoping they have a chance to win, it is a good bet to play the opposing team Over total runs and over in the game, as well as for the win as long as you are not having to lay to much juice. Agree whole heartedly with other post (OGiant) that states to fade pitcher who missed time in spring. They tend to be behind and will not be able to go deep into a game. Also agree that baseball is the best sport to ride trends.(Sac) Odds makers cannot mitigate streaks with point spreads. You will also find teams that were bad last year that will be undervalued early. Marlins, San Diego, White sox, maybe... On the flip side, your big favorites that could get out of the box slow, Boston, Nationals, Houston.
thanks this is all good stuff. Is it profitable to take heavy juiced faves in baseball or is runline the way to go? heavy juiced faves in hockey can really bite you
The team that has to approach a game with all hands on deck is just hoping they have a chance to win, it is a good bet to play the opposing team Over total runs and over in the game, as well as for the win as long as you are not having to lay to much juice. Agree whole heartedly with other post (OGiant) that states to fade pitcher who missed time in spring. They tend to be behind and will not be able to go deep into a game. Also agree that baseball is the best sport to ride trends.(Sac) Odds makers cannot mitigate streaks with point spreads. You will also find teams that were bad last year that will be undervalued early. Marlins, San Diego, White sox, maybe... On the flip side, your big favorites that could get out of the box slow, Boston, Nationals, Houston.
thanks this is all good stuff. Is it profitable to take heavy juiced faves in baseball or is runline the way to go? heavy juiced faves in hockey can really bite you
Reverse run lines is bae. especially if its a juiced ball, so few games actually cam down to 1 run games. I like to smash a ML and a -1.5 or the alt line -1.5 for a dog. Then I end up with teams -1 for possible huge pay days, and if they win by 1, then typically it washes. If you can nail dog reverse run lines they are always like +200-300, and with how garbage most bullpens are.... they can be what really makes a season. Marlins were amazing for it last time, their young pitchers were balling out, would hold teams to a few and when they won.... they won big
1
Quote Originally Posted by PoopAndFarting:
Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:
The team that has to approach a game with all hands on deck is just hoping they have a chance to win, it is a good bet to play the opposing team Over total runs and over in the game, as well as for the win as long as you are not having to lay to much juice. Agree whole heartedly with other post (OGiant) that states to fade pitcher who missed time in spring. They tend to be behind and will not be able to go deep into a game. Also agree that baseball is the best sport to ride trends.(Sac) Odds makers cannot mitigate streaks with point spreads. You will also find teams that were bad last year that will be undervalued early. Marlins, San Diego, White sox, maybe... On the flip side, your big favorites that could get out of the box slow, Boston, Nationals, Houston.
thanks this is all good stuff. Is it profitable to take heavy juiced faves in baseball or is runline the way to go? heavy juiced faves in hockey can really bite you
Reverse run lines is bae. especially if its a juiced ball, so few games actually cam down to 1 run games. I like to smash a ML and a -1.5 or the alt line -1.5 for a dog. Then I end up with teams -1 for possible huge pay days, and if they win by 1, then typically it washes. If you can nail dog reverse run lines they are always like +200-300, and with how garbage most bullpens are.... they can be what really makes a season. Marlins were amazing for it last time, their young pitchers were balling out, would hold teams to a few and when they won.... they won big
Its profitable if they don't lose. I don't like taking run line favorite at home, winning by 1 run can be annoying.
Taking -1.5 on the home team in baseball, is like taking a +1.5 dog in Hockey.
Home team up by one, closer finishes em in the top on the 9th and there's no need to bat in the bottom of the 9th.
Hockey, your team is down by one and your bet is winning. Last minute or so of play your team pulls the goalie...empty netter, and your +1.5 is gone with the wind.
1
Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:
Its profitable if they don't lose. I don't like taking run line favorite at home, winning by 1 run can be annoying.
Taking -1.5 on the home team in baseball, is like taking a +1.5 dog in Hockey.
Home team up by one, closer finishes em in the top on the 9th and there's no need to bat in the bottom of the 9th.
Hockey, your team is down by one and your bet is winning. Last minute or so of play your team pulls the goalie...empty netter, and your +1.5 is gone with the wind.
Its profitable if they don't lose. I don't like taking run line favorite at home, winning by 1 run can be annoying.
Taking -1.5 on the home team in baseball, is like taking a +1.5 dog in Hockey. Home team up by one, closer finishes em in the top on the 9th and there's no need to bat in the bottom of the 9th. Hockey, your team is down by one and your bet is winning. Last minute or so of play your team pulls the goalie...empty netter, and your +1.5 is gone with the wind.
I never would have thought about it like that but it makes perfect sense
0
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:
Its profitable if they don't lose. I don't like taking run line favorite at home, winning by 1 run can be annoying.
Taking -1.5 on the home team in baseball, is like taking a +1.5 dog in Hockey. Home team up by one, closer finishes em in the top on the 9th and there's no need to bat in the bottom of the 9th. Hockey, your team is down by one and your bet is winning. Last minute or so of play your team pulls the goalie...empty netter, and your +1.5 is gone with the wind.
I never would have thought about it like that but it makes perfect sense
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