MLB is SO AGGRAVATING

Hello Fellows,

Is it just me or does anyone else bang their head against the wall with MLB? This is the sport spent the most time in handicapping and the most unpredictable. The variance is just so wild that I cant wrap my head around any logic with it.

I am PRIMARILY an O/U player. I look at pitching/batting stats such as WHIP, wOBA, wRC+, ERA to get a gauge around a total. All I see so far is good pitchers getting smoked by bad batting teams and not so good pitchers throwing elite numbers against great batting teams and very few runs scored. When I take the under, I'm watching the over and when I take the over, Im watching a tie game into the bottom of the ninth.

How does everyone else handicap MLB Totals here?

    Its almost like you can throw stats out nowadays.......How many F'N  times I see a hitter who owns a pitcher and gets the night off......only to PH after the MoFo is taken out. Pitching stats when capping a game, well throw those out too nowadays,these pampered wussies are lucky to make it thru 4. Most managers nowadays like changing it up with 2 inning rotations or leaving their starter out their to get tattooed. Besides these overpaid Pampered PU$$$$ies playing the game today I hold all the blame on these next wannabe Billy Beane GM's or Skippers who are  either over or under thinking it. Thats my 2 cents

A similar situation situation is taking place in College Football as
well. Early entries to the draft , creation of the transfer portal and
players taking their senior year off so they don't hurt their draft
stock . Ive been Sports Betting for 40 years and it's never been
this tough to end a season with a profit.

But I'm not ready to retire yet    

No one likes a quitter brother   Ive got over 40 years at this animal myself

Amen Bud . Keeping up with the evolution of Sports and trying to
make the necessary adjustments in capping to succeed is actually
a challenge that I thrive on. I love the challenge as I try to improve
my results each year  while trying to stay a step ahead of da Books .

To us Geezers       

1 More while were at, this is the 1 that makes me want to put my fist through something preferably the managers face. You Leave a starter to get shell shocked for 4 or 5 runs in 1 inning with no outs and no sight of anyone warming up so you know whats coming if your holding that ticket but this genius whoever it maybe and theirs many in todays game will runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs and 1 of his struggling high paid Pu$$$$$ies who is struggling with a low 2ish AVG or less,and instead of sacrificing them into scoring position he lets them swing into Double Play or just plain gets the whiff hints his BA 

This thread has classic degenerate rant stautus in the making.

Not a rant , but just an observation.

I think that  all sports continue to evolve in the way their game
 is played as well as strategised. I think this has a lot to do with
the advent of analytics being relied on more and more in the
decision making process. It has forced me to integrate analytics
in my capping strategy if I hope to cash any tickets on a regular
basis.

The Games continue to change , both technically and strategically
and to succeed at what we do , we must keep up with that change..

sac  

This is exactly my point! The amount of data analytics involved in the decision making process is immense. With that said, baseball by far is the sport with the MOST data concerning "play", but consistently, the data doesn't correlate.

 

Absolutely Wiseguy

Follow my picks and strategy. I promise you will come out on top.

Respect to the geezers. you guys are Bosses!

Good Thread

These so called old timers and geezers here, many are brilliant....trust me

Sac , Thank you for this as you have so eloquently stated the
points that I was trying to make.

The first statment is incredibly important to ones ability to quantify
a matchup and accurately determine the likelihood of a result.
Unfortunately, many who wager lack this skill and rely on stats
as a substitute for this skill. All stats are backward looking and
unless one knows how ( and what ) stats can be effectively as a
predictor for future matchups , their odds of success on a wager
are not good , or certainly not improved unless they what the
stats are trying to tell them. Stats will never be able to quantify
any players motivation on any given night , but they may be able
to tell a bettor which teams to avoid wagering on.

The second point is great because most who wager think looking
at stats and the use of analytics are the same thing . They are
not. You are correct in your statement that most bettors " look at
stats and make guesses "..That is not what the effective use of
analytics is about. Analytics used properly provide an effective
way to diagnose an element in any process ( in this case to
predict the outcome of a sporting event ) , identify the parameters
necessary to accurately predict an outcome ,and to provide the
probability that the assessment is a correct one.  Most have no
idea how to do this , so guessing will have to suffice for them.


sac , Well said , Bud  

Rather than use the term " Data Analytics " you should proably
say " Stats " instead. There are thousands of stats you can use
in your assessment of a matchup , but only a handful of them
are likely to help your ability to quantify any matchup.
The key is to have a firm understanding of just what stats are
telling you , but more importantly ..... what they are Not telling you.
To make an accurate assessment using stats . it is important to
know with certanty the probability that any stat you use will provide
you with an accurate result.

Blessings and Good luck  

One Last thing on this subject

A properly crafted analytic requires thorough research to verify
and determine the accuracy of  each and every data point  as
well as the probability of a consistent result. This is validated by
a measurement means over many , many trials .
In a properly crafted analytic , there is no guesswork , as all
elements are strictly measured and verified. One cannot
accurately measure probability without this step.This is also the
means to verify that any data point is truly helpful in reaching a
useful and accurate conclusion.


GLTA