Posted:
#326
With you on DET. BOL 
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MLB Season Long Investment Plan
Posted:
#347
how about this, all from free articles from sportsinsights.com:
11. HD<25% ATS= 55%ATS HS<20% = 75% ATS though this is based on not a large number of games
12. Any team home or away <23% = 54% ATS in MLB and NBA (think against the Yankees)
13. <30%= 26 units per season, especially the home team at beginning of season and visiting team at end of season
14. Fade all HT that are getting <50% of public bets will win too (about 60% of home teams win in MLB so this makes sense- its hard to win on the road no matter who you are
15. Fade anyone <20% between -200 and +200 ML- 56% win rate and 14 units per year or more
16. Any home dog = 56 % win rate, 21 units gained but this is over many years, so the ROI is lower on these bets
17. HT <20% bets= 58% win rate and 24 units over many years
18. HD <20% -52.6% ATS
19. Home Teams getting less than 50%= 12-20 units per year, less than 40%= 14 units per year, <30%= 12 units per year (this could be the ‘sweet spot’), <20%=6 U /yr, <10%=6 U/yr
20. Smart money = about 55% ats and 12+ units per year
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Posted:
#348
MLB
1. Betting agaist the public for any team in the MLB = ~70 to 100 units per year, so set up a monkey to do this for you and you will likely make money though no one knows if the future wil mirror the past
2. All HT (home teams) <50% public bet = 20-70 units/season
3. And HD<25% of public bet %= +10 units per year (equals a 60% ATS Win rate- which is hard to achieve in any sport)
4. <30-35% cutoff (which seems to be the cutoff for most sports)= 24 units in 2011 half way through
5. At <40% of public bets= 35 units per year of ~54.5% ATS equivalent and about 0.03 units/game
6. Fading the public at the 30% level gives 25units per year and most of those units come in june and july, visiting teams did better at the end of the season
7. THE BEST ROI (return on investment)- going against the public with a 10 moneyline move in the opposite direction- about 55-60% ATS return, indicates sharp or smart money, you don’t need to know anything about the teams just follow smart money, this will result in fewer games, but don’t worry you’ll actually make money gambling per historic trends. Any team <50% with 10 moneyline move in opposite direction- about 55-60% ATS and 0.1 units gained per game
8. MLB visitor <30% makes money too
9. HD <35%=55%ATS
10. HD<30%= 59% ATS
0
Posted:
#349
21. Spring training HT<50% = 21u/yr 55% win rate, <25% = 24 u/yr and 58% win rate
22. Pinnacle is used to detect change in line or indicate smart money (see sport insight website below for that info
23. Any team <40%= only a 0.3% ROI and 5 u/yr
24. Any team <20%= 20u/yr and a whopping 4% ROI!! (so be selective if limited bankroll and onlydo 2-4 % of your bank roll, don’t increase or decrease your bets
25. Any team between 20-40% = 1% ROI
26. Most units per game gained are at 70% bet against level and 25 u/yr averageing +149 ML odds, 0.04u/gae, so you are looking in the 25-30% level
27. Smart money >10 ML move in opposite direction of public betting makes about 48 u/yr, more units/game at <20% level but most overall units at <50% because there are more games
https://www.sportsinsights.com/mlb-betting-trends.aspxhttps://www.sportsinsights.com/mlb-betting-trends.aspxhttps://www.fantasybetszone.com/public_trends.php
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