MLB Season Long Investment Plan

MLB

1.       Betting agaist the public for any team in the MLB = ~70 to 100 units per year, so set up a monkey to do this for you and you will likely make money though no one knows if the future wil mirror the past

2.       All HT (home teams) <50% public bet = 20-70 units/season

3.       And HD<25% of public bet %= +10 units per year (equals a 60% ATS Win rate- which is hard to achieve in any sport)

4.       <30-35% cutoff (which seems to be the cutoff for most sports)= 24 units in 2011 half way through

5.       At <40% of public bets= 35 units per year of ~54.5% ATS equivalent and about 0.03 units/game

6.       Fading the public at the 30% level gives 25units per year and most of those units come in june and july, visiting teams did better at the end of the season

7.       THE BEST ROI (return on investment)- going against the public with a 10 moneyline move in the opposite direction- about 55-60% ATS return, indicates sharp or smart money, you don’t need to know anything about the teams just follow smart money, this will result in fewer games, but don’t worry you’ll actually make money gambling per historic trends.  Any team <50% with 10 moneyline move in opposite direction- about 55-60% ATS and 0.1 units gained per game

8.       MLB visitor <30% makes money too

9.       HD <35%=55%ATS

10.   HD<30%= 59% ATS

21.   Spring training HT<50% = 21u/yr 55% win rate, <25% = 24 u/yr and 58% win rate

22.   Pinnacle is used to detect change in line or indicate smart money (see sport insight website below for that info

23.   Any team <40%= only a 0.3% ROI and 5 u/yr

24.   Any team <20%= 20u/yr and a whopping 4% ROI!! (so be selective if limited bankroll and onlydo 2-4 % of your bank roll, don’t increase or decrease your bets

25.   Any team between 20-40% = 1% ROI

26.   Most units per game gained are at 70% bet against level and 25 u/yr averageing +149 ML odds, 0.04u/gae, so you are looking in the 25-30% level

27.   Smart money >10 ML move in opposite direction of public betting makes about 48 u/yr, more units/game at <20% level but most overall units at <50% because there are more games

https://www.sportsinsights.com/mlb-betting-trends.aspxhttps://www.fantasybetszone.com/public_trends.php