YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS): 5-1 ATS
Been a really good start to the playoffs. Today I think there is a mismatch with Cleveland playing at home and throwing Bibee in Game 1. I like how Detroit is playing and am wary of the results last year to teams who "waited" to play but I just think this is a bit different. The Tigers will begin the series with a bullpen game and Tyler Holton has been good in this role. BUT, Jose Ramirez has torched him as well as all Detroit pitching more or less, not just this year, but over his career.
On the other side of the mound, Tanner Bibee takes the ball for Cleveland and he has NOT been very good against Detroit over his career, and has not been quite as good at home this year, where his ERA is a full run and a half higher at home. Usually these games would have me go with an UNDER as it's an early affair, a lot of playoff pressure, etc..I do like Cleveland here with their experience but the Tigers are doing some really cool things and have been torrid over the past two months. So I'm going to go with what I feel is a play not only on the spread, but on the outcome of the first playoff game of the afternoon:
DETROIT/CLEVELAND OVER 6.5 (-120): This was at 7 yesterday and I think people are mistakenly betting this down given Bibee's overall numbers and the Cleveland bullpen. These teams are very familiar with one another and have played 6-4 to the OVER in the last 10. I think it's a bit more of an entertaining affair heading into some other great matchups.
I'll most likely be back at some point to add to the plays. Full disclosure I'm traveling today so I will definitely try my best. Do your own research as well and, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all..
believe under was the right call at the end of the day
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