MLB Tuesday Info

Cincinnati pitcher Wade Miley is 8-2 in his last 10 team-starts in June, and 3-0 in his last three team-starts versus NL East opponents.

@RLeith35

 You mean July?

The Rockies are 15-0 SU since Aug. 25, 2018 when German Marquez starts as a home favorite of at least -130 when they won his last start.

The Rangers are 8-0 OU (4.62 ppg) since Aug. 24, 2016 as a favorite after shutout in game prior.

The Rangers are 0-14 SU since Sept. 18, 2019 on the road when they won in each of their starter's last two outings.

The White Sox are 13-0 SU since Aug. 16, 2020 as a home favorite after they left fewer than 10 men on base individually last game.

• Triston McKenzie RHP (1-3, 5.47 ERA)
• Luis Garcia RHP (6-5, 3.06 ERA)

For my first play, we have the Astros and Indians set to square off for the second of a three-game series on Tuesday night – as a pair of rookies are currently slated to take the mound for their respective teams in this matchup, with Triston McKenzie expected to get the ball for Cleveland, and Luis Garcia for Houston.

After sending McKenzie down to Triple-A due to his terrible streak of appearances to open the season (42.1 IP, 6.38 ERA), the Indians recalled the right-hander for a spot start against the Royals in the waning days before the All-Star Break – and he finally responded with a solid effort (7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER).

Garcia, on the other hand, has been incredibly consistent to kick off his rookie campaign – most recently highlighted by the 24-year-old Venezuelan tossing five or more innings and giving up two runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts, driving his ERA all the way down to 3.06 for the season.

I’ll take the run line with Houston here, as the Indians were 3-8 in games that McKenzie appeared in during the first half of the season – and over half of those losses came by three runs or more. Hou -1.5 +105 / M.Crosson

• Aaron Nola RHP (6-5, 4.53 ERA)
• Domingo German RHP (4-5, 4.39 ERA)

For my second play, I’ll head to the Big Apple where the Yankees will host the Phillies for the first of a three-game series on Tuesday night – with Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola and New York’s Domingo German expected to square off for the second time this season.

After going 18-4 in 2019 and then being forced to serve a suspension for all of 2020, German’s long-awaited return to the Yankees’ rotation has been incredibly underwhelming – considering he accumulated an ERA of 4.50 across his first 15 starts on the year (4-5), before getting relegated to the bullpen in his latest three outings (6 IP, 7 H, 5 ER).

In German’s first start against the Phillies back in June, Aaron Boone might have left his starter out there a bit too long, as Philadelphia teed off for seven runs on 10 hits in the first five innings of the bout – which never really gave his team much of a chance to get back in it.

Just to add fuel to the fire though, Nola countered German with a lights out performance during the event – as the 27-year-old LSU product tossed 7.2 scoreless innings on just three hits in his second career start against New York, easily handing German his fourth loss of the season.

New York’s recent struggles against Nola shouldn’t come as a total surprise for tenured Yankees’ fans though, considering the right-hander was almost just as impressive in his first career start against them last season (6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 12 K) – despite Philadelphia losing the contest 3-1.

I’ll take Philadelphia’s first five innings run line here, as the Phillies saw the ball well up-and-down the lineup in their first meeting with German this year – and Nola has been nearly untouchable in both of his career starts against the Yankees (13.2 IP, 0.66 ERA). Phil F5-1/2

+110 / M.Crosson

Play On
Any team (NY YANKEES)
off a win of 8 runs or more over a division rival, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts

32-12 over the last 5 seasons.
72.7% (20.2 units)

Play Against
Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI)
with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs

37-15 since 1997.
71.2% (22.4 units)

Play Against
All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS)
with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts

97-58 since 1997.
62.6% (38.9 units)

Play Against
Any team (OAKLAND)
cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games

176-150 over the last 5 seasons.
54.0% (62.4 units)

Play Against
Road teams (BALTIMORE)
after allowing 1 run or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 2 runs or less

102-67 over the last 5 seasons.
60.4% (39.0 units)

These are the stats that make money 

Play On
Any team (TEXAS)
after 3 straight games where they had 5 or less hits, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games

37-17 over the last 5 seasons.
68.5% (23.1 units)

@RLeith35

 That's scary 

Play Against
All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (COLORADO)
NL team with a low slugging percentage (<=.400) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games

47-40 over the last 5 seasons.
54.0% (26.5 units)

Even with all of Aroldis Chapman’s struggles at the back end of the Yankees’ bullpen, the club projects out as a much better group than Philadelphia once the starters depart from the game.

The Phillies have blown more saves than any team in baseball, with current closer Ranger Suárez due for some negative regression as well. There should be a bigger spread between the first-five innings price and the full game, and the Philadelphia bullpen’s high walk rate is too concerning to trust betting in the late innings.

Nola is going to turn his season around. And after two weeks off, this is a great spot to back him to shut down a weaker New York lineup.

Pick: Phillies — First Five Innings (-125 or better) A.Dabbbundo

appreciate all the info 

Phil is 5-5 ML / 5-4 RL / 6-2 UN  vs  N.Y.

Tex is 7-3 ML / 5-5 RL / 5-4 UN   vs Det

S.D is 3-7 ML / 4-6 RL / 7-3 UN vs Atl

Clev is 1-9 ML / 5-5 RL / 7-2 UN vs Hou

Cubs are 7-3 ML / 7-3 RL / 5-5 o/u vs St.L

Sea is 3-7 ML/ 3-7  RL / 6-4 UN vs Col

BREWERS   -155

 Brewers are 12-1 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 games following an off day.

 Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

 Royals are 0-4 in Minors last 4 starts.

Royals are 25-53 in their last 78 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Brewers are 7-2 in their last 9 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.

Royals are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.

WSOX   -141

White Sox are 5-0 in Keuchels last 5 home starts.

White Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 overall.

Twins are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Twins are 2-9 in their last 11 road games.