MLB WED INFO

Play Against
Road teams (TORONTO)
with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games, in October games

76-40 over the last 5 seasons.
65.5% (34.4 units)

Play Against
Road teams (TEXAS)
cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games, in October games

51-16 over the last 5 seasons.
76.1% (28.9 units)

Play Against
Road teams (ARIZONA)
with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games, in October games

76-40 over the last 5 seasons.
65.5% (34.4 units)

The moneyline for this contest implies a 60.8% chance of a victory for the Phillies. This season Philadelphia has won 31 of its 50 games, or 62%, when favored by at least -155 on the moneyline. Miami has a win-loss record of 12-20 when favored by +132 or worse by sportsbooks this year. Dunkel's Pick: Philadelphia (-155).

The OVER/UNDER has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games

The Phillies are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games when playing at home against Miami A.Rome

Take the over. The current Phillies’ roster is batting .353 and owns a .440 wOBA against Miami starter Braxton Garrett. Their expected batting average against Garrett is also .374, with a .619 expected slugging percentage and a .444 xwOBA as well. Nola, meanwhile, has good numbers against the current Miami roster but he posted a 5.47 ERA over his final five starts.

Marlins vs. Phillies Game 2 MLB Playoffs Prediction: OVER 8

The Diamondbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Milwaukee

Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games when playing Arizona

The Over/Under has gone UNDER in 10 of Milwaukee’s last 13 games at home A.Rome

Take Arizona. If anyone believes the Diamondbacks can’t pull off another upset in Milwaukee, they haven’t been paying attention. The Brewers were historically bad offensively last postseason and don’t appear to be much better. Their offense is fine in the regular season, but this team doesn’t hit home runs and that has cost them in years past. The Freddy Peralta-Zac Gallen pitching matchup is a wash.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Game 2 MLB Playoffs Prediction: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS +110

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto’s last 5 games on the road

The Over/Under has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota

Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto by A.Rome

Take the under. The current Toronto roster is batting just .189 against Minnesota starter Sonny Gray. The Blue Jays’ expected metrics versus Gray are also rough, with a .209 expected batting average, a .349 expected slug and a .303 xwOBA. The Twins’ current roster hasn’t had much success against Jose Berrios, either. Minnesota is batting just .161 against the right-hander, with a .254 wOBA. Their expected batting average against Berrios is a paltry .149, while their expected slugging percentage is just .247. Runs should once again be at a premium today at Target Field.

Blue Jays vs. Twins Game 2 MLB Playoffs Prediction: UNDER 7.5

Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tampa Bay’s last 11 games by A.Rome

Take Texas. I backed the Rangers yesterday and I see little reason to fade them today. Nathan Eovaldi owns a .178 batting average against and a .223 wOBA versus the Rays’ current roster. His .208 expected batting average against, .270 expected slugging percentage and his .251 xwOBA are all outstanding as well. The current Rangers’ roster is also batting .455 against Zach Eflin, with a .642 wOBA. Their expected slugging percentage versus Eflin is also a healthy .603, with a .376 xwOBA mixed in as well.

Rangers vs. Rays Game 2 MLB Playoffs Prediction: TEXAS RANGERS +136

Texas (1-0) @ Tampa Bay
Eovaldi is 1-1, 10.13 in his last three starts.
Rangers are 15-10 in his starts, 1-4 in last five road starts.
Over 4-1-1 last six starts
He is 4-3, 3.14 in 11 playoff games (6 starts).
He is 7-6, 3.89 in 15 starts vs Tampa Bay.

Rangers’ bullpen pitched only 2 innings last night.
Texas was 2-13 with RISP.
Texas is in the playoffs for first time since 2016.
Bochy won three World Series when he managed the Giants.
His postseason record: 45-33

Tampa Bay won Eflin’s last six starts (3-0, 3.24)
Tampa Bay is 23-8 in his starts, 14-4 at home.
Over is 7-2 in his last nine starts.
He’s given up 4 runs in 10.2 IP in 10 playoff relief stints
This is his first playoff start. 
He gave up 7 runs in 4 IP in his one start vs Texas, in 2017.

Tampa Bay committed four errors last night.
Rays had only six hits last nite, was 1-6 with RISP.
Tampa had 3 relievers throw four innings last nite.
Tampa Bay is in the playoffs for the sixth year in a row.
Cash’s playoff record: 15-18

Toronto @ Minnesota (1-0)
Berrios was 2-2, 3.41 in five September starts.
Toronto is 17-15 in his starts, 9-8 on road.
Under is 3-1 in his last four starts.
He is 0-1, 3.75 in three playoff games (2 starts)
He is 3-1, 4.03 in five starts vs Minnesota.

Toronto had 6 hits last nite, was 2-9 with RISP.
Toronto used five relievers last night; they got 12 outs.
Blue Jays lost five of their last seven games.
Toronto is in playoffs for third time in four years.
Schneider’s playoff record: 0-3

Gray is 1-1, 1.06 in his last three starts.
Minnesota is 14-18 in his starts, 1-5 in his last six at home.
Under 3-0 in his last three starts.
He is 0-2, 2.95 in four playoff starts.
He is 4-4, 2.91 in 14 starts vs Toronto.

Minnesota won last nite, first playoff win since 2004.
Twins used 4 relievers last night; they got last 10 outs. 
Minnesota is 9-3 in its last 12 games overall.
Twins are in playoffs for first time since 2020.
Baldelli’s playoff record: 1-5

Arizona (1-0) @ Milwaukee
Gallen is 3-2, 3.73 in his last five starts.
Arizona is 19-15 in his starts, 7-11 on road.
Over is 5-2-1 in his last eight starts.
He’s never pitched in the playoffs.
He is 3-3, 1.75 in six starts vs Milwaukee.

Arizona trailed 3-0 last nite, rallied for 6-3 win. 
Six relievers got 19 outs.
Arizona was 1-10 with RISP, still scored six runs.
Diamondbacks are in playoffs for first time since 2017.
Lovullo’s playoff record: 2-3

Peralta was 1-2, 3.97 in five September starts.
Milwaukee is 17-13 in his starts, 12-4 at home.
Under is 2-0-1 in his last three starts.
He is 0-0, 3.13 in three playoff games (8 IP, 1 start)  
He is 3-0, 0.55 in four games (2 starts) vs Arizona.

Milwaukee had 12 hits last night- they were 3-11 with RISP. 
Milwaukee used six relievers to get 15 outs last nite.
Closer Williams threw 31 pitches last nite.
Brewers are in playoffs for fifth game in six years.
Counsell’s playoff record: 7-11

Miami @ Philadelphia (1-0)
Garrett is 2-2, 2.45 in his last five starts.
Marlins are 21-10 in his starts, 10-5 on road.
Under is 6-3 in his last nine starts.
He’s never pitched in the playoffs.
He is 2-1, 4.50 in five starts vs Philadelphia

Marlins had 9 hits last nite, were 2-7 with RISP
Miami used four relievers, for an inning each. 
Marlins are in playoffs for first time since 2020
Last time Miami was in playoffs in a full season: 2003
Schumaker’s playoff record: 0-1 (first year as a manager)

Nola is 0-0, 2.13 in his last two starts.
Phillies are 19-13 in his starts, 5-0 in his last five home starts.
Over is 4-1 in his last five starts.
He is 2-2, 4.91 in five playoff starts.
He is 5-10, 3.58 in 23 starts vs Miami.

Phillies had 11 hits last nite, were 3-14 with RISP
Three relievers got the last seven outs.
Phillies won 9 of their last 12 games overall.
Philly is 7-1 in its last eight home games.
Phillies are in playoffs for second year in a row.
Before last year, last time they were in playoffs was 2011.
Thomson’s playoff record: 12-6

Excellent info 

T.B. ML 7-0 FAV OFF LOSS

T.B. OV 8-0 L 8 HOME ON BB GMS

MIN  RL   TOR 0-4 VS A.L. CENTRAL

TOR UN  8-0 L 8  PLAYOFFS

ARIZ  ML 6-0 VS N.L CENTRAL

PHIL UN 5-0 L 5 PLAYOFFS

MIA ML 6-1 AS DOGS ON BB GMS

Sides and Totals for Wednesday, October 4

• Arizona Diamondbacks / Milwaukee Brewers, Over 7 (-120, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 7.5, -110)
• Minnesota Twins F5 (-130, Risk 1u) at Bet365 (bet to -133)
• Toronto Blue Jays / Minnesota Twins, Under 8.5 (-115, Risk 1u) at FanDuel (bet to 8, -103)
• Tampa Bay Rays F5 (-135, Risk 1u) at FanDuel (bet to -143)
• Wild Card Series Price: Milwaukee Brewers (+245, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +235) by Zerillo

• Alec Bohm, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +100)
• Nathan Eovaldi Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-120, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to 14, -120)
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By D.J. James

Look, the Tampa Bay Rays put together an awful performance in Tuesday’s game, but they have a chance to put up some offense on Wednesday.

Nathan Eovaldi will start for the Texas Rangers on Wednesday. He has been battling a forearm strain this season, and since returning from the injured list, he has not seen much success. He has a 3.63 ERA and 3.99 xERA on the season, but in September (after the injury), he held a 9.30 ERA over 20 1/3 innings while allowing seven homers. He allowed eight over 19 starts beforehand.

The Rays slumped a bit in September when a right-hander started against them, but they had a 119 wRC+ and .779 OPS since August 1 in the regular season. They also had seven active players above a .330 xwOBA. This team could hit when it mattered, so they should be able to piece together solid plate appearances against an ailing starting pitcher.

Adding onto that, the Rangers sported a 4.32 xFIP with a 9.2% walk rate out of the bullpen. The Rays are not a particularly patient team, but they should be able to push across runs late in the game.

In addition, if Eovaldi struggles early, he will not be able to have much of an impact in this matchup. This will put the weaker middle relief staff into the mix for the Rangers and allow Tampa Bay opportunities to score.

Take the Rays team total over to 5 (-125). Expect an offensive performance for them.

By Tony Sartori

The Rangers take their 1-0 series lead back into Tampa on Wednesday, and I think we get another low-scoring affair similar to Game 1.

Yeah, both lineups are extremely strong and that is why we are catching this total at eight. However, both starting pitchers should be up to the task.

Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi takes the mound for Texas and is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Earning an All-Star nod, Eovaldi went 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

His underlying metrics are also strong, ranking in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Whiff%, BB% and Barrel%. Meanwhile, right-hander Zach Eflin gets the ball for the Rays.

He also had a career year, going 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Eflin's analytics are even stronger than Eovaldi's, ranking in the 74th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Chase%, K%, BB% and Hard-Hit%.

There have now been eight or fewer total runs scored in each of the past four meetings between these two clubs.

Great stuff RL 

By Brad Cunningham

Ever since Nathan Eovaldi returned from his forearm injury, he's been awful. In his six starts since returning, he's given up a whopping 21 earned runs, opposing hitters have a .313 average against him and his BB/9 rate is up at 5.75.

Eovaldi also has pretty drastic splits when facing righties versus lefties. He's fantastic against lefties, but against righties he has allowed a .331 wOBA. The Rays are the most analytical team in baseball, so they know this, which means you may very well see nine right-handed bats in the lineup today from a team that is top five in baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Zach Eflin, on the other hand, has been pitching outstanding down the stretch. In the month of September, Eflin has a 2.69 xFIP, 11.67 K/9 rate and only a 1.33 BB/9 rate. Eflin also has a 105 Pitching+ rating over that time frame, which is 15th best in baseball.

The Rangers hit everything over the first half of the season, but over the second half they had a 110 wRC+, which is a significant drop from before the All-Star break, while Tampa Bay actually had a better wRC+ than the Rangers over that time frame.

I have the Rays projected at -166 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them for the first five innings at -138.

By Collin Whitchurch

An F5 wager is a bet, more than a full game moneyline or anything else, on a starting pitching edge, and the Twins have one this afternoon in Sonny Gray against Jose Berrios.

I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong about Berrios coming into the season. He was one of my favorite pitchers to bet against in 2022, and that strategy cost me quite a bit of money early on in 2023.

Berrios rebounded quite nicely, putting up a 3.65 ERA across 189 2/3 innings after looking like a pitcher bound for unemployment the season prior. Still, his expected stats weren't a huge believer in that improvement, as his xERA sat at 4.51 and DRA had him at 4.35.

Regardless of what you believe about Berrios' true talent, he's an inferior pitcher to Gray, who was also probably a bit lucky to find himself with a 2.79 ERA, but whose expected stats (3.66 xERA, 4.01 DRA) still outpace his counterpart on Wednesday.

The Twins also have been mashing right-handed pitching virtually all season, and while they are slightly below average against sliders and changeups, they're a top-6 offense against fastballs, which is Berrios' primary offering.

I prefer to stay away from the bullpens after Tuesday's tight game, but I love getting Gray against Berrios at a reasonable price.

I would bet the Twins F5 ML at -145 or better.

By Anthony Dabbundo

Aaron Nola's season has been mired by inconsistency. He's struggled to pitch deep into games, been poor with runners on base and consistently underperformed his underlying pitch metrics. Nola did end the season on a high note with back-to-back quality outings against the Braves and Pirates following a small tweak in his delivery and an increase in his changeup usage.

The changeup usage will be key in this outing against the Marlins, who feature a bunch of solid left-handed bats. Nola has had his struggles the third time through the order especially, but I'm expecting Nola to be on a considerably shorter leash than normal as the Phillies try to close out this series.

Philadelphia has home-field advantage, a clear offensive edge and a relatively well-rested bullpen following last night's dominant outing from Zack Wheeler. The market has soured a bit on Nola, but I'm closer to the belief that he's found something in the last two starts. With a shorter leash and an elite bullpen behind him, Nola and the Phillies are too short at -150 on Wednesday.

Braxton Garrett's underlying metrics (4.51 xERA and 92 Stuff+) aren't as good as Nola anyway (3.74 xERA, 101 Stuff+).

I'd bet Philadelphia at -160 or better.

While Nola struggled against the Marlins this season, Garrett owned a 5.40 ERA in two starts vs. Philly. It turns out that trying to pitch to contact against a team that owns a 108 wRC+ against lefties isn't a winning formula, especially when you consider strikeouts are really the one thing that can slow the Phillies.

I'm encouraged by what we saw on Tuesday out of the Philly offense, which racked up 11 hits and likely would have scored more if it had gone better than 3-for-14 with runners in scoring position. I'm equally encouraged by the outlook for the Marlins here, given their positive results against Nola this year and their ability to get balls back into play.

Nola's .241 xBA should really pay off for those who believe in the Marlins lineup; the right-hander has been searching for his strikeout touch all year and has really struggled without it.

With the Marlins getting a bat on everything, and the Phillies remaining hot at the dish against a pitcher they match up very well with, I think we will see plenty of offense here. by K.Ducey

This season, Nathan Eovaldi earned the second All-Star appearance of his career. He was in AL Cy Young contention and struck out at least four batters in his first 17 starts of the season.

After pitching six shutout innings against the Rays on July 18th, Eovaldi went on the IL with a 2.69 ERA. He returned in September but posted a 9.30 ERA in six starts, ending the season with a 3.63 ERA.

If Eovaldi's struggles continue, his earned line (over 2.5 runs at +130) is of interest. However, it is tough to confidently back the Rays to score three runs in likely five innings when they have scored just two in their last 32 innings of postseason baseball.

Consequently, I am pivoting to Eovaldi's strikeouts, which may be favorable in light of his rough September.

Eovaldi averaged 5.3 strikeouts per start in the regular season. Despite giving up 12 runs in 8 and 1/3 innings in his final two starts against the Mariners, Eovaldi struck at least five in both starts and tallied 11 strikeouts.

He went over this line in one of his two starts against the Rays this season when he punched out six in Tampa in June. Eovaldi also spent the last four and a half years in the AL East with the Red Sox after beginning 2018 with the Rays.

Since then, he has struck out four batters in 11 of 12 starts against his former team. With four to five innings today, I expect him to get four strikeouts once again.