Really the only thing we try to do is be as close to when opening lines are originally generated. 538 puts its projections out days ahead of time, so when a line opens, there's already a 538 win probability out based off the "expected" pitchers. Sometimes the win probabilities change, especially if pitchers change, but when pitchers change, lines change too and we typically don't play those games at all.
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Really the only thing we try to do is be as close to when opening lines are originally generated. 538 puts its projections out days ahead of time, so when a line opens, there's already a 538 win probability out based off the "expected" pitchers. Sometimes the win probabilities change, especially if pitchers change, but when pitchers change, lines change too and we typically don't play those games at all.
49 x -123 = 6027 & 51 x 100= 5100 delta 927/100 ROI -9%
Then i see your nte on SD, again love concept just need to tighten up when parameters get pulled from various sources
a system genius! Well done! It took me a few days, seriously.
But the issue is it seems we won't have a play as the line is moving away from us @ +$115 - we got close at Pinnacle by a buck ($101) but just short of pulling the trigger, now too much money coming in on CIN now, not sure of this is going to somehow turn around. Small card/thin float tonight so anything like a $15, $20 swing is still possible....
The pen is mightier than the pigs
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Quote Originally Posted by mtpjap690001:
Exactly @ 6:00AM EST, Cinncy was 49% @ (-123)
49 x -123 = 6027 & 51 x 100= 5100 delta 927/100 ROI -9%
Then i see your nte on SD, again love concept just need to tighten up when parameters get pulled from various sources
a system genius! Well done! It took me a few days, seriously.
But the issue is it seems we won't have a play as the line is moving away from us @ +$115 - we got close at Pinnacle by a buck ($101) but just short of pulling the trigger, now too much money coming in on CIN now, not sure of this is going to somehow turn around. Small card/thin float tonight so anything like a $15, $20 swing is still possible....
Hey Proudjagsfan many won't like the answers this system produces, but in the end they won't be able to resist the results as the math never lies.
Honestly, I was a straight A student in high school but only when I stopped taking math, where I was a C student. But even I can grasp the concepts of this system and appreciate its significance to betting. Well said, amigo.
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Quote Originally Posted by 23skidoo:
Hey Proudjagsfan many won't like the answers this system produces, but in the end they won't be able to resist the results as the math never lies.
Honestly, I was a straight A student in high school but only when I stopped taking math, where I was a C student. But even I can grasp the concepts of this system and appreciate its significance to betting. Well said, amigo.
so the one game you guys talk abt and say is a play or maybe a play or kind of a play or maybe not a play, or well, when its safe 38 secs before first pitch its a play, but wait, its not a play......is getting BOMBED 11-3 lol...cmon, wrap this up and lets come up with something else. Are you getting money from these guys to email you and pay for your magical spreadsheet?
Ok im sorry, i said I wouldnt dog this but its just too damn hard! :)
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so the one game you guys talk abt and say is a play or maybe a play or kind of a play or maybe not a play, or well, when its safe 38 secs before first pitch its a play, but wait, its not a play......is getting BOMBED 11-3 lol...cmon, wrap this up and lets come up with something else. Are you getting money from these guys to email you and pay for your magical spreadsheet?
Ok im sorry, i said I wouldnt dog this but its just too damn hard! :)
so the one game you guys talk abt and say is a play or maybe a play or kind of a play or maybe not a play, or well, when its safe 38 secs before first pitch its a play, but wait, its not a play......is getting BOMBED 11-3 lol...cmon, wrap this up and lets come up with something else. Are you getting money from these guys to email you and pay for your magical spreadsheet? Ok im sorry, i said I wouldnt dog this but its just too damn hard! :)
I love the sytem! They do the math for me...then I fade their picks and watch my money grow! ?? Any system that states if you lose money its your fault because you did the math and timing of betting wrong but if you win money its because he did the math for you...is a sytem that has FADE written all over it.
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Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega349:
so the one game you guys talk abt and say is a play or maybe a play or kind of a play or maybe not a play, or well, when its safe 38 secs before first pitch its a play, but wait, its not a play......is getting BOMBED 11-3 lol...cmon, wrap this up and lets come up with something else. Are you getting money from these guys to email you and pay for your magical spreadsheet? Ok im sorry, i said I wouldnt dog this but its just too damn hard! :)
I love the sytem! They do the math for me...then I fade their picks and watch my money grow! ?? Any system that states if you lose money its your fault because you did the math and timing of betting wrong but if you win money its because he did the math for you...is a sytem that has FADE written all over it.
lol so true man...although this was the hardest ive ever seen anyone promote a system and say it isnt his and he gets the picks from someone else. Wooofaaa! lol. Even if they win 3 in a row, this massively awesome system will be 6-4. Not exactly staggering. But hey, im a jerk, so be it
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lol so true man...although this was the hardest ive ever seen anyone promote a system and say it isnt his and he gets the picks from someone else. Wooofaaa! lol. Even if they win 3 in a row, this massively awesome system will be 6-4. Not exactly staggering. But hey, im a jerk, so be it
Glad you realize that. Cause nothing you said is accurate. Padres looked like it was going to be a play early but later on it never touched +109. It was clearly not going to be a play. And it's so obviously not my system, but keep believing what you want.
It's so funny Even when the leans lose you come here. (But of course you didn't say anything about the borderline lean yesterday Phillies, that won). Tell lies, make attacks, make accusations, all unfounded. You don't even read the thread, or you do looking only for ways to tell more lies. Because you don't see the spreadsheet, my buddy's NBA season, or even the threads before this one. Just because you lose. It's so obvious to me that I can type this all up in 5 seconds. Now I am done. Does it make you feel good to attack somebody without reason that you don't even know? How pathetic is your life?
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Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega349:
But hey, im a jerk, so be it
Glad you realize that. Cause nothing you said is accurate. Padres looked like it was going to be a play early but later on it never touched +109. It was clearly not going to be a play. And it's so obviously not my system, but keep believing what you want.
It's so funny Even when the leans lose you come here. (But of course you didn't say anything about the borderline lean yesterday Phillies, that won). Tell lies, make attacks, make accusations, all unfounded. You don't even read the thread, or you do looking only for ways to tell more lies. Because you don't see the spreadsheet, my buddy's NBA season, or even the threads before this one. Just because you lose. It's so obvious to me that I can type this all up in 5 seconds. Now I am done. Does it make you feel good to attack somebody without reason that you don't even know? How pathetic is your life?
When was it ever "safe"to LOCK IN the San Diego Padres bet?
Certainly not 20 minutes before first pitch when the Reds line and tickets were pouring in.
Does one put in a bet at an "safe" time and then buy out if the line is out of the projected range?
Lets see what tomorrow brings.
Rule of thumb is 10-15 dollar drop from the highest allowable closing number. Ideally one waits like an hour before the game with just such a drop. My guy tried to eliminate the game-time decisions. As you watch lines more often, you will grow more comfortable.
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Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane:
When was it ever "safe"to LOCK IN the San Diego Padres bet?
Certainly not 20 minutes before first pitch when the Reds line and tickets were pouring in.
Does one put in a bet at an "safe" time and then buy out if the line is out of the projected range?
Lets see what tomorrow brings.
Rule of thumb is 10-15 dollar drop from the highest allowable closing number. Ideally one waits like an hour before the game with just such a drop. My guy tried to eliminate the game-time decisions. As you watch lines more often, you will grow more comfortable.
Jags fan i have no idea how old you are or where you live or what you do, but I have to imagine, pleeeeease tell me you arent this senstive on a forum of strangers. Pleaseeeeee tell me that its a joke. Jags, I would LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVE for you and your buds to win a ton and Id haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaapilly and probably quietly ride along. I root for anyone who seems like a good person to win!! Trust me i do!!! But do not give me 37 diff reasons as to why the system is what it is, and why it works, but it doesnt work, but you shd bet when its in the SAFE zone lol but then dont because it hasnt hit a number. I mean its all sickening. Ive read ALLLLLLLLLLLLLLL of what you have written and you have written ALOT....and like evry other "system" that pops up here, I say the same. They are garbage and and mere fiction. I stand by that. I will always stand by that. I dont hate you or anyone else here. I stand by how I feel.
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Jags fan i have no idea how old you are or where you live or what you do, but I have to imagine, pleeeeease tell me you arent this senstive on a forum of strangers. Pleaseeeeee tell me that its a joke. Jags, I would LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVE for you and your buds to win a ton and Id haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaapilly and probably quietly ride along. I root for anyone who seems like a good person to win!! Trust me i do!!! But do not give me 37 diff reasons as to why the system is what it is, and why it works, but it doesnt work, but you shd bet when its in the SAFE zone lol but then dont because it hasnt hit a number. I mean its all sickening. Ive read ALLLLLLLLLLLLLLL of what you have written and you have written ALOT....and like evry other "system" that pops up here, I say the same. They are garbage and and mere fiction. I stand by that. I will always stand by that. I dont hate you or anyone else here. I stand by how I feel.
Yah. I get it. Line-monitoring aside, fundamental handicapping says you don't bet on Chacin on the road. And then you have the late handle steam on the Reds.
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Yah. I get it. Line-monitoring aside, fundamental handicapping says you don't bet on Chacin on the road. And then you have the late handle steam on the Reds.
Look, I personally did not bet on the Padres, nor did I have interest especially after reading cjm's write-up. You're talking to somebody who agrees with you and you know this if you read my write-ups, where I cap and talk about betting value. But this is my buddy's system on this thread and his concept is that the sharps know better than we do and the books win. He does not cap or care about value. He wants to side with the sharps and the books. As surely as they win, my buddy does too. Some guy who started on day 1 pm'ed me that he was 8-3 before the Jays game, some others posted 60% nba season. This is a proven method long-term. We are in to profit over the long run, but cannot win every day.
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Look, I personally did not bet on the Padres, nor did I have interest especially after reading cjm's write-up. You're talking to somebody who agrees with you and you know this if you read my write-ups, where I cap and talk about betting value. But this is my buddy's system on this thread and his concept is that the sharps know better than we do and the books win. He does not cap or care about value. He wants to side with the sharps and the books. As surely as they win, my buddy does too. Some guy who started on day 1 pm'ed me that he was 8-3 before the Jays game, some others posted 60% nba season. This is a proven method long-term. We are in to profit over the long run, but cannot win every day.
trust me thats what shocks me abt you. In football you leaned on others for lots of help. In baseball you wrote 5 paragraph writeups abt why you loved a game and did a good job at looking at alllll sides. And then you start throwing this around for your buddy. I just dont get it. If the guy really wants to push it then let him do it. And i hear ya and saw the 8-3 record and I dont buy it for a sec, sorry. Also saw your boy 1515 throw around 30-10 lol cmon. That acts been done a lot. And now its barely 500 or below. Anyway, i know youre a good guy. Wish you the best. And that i mean
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trust me thats what shocks me abt you. In football you leaned on others for lots of help. In baseball you wrote 5 paragraph writeups abt why you loved a game and did a good job at looking at alllll sides. And then you start throwing this around for your buddy. I just dont get it. If the guy really wants to push it then let him do it. And i hear ya and saw the 8-3 record and I dont buy it for a sec, sorry. Also saw your boy 1515 throw around 30-10 lol cmon. That acts been done a lot. And now its barely 500 or below. Anyway, i know youre a good guy. Wish you the best. And that i mean
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Even when the leans lose you come here. (But of course you didn't say anything about the borderline lean yesterday Phillies, that won). Tell lies, make attacks, make accusations, all unfounded. You don't even read the thread, or you do looking only for ways to tell more lies. Because you don't see the spreadsheet, my buddy's NBA season, or even the threads before this one. Just because you lose. It's so obvious to me that I can type this all up in 5 seconds. Now I am done. Does it make you feel good to attack somebody without reason that you don't even know? How pathetic is your life? 
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