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If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
4.01.2013, 3-5-2, -10.19 Units, -20.4% ROI
YTD - Same
9 Innings – 4/02/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays today are 5 units, per my strategy, 5 inning plays after the lines open
Orioles (+158) (Hammel / Price)
Too much gap between the probability and payback. Should Price be favored? Sure, but not to the point he needs a 63% win probability to pay back 60 cents profit on the dollar of risk. Hammel is certainly above average and his offense is much better. At +158 he needs only a 39% probability of winning and an above average pitcher with the superior offense almost always has that.
Mariners (+130) (Iwakuma / Parker)
I was not joking when I picked the Mariners to finish 2nd in the very tough AL West and a fine performance by Hernandez gets them off to a nice start. 5 hits and 2 earned runs may not look impressive for the offense, but remember they were facing a tough starter in the lowest scoring park in all of MLB. Iwakuma flew under the radar for much of last year but until Mike Trout went berserk he was a legit ROY candidate and I see no reason why he can’t go toe to toe with Parker while his superior offense gets him a few to work with.
BOL
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