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Money Ball 5-24-2015

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Posted: #26
GL
 
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Posted: #27
Thanks
 
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Key - Can you explain the reasoning behind not playing the Giants today? They have a better probability of winning this game than any of the first 3 games of this series (and you played the first 2 games with success), specially taking into account that they have rested key players yesterday (only Crawford out today).
 
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Posted: #30
Be prepared for the leeches who have just caught on during this hot steak n will raise hell if you go on cold streak. 4k of profit can withstand a little down spell.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by TheActuary:

Key - Can you explain the reasoning behind not playing the Giants today? They have a better probability of winning this game than any of the first 3 games of this series (and you played the first 2 games with success), specially taking into account that they have rested key players yesterday (only Crawford out today).

And the reason I ask this is to see if you have a different view than me on this game, and if yes, to understand why in order to improve my capping ability.

Thanks
 
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Posted: #32
Great start to the season bud, keep the good times going and the money flowing
 
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Posted: #33
I think Hudson has slipped a little more than most folks suspect and Bettis is showing promise. Just like my streak the Giants have to run out of steam at some and this is a vulnerable spot. Not playing against them but I see today's game as a toss up. Even though I believe the Rockies are the worst team in MLB, they won't lose them all. Just neutral on the game and concerned about Hudson. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #34
thanks for your insight. Yes Bettis is having a fine year. The Rockies will be in a better position to win games next series vs the Phillies :)
 
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Posted: #35

Key Element.......great cappin and forum member interaction. Saw that you attend church services on Sun, and was wonderin if you could help an old alter boy.

How does one determine ROI or ROR? Is it win% - (loss % / price) or is it amnt won / amnt invested?

thanks....the gadfly

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by TheGadfly3:

Key Element.......great cappin and forum member interaction. Saw that you attend church services on Sun, and was wonderin if you could help an old alter boy.

How does one determine ROI or ROR? Is it win% - (loss % / price) or is it amnt won / amnt invested?

thanks....the gadfly

Yeah, sure, anything for an old altar boy like myself

Return on Risk (Investment) is easy, but important to track.It is simply profit as a percent of risk.
If you wagered $120 to make $100 on a -120 favorite you made 83.33 cents per dollar of risk i.e.100/120 so the return on risk is .8333
If you took the opposite side of the same game at +110 you made 110 cents per dollar of risk 110/100
profit/risk = RoR
This is the most honest way to look at the results of investing on the outcomes of sports bets, business ventures or anything else. It is the truth, it cannot lie.
Note that no matter what your bet size if you win on a -120 favorite the result is always .8333 and the +110 dog is always +1.1
Try the same with any odds or any wager size and you know exactly what your "investments" are paying.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #37
Former alter boy. 1962-1969.  Those were the days when you had to learn all the prayers in Latin. 
 
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Posted: #38
Key thanks for the insight.  Hope I can learn somethimg.  First year betting.
 
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Think I got the concept now, Key. Thanks much for the response.

If the nuns and brothers knew I was bettin now, I'd be in beeeg trouble. lol

i.e. profit = $50.......amnt invested = 300, then RoR = 50/300...16%

Eurakea !

.......the GadFly

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by cjm2008:

Former alter boy. 1962-1969.  Those were the days when you had to learn all the prayers in Latin. 
Right, and now that we have mostly forgotten our Latin, some of it is coming back. Some day I will tell you guys the story of the young priest that came to our parish right out of the seminary. His grandfather or granduncle was a Mafia "Don" and shared the same him. Everyone new his ancestry, but he handled it beautifully. God bless him. As for the nuns in our parochial school, they thought most of us lower middle class (not real low) Irish hooligans were going to Hades anyway.



Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by TheGadfly3:

Think I got the concept now, Key. Thanks much for the response.

If the nuns and brothers knew I was bettin now, I'd be in beeeg trouble. lol

i.e. profit = $50.......amnt invested = 300, then RoR = 50/300...16%

Eurakea !

.......the GadFly

That's right, and most guys would tell you never bet a -625 favorite, but that is not necessarily true either. How much of your other investment money in earning 16% in a few ours? Sometimes (rarely) I come up with a -280 or -290 play, way out of character for me, but if the probability warrants it, why not? The trick then is not to overlay the bet, do not "add the juice" just play it for your standard wager amount and accept the lesser profit. "adding the juice" to favorites is a dangerous way to play. BOL 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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