5-05
$365 Giants -122, (Lincecum/Williams) W
$365 Athletics +105, (Kazmir/Miley) L
$365 Rays +100, (Odorizzi/Happ) W
YTD 68-43, +$7,604.01 (+31.37% RoR)
5-06
$380 Rangers +155, (Rodriguez/Ventura)
Rangers: The value here is enormous, but it is not a “value” play. I compute the Rangers to have a 56% chance of winning this game, in other words, what we have here is a false favorite. The reasons are numerous. The Royals rocketed out of the gate at 8-0 or whatever it was and have received plenty of respect for both that and their World Series appearance. But as I have said many times the whole season is a constantly changing and evolving thing. Players and teams get hot and cold, streak in both directions, and you don’t know diddly until it all sorts itself out. Right now Ventura and the Royals are a completely average team and the Rangers are a very good one, Wandy is up, Yordano down, as are both offenses. The Royals are 3-8 last 11 versus lefty and producing just 3.78 earned offensive runs per 9. The Rangers are 10-1 last 11 versus righty and producing 5.62 offensive earned runs per 9 over that span. Like I said, the value is enormous and we seldom see that with a false favorite.
More later but I have to get ready to go out for brunch with some of the folks we are visiting with.
BOL
Good luck, bro
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