Tigers: Play to -182. Did the WS suddenly become a threat to lefties? A threat to a top gun lefty? That is really stretching the imagination. Now, someone on the board is bound to call WS-Samardzija a darn good value, but remember, the value lies with the winner and the loser presents 0 value. What they have right now is only perceived value.
I will be back with more but time is getting short.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
6-27
$365 Twins +124, (Gibson/Garza) W
$365 Tigers -147, (Danks/Ryan) Cancelled
YTD 87-61, +$8,449.21 (+21.58% RoR)
6-28
$382 Tigers-159, (Samardzija/Price)
BOL
Tigers: Play to -182. Did the WS suddenly become a threat to lefties? A threat to a top gun lefty? That is really stretching the imagination. Now, someone on the board is bound to call WS-Samardzija a darn good value, but remember, the value lies with the winner and the loser presents 0 value. What they have right now is only perceived value.
I will be back with more but time is getting short.
While I realize you might cite lack of value in the current line of about -240 couldn't you state the same reasoning for taking SF today against a paltry Colorado team that can't hit lefties and is throwing out Kendrick (whom i believe you enjoy fading) as you did for taking Detroit?
0
While I realize you might cite lack of value in the current line of about -240 couldn't you state the same reasoning for taking SF today against a paltry Colorado team that can't hit lefties and is throwing out Kendrick (whom i believe you enjoy fading) as you did for taking Detroit?
Tigers: Play to -182. Did the WS suddenly become a threat to lefties? A threat to a top gun lefty? That is really stretching the imagination. Now, someone on the board is bound to call WS-Samardzija a darn good value, but remember, the value lies with the winner and the loser presents 0 value. What they have right now is only perceived value.
Giants: Play to -342. How in the world can bettors continue to overvalue Kyle Kendrick? You know what being happened here? The same thing that always happens when a number looks “too high”. People perceive value in the other side, without any computation of where the line should be, based on the true probability of the outcome. In my computation 80% of the bettors should be on Bumgarner and should have driven the line to -380, but that ain’t never going to happen, so someone is going to call the Giants the “public” side and take the Rockies based on that false perception. As far as I am concerned since the Giants stand an 80% chance of winning this game anything less than 80% of the public being on them makes them the “smart money” side. Go throw that at a few people. Need a kicker? The Rockies are almost as pathetic at hitting lefties as are the White Sox. They are just 3-10 so far and scoring a miserable 2.9 earned runs per 9 and have none of the wins with Kendrick on the hill (0-4). Your money, your choice, but I think I know where the “value” lies.
Dbax: Play to -120. If you have the better pitcher and offense why not grab the bonus bucks?
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Final Card
6-28
$382 Tigers-159, (Samardzija/Price)
$382 Giants -225, (Kendrick/Bumgarner)
$382 Diamondbacks +108, (Anderson/Despaigne)
BOL
Tigers: Play to -182. Did the WS suddenly become a threat to lefties? A threat to a top gun lefty? That is really stretching the imagination. Now, someone on the board is bound to call WS-Samardzija a darn good value, but remember, the value lies with the winner and the loser presents 0 value. What they have right now is only perceived value.
Giants: Play to -342. How in the world can bettors continue to overvalue Kyle Kendrick? You know what being happened here? The same thing that always happens when a number looks “too high”. People perceive value in the other side, without any computation of where the line should be, based on the true probability of the outcome. In my computation 80% of the bettors should be on Bumgarner and should have driven the line to -380, but that ain’t never going to happen, so someone is going to call the Giants the “public” side and take the Rockies based on that false perception. As far as I am concerned since the Giants stand an 80% chance of winning this game anything less than 80% of the public being on them makes them the “smart money” side. Go throw that at a few people. Need a kicker? The Rockies are almost as pathetic at hitting lefties as are the White Sox. They are just 3-10 so far and scoring a miserable 2.9 earned runs per 9 and have none of the wins with Kendrick on the hill (0-4). Your money, your choice, but I think I know where the “value” lies.
Dbax: Play to -120. If you have the better pitcher and offense why not grab the bonus bucks?
While I realize you might cite lack of value in the current line of about -240 couldn't you state the same reasoning for taking SF today against a paltry Colorado team that can't hit lefties and is throwing out Kendrick (whom i believe you enjoy fading) as you did for taking Detroit?
I posted the final card before seeing your post. I think I covered it fairly well.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Quote Originally Posted by LAGameofInches:
While I realize you might cite lack of value in the current line of about -240 couldn't you state the same reasoning for taking SF today against a paltry Colorado team that can't hit lefties and is throwing out Kendrick (whom i believe you enjoy fading) as you did for taking Detroit?
I posted the final card before seeing your post. I think I covered it fairly well.
Appreciate your time and suggestions each day. Always feel better when we are both on the same side of a game. I spend about 2 hours each morning handicapping. I enjoy that part of it just as much as winning. ha. Well, almost. Cheers and BOL today, Key.
0
Appreciate your time and suggestions each day. Always feel better when we are both on the same side of a game. I spend about 2 hours each morning handicapping. I enjoy that part of it just as much as winning. ha. Well, almost. Cheers and BOL today, Key.
Tigers: Play to -182. Did the WS suddenly become a threat to lefties? A threat to a top gun lefty? That is really stretching the imagination. Now, someone on the board is bound to call WS-Samardzija a darn good value, but remember, the value lies with the winner and the loser presents 0 value. What they have right now is only perceived value.
Giants: Play to -342. How in the world can bettors continue to overvalue Kyle Kendrick? You know what being happened here? The same thing that always happens when a number looks “too high”. People perceive value in the other side, without any computation of where the line should be, based on the true probability of the outcome. In my computation 80% of the bettors should be on Bumgarner and should have driven the line to -380, but that ain’t never going to happen, so someone is going to call the Giants the “public” side and take the Rockies based on that false perception. As far as I am concerned since the Giants stand an 80% chance of winning this game anything less than 80% of the public being on them makes them the “smart money” side. Go throw that at a few people. Need a kicker? The Rockies are almost as pathetic at hitting lefties as are the White Sox. They are just 3-10 so far and scoring a miserable 2.9 earned runs per 9 and have none of the wins with Kendrick on the hill (0-4). Your money, your choice, but I think I know where the “value” lies.
Dbax: Play to -120. If you have the better pitcher and offense why not grab the bonus bucks?
Dbax also avoiding the sweep with a victory here. BOL
0
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Final Card
6-28
$382 Tigers-159, (Samardzija/Price)
$382 Giants -225, (Kendrick/Bumgarner)
$382 Diamondbacks +108, (Anderson/Despaigne)
BOL
Tigers: Play to -182. Did the WS suddenly become a threat to lefties? A threat to a top gun lefty? That is really stretching the imagination. Now, someone on the board is bound to call WS-Samardzija a darn good value, but remember, the value lies with the winner and the loser presents 0 value. What they have right now is only perceived value.
Giants: Play to -342. How in the world can bettors continue to overvalue Kyle Kendrick? You know what being happened here? The same thing that always happens when a number looks “too high”. People perceive value in the other side, without any computation of where the line should be, based on the true probability of the outcome. In my computation 80% of the bettors should be on Bumgarner and should have driven the line to -380, but that ain’t never going to happen, so someone is going to call the Giants the “public” side and take the Rockies based on that false perception. As far as I am concerned since the Giants stand an 80% chance of winning this game anything less than 80% of the public being on them makes them the “smart money” side. Go throw that at a few people. Need a kicker? The Rockies are almost as pathetic at hitting lefties as are the White Sox. They are just 3-10 so far and scoring a miserable 2.9 earned runs per 9 and have none of the wins with Kendrick on the hill (0-4). Your money, your choice, but I think I know where the “value” lies.
Dbax: Play to -120. If you have the better pitcher and offense why not grab the bonus bucks?
Dbax also avoiding the sweep with a victory here. BOL
Key if u think there is 80% of chance for the Giants to win today
Why not play the -1 line? I understand that u dont play the -1.5 line on home teams since u only get 24 outs insted of 27 (dont get me wrong i complete agreed with u) but at this case u gonna be playing the -1 and even if they win by just one u wont lose any money. The -1 line at this case i think is worth it considering how much juice u paying at the money line . By the way odds on the -1 line is at -162
0
Key if u think there is 80% of chance for the Giants to win today
Why not play the -1 line? I understand that u dont play the -1.5 line on home teams since u only get 24 outs insted of 27 (dont get me wrong i complete agreed with u) but at this case u gonna be playing the -1 and even if they win by just one u wont lose any money. The -1 line at this case i think is worth it considering how much juice u paying at the money line . By the way odds on the -1 line is at -162
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Best of luck to you and all of us tailing you! 
2 more plays. 
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