Money Ball 6-30-2014

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3-30 Opening Bankroll $10,000.00 All wagers are FLAT, do not add the juice

6-25, 1-4-1, -772.41

Reds, F5, -126 (Latos / Jackson) Push

Blue Jays, F5, -108 (Kuroda / Hutchison) L

Mets, F5, -101 (Mills / Wheeler) L

Tigers, F5, -146 (Sanchez / Saunders) W

Astros, F5, +118 (Wood / McHugh) L

Astros, FG, +123 (Wood / McHugh) L

6-30 Bankroll $10,872.27 (RoR +1.9%) YTD 96-91-22 (51.3%)

All plays today are $217.00

Cubs, F5, +110 (Arrieta / Peavy)

Angels, F5, -148 (Richards / Noesi)

BOL

OK, knock it off with the wisecracks about the state of my computer and I solemnly promise next time I will hire a geek, or one of my grandchildren, to take care of it. Probably not a bad idea anyway since that much frustration is probably not good for my heart or blood pressure and I just know you boys are not ready to part with me yet. Well, yeah, some guys are, but none that amount to anything around here.  

Be back shortly with write ups and tomorrow I will have the colorization thing straightened out.

Cubs: One thing I figured out already today is I have to resume posting very early, as soon as 5 inning lines are available. There is no good reason the Cubs should have opened so high (+135, moving to +142) and a lot of people have figured that out. Arrieta over Peavy alone should have made the Cubs a short favorite, especially considering they are currently hitting and posting runs much better than the Red Sox.

Angels: OK, the first thing to dispense with is that neither Weaver or Wilson is the current top gun of the Angels rotation. Richards is the best thing they have going for them at 11-5 h2h and 13-3 in quality starts. Noesi is not even in the discussion at 5-6 and 3-8. The line value of Ricjards versus Noesi I compute at 73 cents (-173) before we consider anything else. The offenses are not so far apart but are the WS more likely to hit Richards than the Angels are to hit Noesi? Not likely, and we only need a one run lead after 5.

Under valued versus over valued is what all this is all about and value is not necessarily with either the dog or favorite, just the team with the greatest probability versus the quoted odds.

BOL

These picks seem very cautious and conservative.We'll see the results tonight.Whenever the Cubs look like a good pick,they show you different.I would've thought you'd take Sanchez against the best team in MLB before hoping the Cubs can win on the road.

GL