Money Ball 6.01

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If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

5.31.2013, 2-0-2, +14.51 Units, +148.1% ROI

YTD – 117-124-24, +27.58 Units, +2.31% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

Today’s comment: If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. 4-0-2 last 6 five inning plays say “stay with it boy”. Today’s lines look very accurate to me when the risk-reward is computed. No matter how much I like a game or team if the reward is not a positive expectation I am just not going to play it. Only two for today even though we have a 16 game card.

Reds F5 (+117) (Leake / Liriano)

I think (according to my numbers) Leake is a little undervalued here. Liriano has looked good so far, no doubt about that, but the Tigers got to him and they were not a divisional opponent that had previously dropped three straight his club. The Reds may well be on a mission here and they have better firepower for a lefty than the Brewers or Cubs put out there. Meanwhile the Pirates are a very weak hitting team and their spikes are not exactly tearing up home plate. An underdog price with Leake and the Reds easily overcomes Liriano at home with no offense.  

Padres F5 (+117) (Buehrle / Erlin)

The Jays blew an opportunity last night and don’t get the same chance today. I wish I had more book on Erlin but won’t hold two relief appearances at Wrigley against him. His projections look good and that is what I have to roll with. Backing Erlin is not as hard considering Buehrle is not what he used to be and the Jays have a lesser offensive prospectus versus lefties than do the Padres. Public perception drives the market and most folks think the Jays are a much better team than the Padres and worthy of laying juice on the road. I disagree.

BOL

Alert - Some lines are moving favorably. I may have one or more picks later.  

That is a good article with a couple things there I hadn't seen or credited. I agree with the author that Petco is an ideal park for him and if he stays in the bigs he actually needs to stay in the left coast parks. Petco, coupled with the Jays struggles with lefties should be significant tonight. He was OK in the Fall League I think but Phoenix is much more of a hitters town than San Diego. Thanx.