Money Ball 6.04

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If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

6.03.2013, 0-1, -5 Units, -100% ROI

YTD – 121-125-24, +49.31 Units, +4.05% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

Today’s comment: Breaks are what they are. Sometimes you get them, sometimes you don’t. Kendrick won that pitching duel with Koehler last night but partially because he contributed offensively himself. When handicapping there is just no way to allow for a pitcher getting the first triple of his career and driving in a run, then becoming an rbi stat himself. S**t happens, we persevere, we push on.

Marlins F5 (+155) (Nolasco / Pettibone)

Unless Pettibone triples (lol) Nolasco is the better side of this matchup. Per my system I have Nolasco with 7 quality starts in 12 appearances, versus 5 of 8 for Pettibone, but Pettibone has not faced the quality of opposition that Nolasco has and the offensive potential of either team is remarkably close tonight. All of that says that the Phillies probably should be favored, but not by an amount that requires a 63% win probability before you start looking at a positive EV.

Indians F5 (+130) (Kazmir / Phelps)

A couple months ago I would have sworn the day would never come when I would pass on Masterson and take Kazmir the next, but that is just an example of what a funny game baseball really is. In my way of doing things there is no “fade this pitcher” or “fade this team”, nor is there very often a chance to “ride” either a pitcher or team. Today is the only future I am wagering on and the probability of winning performance today is the only probability that matters. I don’t have Kazmir highly rated, but he is just as good as Phelps and the Indians hit righties far better than the Yankees hit lefties. There is also the aspect of Yankee Stadium (old and new both) slightly favoring left handed pitchers and tonight’s slight wind across from left to right should or could enhance that. ‘nuff said.

Diamondbacks F5 (+140) (Skaggs / Wacha)

OK, it looks like the Cardinals are laying waste to everything in sight, right? To an extent that is true, and what is true is what makes the Cardinals the best team in MLB at this point and could give us a runaway winner in the regular season and playoffs if it continues. There are two aspects that playoff qualifiers almost always share. Win on the road, and beat right handed pitching. Obviously at 20-9 winning on the road is no problem, nor is 31-13 versus righty a problem, but a hot newcomer lefty is a different challenge. The Cardinals are only 7-6 versus lefty overall and 6-6-1 in the 5 inning game. According to my formula the Cardinals offensive rating drops from righty to lefty 38 / 32.4, and their offensive era drops from 6.3 per nine innings to 3.5. That is a huge difference when you also consider the fact the Cardinals have never faced Tyler Skaggs.   

BTW, why be pissed off at any team? It just tends to warp your judgment in the future. It is gambling and we do not win them all and we accept that going in.