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Money Ball 6.04

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by nuggetsfan:

Any thoughts on Matt Moore vs the Tigers?
I think the Tigers are the better side but there is not much value either way. I made the Tigers -134 and the line has wiggled but moved enough to add value to either side. I know Moore is a winner but many things have fallen into place for him. His skill sets are not really high, but the Tigers offensive potential is.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by DAVIDN:

Why are you a genius?
There are many dissenting opinions on that. My wife, children, grandchildren and most of the Covers Community to name a few, but you are also entitled to your opinion, which I trust explicitly!

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #28
================......
 
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Posted: #29
good luck key 
 
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Posted: #30
GL tonight Key
 
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Posted: #31
Have been reading your posts for several weeks now Key, you are head and shoulders above 98% of the testosterone driven drivel posted by the unwashed masses.  THANK YOU!  

Your willingness to share is greatly appreciated.
 
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Posted: #32
What kept you away from Pittsburgh today?  Locke has been so good, his only bad start was against Atlanta, but I think he comes through tonight. I mean these two teams are even to me and he is +160ish.  Thanks Key always a good read.
 
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Posted: #33
JackSmack - I just can't back the Pirates offense. It is better versus lefty but the competition has been a little weak at 67.3 versus Minor at 73.9. Pirates are only 3-7-1 in 5 innings versus that schedule. Locke could chuck a heck of a game and still lose, happens to somebody every night. I had Masterson, Chatwood and Burnett rated higher yesterday than Locke is tonight and all three lost to lesser rated starters due to lack of offense.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #34
BOL Bud
 
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Posted: #35
What site do you use to find most of your stats?

Like how teams fair against a L/H pitcher for the year?

-Thanks
 
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Posted: #36

Miami Marlins 16-42 (28%) @ Philadelphia Phillies 28-30 (48%)

R. Nolasco, my #51 ranked SP, starting for Miami Marlins, has a FIP of 3.66 (#52 in MLB), xFIP of 3.79 (#56 in MLB), tERA of 4.22 (#59 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.81 (#55 in MLB), with a BABIP of .277, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.03. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.39, with a WHIP of 1.15, and opponent BA of .239. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 36% for a 1.19 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.

J. Pettibone, my #128 ranked SP, starting for Philadelphia Phillies, has a FIP of 4.58 (#118 in MLB), xFIP of 4.53 (#123 in MLB), tERA of 5.3 (#127 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.52 (#119 in MLB), with a BABIP of .308, LOB% of 81%, and E-F of -0.94. He has a K/BB ratio of 2, with a WHIP of 1.43, and opponent BA of .277. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 35% for a 1.21 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

Miami Marlins have the #23 bullpen, #30 offense (#30 vs Righties / #28 vs Lefties), and are rated #21 in fielding. They have a road record of 06-22 (21%), ranked #30 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Philadelphia Phillies have the #28 bullpen, #24 offense (#27 vs Righties / #7 vs Lefties), and are rated #20 in fielding. They have a home record of 14-15 (48%), ranked #21 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.

Odds: MIA +146 (41%) PHI -159 (61%) O/U = 7.5

Lean: MIA

 
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Posted: #37

Arizona Diamondbacks 32-25 (56%) @ St. Louis Cardinals 38-19 (67%)

T. Skaggs, my #2 ranked SP, starting for Arizona Diamondbacks, has a FIP of 1.57 (#2 in MLB), xFIP of 2.04 (#1 in MLB), tERA of 3.04 (#11 in MLB), and SIERA of 2.68 (#6 in MLB), with a BABIP of .25, LOB% of 100%, and E-F of -1.57. He has a K/BB ratio of 3, with a WHIP of 1, and opponent BA of .143. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 33%, GB%: 50%, FB%: 17% for a 3 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 0%.

M. Wacha, my #1 ranked SP, starting for St. Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 1.35 (#1 in MLB), xFIP of 2.57 (#5 in MLB), tERA of 0.41 (#1 in MLB), and SIERA of 2.29 (#1 in MLB), with a BABIP of .118, LOB% of 50%, and E-F of -0.07. He has a K/BB ratio of 6, with a WHIP of 0.29, and opponent BA of .087. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 6%, GB%: 59%, FB%: 35% for a 1.67 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 0%.

Arizona Diamondbacks have the #2 bullpen, #19 offense (#13 vs Righties / #24 vs Lefties), and are rated #2 in fielding. They have a road record of 16-13 (55%), ranked #6 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

St. Louis Cardinals have the #12 bullpen, #13 offense (#11 vs Righties / #26 vs Lefties), and are rated #30 in fielding. They have a home record of 18-10 (64%), ranked #7 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Odds: ARI +139 (42%) STL -151 (60%) O/U = 8

Lean: UNDER

 
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Posted: #38

Cleveland Indians 30-27 (53%) @ New York Yankees 32-25 (56%)

S. Kazmir, my #84 ranked SP, starting for Cleveland Indians, has a FIP of 4.55 (#116 in MLB), xFIP of 3.96 (#75 in MLB), tERA of 4.86 (#110 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.79 (#52 in MLB), with a BABIP of .362, LOB% of 77%, and E-F of 0.58. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.73, with a WHIP of 1.59, and opponent BA of .299. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 39%, FB%: 38% for a 1.02 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 15%.

D. Phelps, my #59 ranked SP, starting for New York Yankees, has a FIP of 3.43 (#37 in MLB), xFIP of 4.19 (#92 in MLB), tERA of 3.79 (#37 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.1 (#87 in MLB), with a BABIP of .302, LOB% of 66%, and E-F of 0.89. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.33, with a WHIP of 1.29, and opponent BA of .246. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 36% for a 1.18 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

Cleveland Indians have the #20 bullpen, #1 offense (#5 vs Righties / #1 vs Lefties), and are rated #5 in fielding. They have a road record of 12-15 (44%), ranked #14 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.

New York Yankees have the #1 bullpen, #24 offense (#19 vs Righties / #27 vs Lefties), and are rated #14 in fielding. They have a home record of 17-13 (57%), ranked #15 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Odds: CLE +130 (43%) NYY -141 (59%) O/U = 9

Lean: CLE

 
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Posted: #39
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by TurnstoneMoney:

What site do you use to find most of your stats?

Like how teams fair against a L/H pitcher for the year?

-Thanks
I use MLB...com for stats, but the computation of probability is entirely my own. Anyone can read stats, the tricky part is understanding what effect they have on probability and properly utilizing it.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #41
RLeith35 - Whose work are you copying and pasting in my thread now, like you did with mine at statfox? I don't care but give credit to the guy that produced it. The way you have posted it makes it look like you produced that sabrmetric work and we know you didn't. So, whose work is it?
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #42
I have the same teams, but for the full game.  I will have to add the 1st 5 to my plays because I would hate for them to be winning after 5 to get screwed at the end.  BTW, do you like any of those teams for the FG?  Good luck tonight! 
 
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Posted: #43
that is Bodio's (now Vegas Butcher) work that was copied and pasted....  THX for your efforts Key!
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

RLeith35 - Whose work are you copying and pasting in my thread now, like you did with mine at statfox? I don't care but give credit to the guy that produced it. The way you have posted it makes it look like you produced that sabrmetric work and we know you didn't. So, whose work is it?

I Sent u a freind Request, after u accept it, i will send u a PM and

tell u where i got the information u are asking about, their are some things better not put up on the open forum!!

 
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Posted: #45

Quote Originally Posted by bookiekilla:

I have the same teams, but for the full game.  I will have to add the 1st 5 to my plays because I would hate for them to be winning after 5 to get screwed at the end.  BTW, do you like any of those teams for the FG?  Good luck tonight! 
I was playing both and hit a little slump with the FG, but that will be back. I have no objection to anyone using the plays FG because if you have a lead when the starters exit your bullpen should be able to hold it. FG will be back.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by RLeith35:

I Sent u a freind Request, after u accept it, i will send u a PM and

tell u where i got the information u are asking about, their are some things better not put up on the open forum!!

OK, done
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #47

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

OK, done

I don't see you in my freinds boxes? What am i doing wrong? Maybe u should send me a friend request.

 
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Posted: #48
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by RLeith35:

I don't see you in my freinds boxes? What am i doing wrong? Maybe u should send me a friend request.

Check your regular email account. You probably have one from Covers. Click on pending requests in the email and it takes you right to it.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
 
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GL  
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