If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
6.09.2013, 1-0, +4.17 Units, +83.33% ROI
YTD – 128-132-26, +53.68 Units, +4.16% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: Sometimes after a big disappointment it is better to just back off, put a win on the books and then move forward. That’s what I did yesterday and now I feel rejuvenated. Let’s move on.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
6.09.2013, 1-0, +4.17 Units, +83.33% ROI
YTD – 128-132-26, +53.68 Units, +4.16% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: Sometimes after a big disappointment it is better to just back off, put a win on the books and then move forward. That’s what I did yesterday and now I feel rejuvenated. Let’s move on.
No matter how bad the competition there is no way Gallardo and mates should be road favorites over Nolasco, even with a bad Marlins offense behind him. This road favorite is 6-7-2 with an oera of just 3.7 per 9 their last 15 and that was versus a 67.4 schedule with Nolasco checking in at 70.7. With Gallardo and mates at 5-8 overall and 2-3 on the road, why would anyone play for a negative ROI when positive EV is probable with Nolasco? I have Gallardo with only 5 quality starts in my system versus Nolasco at 8 of 13.
Tiger F5 RL (-.5, +100) (Fister / Guthrie)
Sometimes a man’s got to do what a man’s got to do, in the immortal words of John Wayne. There is simply way too much difference in starters and teams to see this any other way. I suppose someone out there doesn’t like Fister, but what is not to like? Fister and mates are 6-6 overall and 1-1 on the road, but Fister is 7-5 in the quality start ratings and his team overall is 10-2-3 last 15 versus righty with an oera of 5.8 per 9. The Royals are showing signs of life but are doing it in the Pirates fashion, late scoring versus bullpens. Their last 15 versus righty they are just 4-9-2 with an oera of 1.5 per 9. To add insult to injury the 4-9-2 is versus a strength of schedule rating of just 65.2 (pathetically weak) versus Fister’s above average ranking of 70.6. No comparison, lay the wood.
Braves F5 RL (-.5, +105) (Teheran / Marquis)
The Braves have caught fire again and hold every advantage available the F5 tonight. They come to town off two straight wins at the Dodgers to split that series while the Padres managed a 2-2 split at the Rockies, which looks impressive only if you have the Rockies over valued. I don’t, and beating Chacin with Cashner and Francis with Stults is fine, but that burns up two of your best starters right there. Teheran-Marquis is a much tougher match and after seven straight games on the road the Padres may not be fully into it the first night home anyway.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Marlins F5 (+111) (Gallardo / Nolasco)
No matter how bad the competition there is no way Gallardo and mates should be road favorites over Nolasco, even with a bad Marlins offense behind him. This road favorite is 6-7-2 with an oera of just 3.7 per 9 their last 15 and that was versus a 67.4 schedule with Nolasco checking in at 70.7. With Gallardo and mates at 5-8 overall and 2-3 on the road, why would anyone play for a negative ROI when positive EV is probable with Nolasco? I have Gallardo with only 5 quality starts in my system versus Nolasco at 8 of 13.
Tiger F5 RL (-.5, +100) (Fister / Guthrie)
Sometimes a man’s got to do what a man’s got to do, in the immortal words of John Wayne. There is simply way too much difference in starters and teams to see this any other way. I suppose someone out there doesn’t like Fister, but what is not to like? Fister and mates are 6-6 overall and 1-1 on the road, but Fister is 7-5 in the quality start ratings and his team overall is 10-2-3 last 15 versus righty with an oera of 5.8 per 9. The Royals are showing signs of life but are doing it in the Pirates fashion, late scoring versus bullpens. Their last 15 versus righty they are just 4-9-2 with an oera of 1.5 per 9. To add insult to injury the 4-9-2 is versus a strength of schedule rating of just 65.2 (pathetically weak) versus Fister’s above average ranking of 70.6. No comparison, lay the wood.
Braves F5 RL (-.5, +105) (Teheran / Marquis)
The Braves have caught fire again and hold every advantage available the F5 tonight. They come to town off two straight wins at the Dodgers to split that series while the Padres managed a 2-2 split at the Rockies, which looks impressive only if you have the Rockies over valued. I don’t, and beating Chacin with Cashner and Francis with Stults is fine, but that burns up two of your best starters right there. Teheran-Marquis is a much tougher match and after seven straight games on the road the Padres may not be fully into it the first night home anyway.
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
6.09.2013, 1-0, +4.17 Units, +83.33% ROI
YTD – 128-132-26, +53.68 Units, +4.16% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: Sometimes after a big disappointment it is better to just back off, put a win on the books and then move forward. That’s what I did yesterday and now I feel rejuvenated. Let’s move on.
The storm arrived a day later and quite a storm it was.
St Louis is 19-1 off a loss its last 20. I love your humor--keep up the great work you do. thanks
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
6.09.2013, 1-0, +4.17 Units, +83.33% ROI
YTD – 128-132-26, +53.68 Units, +4.16% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: Sometimes after a big disappointment it is better to just back off, put a win on the books and then move forward. That’s what I did yesterday and now I feel rejuvenated. Let’s move on.
The storm arrived a day later and quite a storm it was.
St Louis is 19-1 off a loss its last 20. I love your humor--keep up the great work you do. thanks
Diamondbacks-Dodgers F5 Over 3 (+100) (Miley / Kershaw)
I can’t believe a flat 3 at +100. Anything over 2 and we get at least a push. Miley is not having a stellar season with only 4 of 12 starts falling in my quality range. Kershaw we know, or could almost guess, is much better at 10 of 13, but still, the guy is not perfect by any means. With both teams coming off 0-2 weekend finishes at home I think we can expect full attention and aggressiveness tonight. The Dbacks do not soil their diapers at the mention of Kershaw and the Dodgers have dropped his last 5 starts versus the Dbacks. No umpire information available yet but a forecast of a 9 mph wind out to right can’t hurt anything either.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Add
Diamondbacks-Dodgers F5 Over 3 (+100) (Miley / Kershaw)
I can’t believe a flat 3 at +100. Anything over 2 and we get at least a push. Miley is not having a stellar season with only 4 of 12 starts falling in my quality range. Kershaw we know, or could almost guess, is much better at 10 of 13, but still, the guy is not perfect by any means. With both teams coming off 0-2 weekend finishes at home I think we can expect full attention and aggressiveness tonight. The Dbacks do not soil their diapers at the mention of Kershaw and the Dodgers have dropped his last 5 starts versus the Dbacks. No umpire information available yet but a forecast of a 9 mph wind out to right can’t hurt anything either.
steveo1 - I see you quoted 3.5 so I checked and, sure enough, the 3 FLAT is no longer posted. 3.5 +105 is available and I would still recommend it, but buyer beware! Do not be satisfied with even money. I also think your 9 inning over will be good, but this is one of those games where Kershaw could settle into a groove and be tough to get to, if you don't get to him early. Just one of those things. I used to be able to walk away from Ryan's starts after 3 because if you didn't get him the first time through the order you wouldn't get to him at all about 90% of the time. His seven no hitters were all that way, you could smell it by the fourth. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
steveo1 - I see you quoted 3.5 so I checked and, sure enough, the 3 FLAT is no longer posted. 3.5 +105 is available and I would still recommend it, but buyer beware! Do not be satisfied with even money. I also think your 9 inning over will be good, but this is one of those games where Kershaw could settle into a groove and be tough to get to, if you don't get to him early. Just one of those things. I used to be able to walk away from Ryan's starts after 3 because if you didn't get him the first time through the order you wouldn't get to him at all about 90% of the time. His seven no hitters were all that way, you could smell it by the fourth. BOL
Good luck Key. Smart move by taking the Tigers first five innings. I'm not playing this game...but this Tiger team can't be trusted on the road right now.
0
Good luck Key. Smart move by taking the Tigers first five innings. I'm not playing this game...but this Tiger team can't be trusted on the road right now.
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