If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
6.14.2013, 2-1, +10.95 Units, +73% ROI
YTD – 133-140-26, +44.54 Units, +3.29% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: Pitchers continued to dominate last night and I see no reason for that to change so after I get the first play up I will be looking hard at the possible unders as well as side plays. More plays later but I think this one needs to get in early. I doubt the line will move in our favor.
Giants F5, +172(Gaudin / Minor)
Mike Minor and the Braves “at home” coming off a loss are why the line is so disproportionate to reality. Do bettors really feel the Braves, at -192, have a better than 65.8% chance of winning? If so, why? Chad Gaudin has been very good so far and his teammates hit lefties better than righties. The Giants are pulling out of their recent slump with most of the damage done at home by right handed pitchers. Granted they lost to Liriano at Pittsburgh but there is no shame in that and they did put up 4 earned runs in only 6 innings, usually enough to win a 5 inning game. Before that they put up 5 er in 5 innings versus the very hot and promising Skaggs. So with a 36.1 rating and 5.1 oera I don’t see why they don’t match up to Minor as well or better than the Braves match up to Gaudin, with the Braves at 32.4 and 4.1 oera in the offensive ratings. Once again, the line is based on perception, not true probability. Big Bonus Bucks on a live dog in a near even matchup.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
6.14.2013, 2-1, +10.95 Units, +73% ROI
YTD – 133-140-26, +44.54 Units, +3.29% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: Pitchers continued to dominate last night and I see no reason for that to change so after I get the first play up I will be looking hard at the possible unders as well as side plays. More plays later but I think this one needs to get in early. I doubt the line will move in our favor.
Giants F5, +172(Gaudin / Minor)
Mike Minor and the Braves “at home” coming off a loss are why the line is so disproportionate to reality. Do bettors really feel the Braves, at -192, have a better than 65.8% chance of winning? If so, why? Chad Gaudin has been very good so far and his teammates hit lefties better than righties. The Giants are pulling out of their recent slump with most of the damage done at home by right handed pitchers. Granted they lost to Liriano at Pittsburgh but there is no shame in that and they did put up 4 earned runs in only 6 innings, usually enough to win a 5 inning game. Before that they put up 5 er in 5 innings versus the very hot and promising Skaggs. So with a 36.1 rating and 5.1 oera I don’t see why they don’t match up to Minor as well or better than the Braves match up to Gaudin, with the Braves at 32.4 and 4.1 oera in the offensive ratings. Once again, the line is based on perception, not true probability. Big Bonus Bucks on a live dog in a near even matchup.
Had them on my list for the day, this solidified it. Would like to hear your input on the Mariners/A's . Just looking at King going from -101 to +107 overnight makes me think take the A's
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Had them on my list for the day, this solidified it. Would like to hear your input on the Mariners/A's . Just looking at King going from -101 to +107 overnight makes me think take the A's
Had them on my list for the day, this solidified it. Would like to hear your input on the Mariners/A's . Just looking at King going from -101 to +107 overnight makes me think take the A's
Not done with that game but I lean A's already. More later.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Quote Originally Posted by nuggetsfan:
Had them on my list for the day, this solidified it. Would like to hear your input on the Mariners/A's . Just looking at King going from -101 to +107 overnight makes me think take the A's
Not done with that game but I lean A's already. More later.
Neither team is hitting righty very well although the Royals have hit rock bottom and are on the way back. Just the same, neither has an outstanding potential today and if you give me Mark Wegner behind the plate in a pitchers dome I can easily see an under, at least early. Guthrie has not been great but he has been consistent and may be inheriting some of the recent momentum the Royals have established. Santana and Mendoza both came through, so why not an old pro like Guthrie. Cobb had 5 straight quality starts heading into his disaster versus the Red Sox and I don’t see why, with his consistency, he should not bounce right back with a gem.
Astros F5, +116(Danks / Harrell)
I really don’t see any reason yet the Astros can not sweep this series, and probably do it at +$ underdog prices. The WS simply are not a very good team, don’t hit well and/or produce runs. Harrell may be easy to dislike but just like the rest of this young Astros team when he catches fire he is tough to beat. His last couple outings were outstanding and we may not get the same results today but I do think we can expect a maximum effort and that is all we can ask of anybody. Something else you probably don’t realize. The Astros are 5-1-1 versus lefty their last 7 five inning games and over the last 15 have gone 7-7-1 and established an oera of 4.8 earned runs per 9. Those are not bad numbers compared to the WS 3.2 oera the last 15. False favorite? Yeah, I think so.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Royals-Rays F5, Under 4 -115(Guthrie / Cobb)
Neither team is hitting righty very well although the Royals have hit rock bottom and are on the way back. Just the same, neither has an outstanding potential today and if you give me Mark Wegner behind the plate in a pitchers dome I can easily see an under, at least early. Guthrie has not been great but he has been consistent and may be inheriting some of the recent momentum the Royals have established. Santana and Mendoza both came through, so why not an old pro like Guthrie. Cobb had 5 straight quality starts heading into his disaster versus the Red Sox and I don’t see why, with his consistency, he should not bounce right back with a gem.
Astros F5, +116(Danks / Harrell)
I really don’t see any reason yet the Astros can not sweep this series, and probably do it at +$ underdog prices. The WS simply are not a very good team, don’t hit well and/or produce runs. Harrell may be easy to dislike but just like the rest of this young Astros team when he catches fire he is tough to beat. His last couple outings were outstanding and we may not get the same results today but I do think we can expect a maximum effort and that is all we can ask of anybody. Something else you probably don’t realize. The Astros are 5-1-1 versus lefty their last 7 five inning games and over the last 15 have gone 7-7-1 and established an oera of 4.8 earned runs per 9. Those are not bad numbers compared to the WS 3.2 oera the last 15. False favorite? Yeah, I think so.
Gl Key...im looking at some unders myself today, thinking mets cubs under...Feldman dominated this mets team earlier this year and Niese has been solid and the cubs best hitter at the moment is Nate Schierholtz...that says it all, and I like Nate..thought he played well for Phillies last year and wasnt quite sure why we got rid of him and turn around and bring in a Delmon Young..Yea fuk Ruben Amaro..And Nate was solid for yrs with the Giants and was part of a good bit of success so you know hes a winning type of player...I think this game could be an early afternoon snoozer..Final Mets 3 Cubs 2
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Gl Key...im looking at some unders myself today, thinking mets cubs under...Feldman dominated this mets team earlier this year and Niese has been solid and the cubs best hitter at the moment is Nate Schierholtz...that says it all, and I like Nate..thought he played well for Phillies last year and wasnt quite sure why we got rid of him and turn around and bring in a Delmon Young..Yea fuk Ruben Amaro..And Nate was solid for yrs with the Giants and was part of a good bit of success so you know hes a winning type of player...I think this game could be an early afternoon snoozer..Final Mets 3 Cubs 2
Nice even better Schierholtz gets the day off as Hairston starts assuming tge whole lefty righty matchup is the reason but ill take it...im def on the under
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Nice even better Schierholtz gets the day off as Hairston starts assuming tge whole lefty righty matchup is the reason but ill take it...im def on the under
Nice even better Schierholtz gets the day off as Hairston starts assuming tge whole lefty righty matchup is the reason but ill take it...im def on the under
I lean toward the under myself with Carapazza behind the plate and breeze from the north, but it has dropped to 3.5 and I have to have Sandy Koufax vs. Whitey Ford to go under 3.5.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Quote Originally Posted by Frank the Bank:
Nice even better Schierholtz gets the day off as Hairston starts assuming tge whole lefty righty matchup is the reason but ill take it...im def on the under
I lean toward the under myself with Carapazza behind the plate and breeze from the north, but it has dropped to 3.5 and I have to have Sandy Koufax vs. Whitey Ford to go under 3.5.
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I Like it
Go Stros and Giants
STOP - You guys are cracking me up
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