Money Ball 7-03-2015

7-02

$446 Rangers +121, (Gallardo/Gausman) W

$446 Nationals -188, (Scherzer/Banuelos) L

$446 Rockies +142, (Rusin/Hellickson) L

YTD 95-65, +$9,922.47 (+22.4% RoR)

7-03

$422 Phillies +168, (Morgan/Teheran)

$422 Twins +140, (Milone/Guthrie)

BOL

Phillies: Play to +110. I wish I had more book on Morgan but combined with several other factors I think this line is way out of whack. The short form says he looks no worse than average but Teheran certainly is not having an average season, especially not for him. He starts today at a skills rating of 62.4, -5.6 versus average, and has produced only 7 quality starts in 16 attempts. Now couple that with his teams lousy offense, especially versus lefty, only 3 offensive earned runs per 9, and where do you find a 64% win probability (-178) just to break even, let alone make a few bucks? Morgan also comes in with the better current offense behind him, as the Phillies have posted 8 quality offensive performances their last 15 versus righty and are producing 4.7 offensive earned runs per 9. The losses to the Brewers were pitching losses, not offensive, so if Morgan outduels Teheran the Phillies have a very distinct edge here.

Twins: Play to +100. So, the Royals are home now and that will take care of everything, right? Not in my humble opinion. The offense is a swoon and for a while it was only lefties that were eating them up, but now it is both sides of the hill, as evidenced the last 2 at Houston and last night at home. Are we to forget what I pointed about the Royals offense versus lefty a week or so ago? Now 2-8 their last 10 and the 2 wins were outstanding pitching performances by Duffy and Young, not outstanding offensive performances. They are posting just 2.6 earned runs per 9 their last 15 versus lefty and have turned in just 4 quality performances, only one of them in their last 10. That one qs was on the night Elias crapped out early, nothing new for him. Jeremy Guthrie cannot win without offensive support, not with a 5-10 quality start record, and Tommy Milone comes at the Royals with a 50% probability of a quality start.

Bad news, maybe - tomorrow and Sunday could be tough posting days as the wife and I are going to visit a ghost town and plan to stay overnight. We'll see how it goes.

Thanks Key. Enjoy your trip. Have a great holiday.