Money Ball 8-14-2015

8-13

$406 Mets -258, Butler (2-13) / Syndergaard (10-6) W

YTD 116-90 (56.31%), +$9,019.89 (+14.22% RoR)

(11-10 = 65.1%) à for the football-basketball mentality

Leans: 0-0 Yesterday, 17-7 YTD

8-14

$407 Diamondbacks -1.5, +140, Ray (9-4) / Teheran (11-12)

$407 Rays -101, Karns (15-7) / Perez (1-3)

$407 Padres-Rockies Under 10.5, +100, Ross (20-5) / Flande (2-1)

$407 Nationals -1.5, +116, Scherzer (18-5) / Cain (2-5)

Lean: Pirates

Diamondbacks: One and only write up of the day so the trolls can bash away at it or attack any one or all three of the others. The quality start comparison between Ray and Teheran is much more important than the W-L, either team overall record or team record with this pitcher. Ray has quite simply had a better season, albeit most occurred when the team was dismal and producing no support at all, as in 3.0 versus 4.7. That will distort the true quality of pitching and lead to the W-L record being more/less impressive than it should be. But, run support is not something an offense decides whether or not to supply, as they would like to hit well and score runs every day. It is a combination of who you faced and how hot he was on that particular day. Teheran has benefitted from that, Ray has not. Now, let’s address that powerful factor known as home field advantage, which so many folks (mostly college foots and buckets fans) are willing to pay a premium charge for. On this day, for this game, I don’t think the overall road record of the D-bax, 26-28, or the home record of the Braves, 30-23, are the applicable factors. The D-bax are 10-10 last 20 on the road, and 6-4 last 10, and the Braves are also 6-4 last 10 at home. This is one of the factors that is constantly changing throughout the season and must be considered. Now, to play a run line you need a significant offensive advantage as well, and the D-bax supply that. Versus their last 15 versus righty they have given 8 quality performances, including 4 straight, and are projected to score 7.3 offensive earned runs versus the average righty today. The Braves counter that with only 5 quality performances their last 15 versus lefty, and only 2 in their 6 encounters since the All Star break. Those 6 games indicate an offensive earned run production of just 2.72 today and only 3.9 their last 15.

BOL 

GL sir!

moneyball

GL thanks Key

Good luck to us fine sir!

GL

Hey man! My buddy just linked me to your threads and it looks like you really know your stuff! I love the write-ups, would be cool if you did one for each pick but I know how much time that takes so I don't blame you at all lol!

Would be cool if you checked out my thread and gave me your thoughts on my approach/picks!

BOL Key 

Hey Key, any particular reason why you like the under in the Padres vs Rockies game? I love to play overs in Colorado? Thanks and GL

-4

You are not exactly alone and the line makers know it. Everyone loves overs at Coors and sometimes it is a good play or at least a decent lean. What happens is occasionally the number gets over inflated by that attitude and I think this is one of those spots. We know Ross is reliable, Flande looks like he is, and neither offense is producing anything of note lately. Partly cloudy with a mild breeze blowing out to center, but also cool, around 64. The only other thing I wish I knew was the HP umpire, but you can't have that until 20 minutes before game time on MLB...com. The line is not going anywhere but the juice is climbing on the under and that is usually a good sign.

BOL Key!

With you on the Rays Key

This thread is current and the more important of the two on page 1. Sorry I got distracted but let's get back to today's action and let the other die a natural death.

great write up we can be fooled by those w/l record home/away I definetly focus on last 6-15 games and as you wrote arizona just playing much better will tail you in this one with out even thinking about it

Thanks good luck to us

GL Key, much appreciated! I also jumped on the Snakes and the over as it sounds like we should get most of the 7.5 out of AZ. 

gl key!           

Best of luck tonight  

Thanks Key, if Its not hot in Denver that definetly will help the under cause. Lets hope for the best !!

looks like about 80 degrees or higher at game time in colorado

https://www.google.com/search?q=denver+weather&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

Crosstown Cup Classic...
No plays? 
Cubs today

Key's may be waiting in the lurch for his buddy Sale