Money Ball 8-14-2015

8-13

$406 Mets -258, Butler (2-13) / Syndergaard (10-6) W

YTD 116-90 (56.31%), +$9,019.89 (+14.22% RoR)

(11-10 = 65.1%) à for the football-basketball mentality

Leans: 0-0 Yesterday, 17-7 YTD

8-14

$407 Diamondbacks -1.5, +140, Ray (9-4) / Teheran (11-12)

$407 Rays -101, Karns (15-7) / Perez (1-3)

$407 Padres-Rockies Under 10.5, +100, Ross (20-5) / Flande (2-1)

$407 Nationals -1.5, +116, Scherzer (18-5) / Cain (2-5)

Lean: Pirates

Diamondbacks: One and only write up of the day so the trolls can bash away at it or attack any one or all three of the others. The quality start comparison between Ray and Teheran is much more important than the W-L, either team overall record or team record with this pitcher. Ray has quite simply had a better season, albeit most occurred when the team was dismal and producing no support at all, as in 3.0 versus 4.7. That will distort the true quality of pitching and lead to the W-L record being more/less impressive than it should be. But, run support is not something an offense decides whether or not to supply, as they would like to hit well and score runs every day. It is a combination of who you faced and how hot he was on that particular day. Teheran has benefitted from that, Ray has not. Now, let’s address that powerful factor known as home field advantage, which so many folks (mostly college foots and buckets fans) are willing to pay a premium charge for. On this day, for this game, I don’t think the overall road record of the D-bax, 26-28, or the home record of the Braves, 30-23, are the applicable factors. The D-bax are 10-10 last 20 on the road, and 6-4 last 10, and the Braves are also 6-4 last 10 at home. This is one of the factors that is constantly changing throughout the season and must be considered. Now, to play a run line you need a significant offensive advantage as well, and the D-bax supply that. Versus their last 15 versus righty they have given 8 quality performances, including 4 straight, and are projected to score 7.3 offensive earned runs versus the average righty today. The Braves counter that with only 5 quality performances their last 15 versus lefty, and only 2 in their 6 encounters since the All Star break. Those 6 games indicate an offensive earned run production of just 2.72 today and only 3.9 their last 15.

BOL