If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
8-5-13, 5-1, +38.73 Units, +129.1% ROI
YTD – 183-191-35, +90.95 Units, +4.92% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: I did not suck yesterday, what else would you like to know? (That was easy to edit). As for the occasional idiot that stops in and comments off the cuff without following for a while and getting the drift of things, well; there is not much you can do about that in a public forum with 80% losers that don’t think they ever need to think outside the little box that their buddies have told them is the smart way to play. That’s life. We ignore it. We move on. Such people are important in a way. I mean, you want the books to have money to pay us don’t you? They don’t do it out of their own pockets.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
8-5-13, 5-1, +38.73 Units, +129.1% ROI
YTD – 183-191-35, +90.95 Units, +4.92% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: I did not suck yesterday, what else would you like to know? (That was easy to edit). As for the occasional idiot that stops in and comments off the cuff without following for a while and getting the drift of things, well; there is not much you can do about that in a public forum with 80% losers that don’t think they ever need to think outside the little box that their buddies have told them is the smart way to play. That’s life. We ignore it. We move on. Such people are important in a way. I mean, you want the books to have money to pay us don’t you? They don’t do it out of their own pockets.
A pitcher the public hates + a team the public hates + both on the road = undervalued. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts in this case. Kendrick has had his moments this year but has not turned in only one quality start in his last 7 outings versus my rankings and Jackson (the guy the public loves to hate) has turned in 6 straight, but once the public (also known as Covers MLB Forum) decides you are a P.O.S. their opinion never changes. According to my numbers Jackson is currently worth 87 cents more in line value than Kendrick, and the offensive values are quite comparable. If I offered a line to pros only Jackson would be -130 and that might balance my books, but the linemakers know the Phillies (better team – at home) will draw the public money, so they have to overvalue the Phillies.
Athletics F5 +140 (Straily / Latos)
I will try to make a point here about Interleague play that I am relatively sure few handicappers consider but it is important, at least in my humble opinion. We often here about the effect of DH or No DH in Interleague play and it is usually viewed as definite handicap to the A.L club that loses that privilege in an N.L park. All well and good, BUT; have you ever seen it mentioned that the pitching dynamic is also effected? The A.L. hurler now has the advantage of no DH, but the N.L. hurler is merely faced with what he is used to. If doing a mathematical handicap as I do for a basic line to start from, does the A.L. hurler not deserve extra credit? Of course he does. Only once in 17 starts has Dan Straily had the advantage of pitching in a National League park, and, only once in 22 starts has Mat Latos been faced with a DH in an American League park. If properly compensated Straily easily overcomes any apparent difference in quality or advantage between himself and Latos. Just so you don’t have to run and look it up, Straily took a 6.1 inning 1 ER run win at Pittsburgh and Latos took a 6.2 inning 2 ER loss at Texas. Both were quality starts so there is really not much to be gleaned from that. He point is, if you conceived a great deal of difference in the two chuckers and leaned toward the Reds for that reason, you may be mistaken. Offensive potential tonightbso all of that being dispensed with (hope I didn’t bore anyone) let’s cu to the chase and simply say there is no way I can give the Reds a 60% probability of a 5 inning win (required at -150) but it is not hard to see the A’s at 41.7% (required at +140.
Yankees-White SoxF5 Under 3.5, -130 (Kuroda / Sale)
I don’t think for a moment the Sox can hit Kuroda and am just as certain the Yankees can’t hit Sale. If they got 1 run in 8 innings (long after the game was decided) off Quintana yesterday, what the heck is their prospectus against Sale? This is not the lefty Pettitte, it is a legit top gun righty and they have won only 4 of their last 15 matchups versus righty, a schedule that is, on average, 4.5% weaker than Kuroda. The Sox will be lucky to produce 2 earned runs in 9 innings tonight versus Kuroda, if he goes all the way, and he could against these jokers. There should be a very light wind from right to left, which is no problem, and there is a chance of rain, so I want to go F5 only and hope they get that in before any rain delay, which might cause either of our chuckers to not come back out.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Cubs F5 +102 FG +106 (Jackson / Kendrick)
A pitcher the public hates + a team the public hates + both on the road = undervalued. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts in this case. Kendrick has had his moments this year but has not turned in only one quality start in his last 7 outings versus my rankings and Jackson (the guy the public loves to hate) has turned in 6 straight, but once the public (also known as Covers MLB Forum) decides you are a P.O.S. their opinion never changes. According to my numbers Jackson is currently worth 87 cents more in line value than Kendrick, and the offensive values are quite comparable. If I offered a line to pros only Jackson would be -130 and that might balance my books, but the linemakers know the Phillies (better team – at home) will draw the public money, so they have to overvalue the Phillies.
Athletics F5 +140 (Straily / Latos)
I will try to make a point here about Interleague play that I am relatively sure few handicappers consider but it is important, at least in my humble opinion. We often here about the effect of DH or No DH in Interleague play and it is usually viewed as definite handicap to the A.L club that loses that privilege in an N.L park. All well and good, BUT; have you ever seen it mentioned that the pitching dynamic is also effected? The A.L. hurler now has the advantage of no DH, but the N.L. hurler is merely faced with what he is used to. If doing a mathematical handicap as I do for a basic line to start from, does the A.L. hurler not deserve extra credit? Of course he does. Only once in 17 starts has Dan Straily had the advantage of pitching in a National League park, and, only once in 22 starts has Mat Latos been faced with a DH in an American League park. If properly compensated Straily easily overcomes any apparent difference in quality or advantage between himself and Latos. Just so you don’t have to run and look it up, Straily took a 6.1 inning 1 ER run win at Pittsburgh and Latos took a 6.2 inning 2 ER loss at Texas. Both were quality starts so there is really not much to be gleaned from that. He point is, if you conceived a great deal of difference in the two chuckers and leaned toward the Reds for that reason, you may be mistaken. Offensive potential tonightbso all of that being dispensed with (hope I didn’t bore anyone) let’s cu to the chase and simply say there is no way I can give the Reds a 60% probability of a 5 inning win (required at -150) but it is not hard to see the A’s at 41.7% (required at +140.
Yankees-White SoxF5 Under 3.5, -130 (Kuroda / Sale)
I don’t think for a moment the Sox can hit Kuroda and am just as certain the Yankees can’t hit Sale. If they got 1 run in 8 innings (long after the game was decided) off Quintana yesterday, what the heck is their prospectus against Sale? This is not the lefty Pettitte, it is a legit top gun righty and they have won only 4 of their last 15 matchups versus righty, a schedule that is, on average, 4.5% weaker than Kuroda. The Sox will be lucky to produce 2 earned runs in 9 innings tonight versus Kuroda, if he goes all the way, and he could against these jokers. There should be a very light wind from right to left, which is no problem, and there is a chance of rain, so I want to go F5 only and hope they get that in before any rain delay, which might cause either of our chuckers to not come back out.
"Today’s comment: I did not suck yesterday, what else would you like to know? (That was easy to edit). As for the occasional idiot that stops in and comments off the cuff without following for a while and getting the drift of things, well; there is not much you can do about that in a public forum with 80% losers that don’t think they ever need to think outside the little box that their buddies have told them is the smart way to play. That’s life. We ignore it. We move on. Such people are important in a way. I mean, you want the books to have money to pay us don’t you? They don’t do it out of their own pockets. "
Like all your plays today. Starilly bothers me to back him up, but since Latos also 'bothers me', probably equals out. A's play great small ball, and the Reds looked vulnerable in that during their West Coast swing. If the Padres can have their way, what will the A's do?
0
"Today’s comment: I did not suck yesterday, what else would you like to know? (That was easy to edit). As for the occasional idiot that stops in and comments off the cuff without following for a while and getting the drift of things, well; there is not much you can do about that in a public forum with 80% losers that don’t think they ever need to think outside the little box that their buddies have told them is the smart way to play. That’s life. We ignore it. We move on. Such people are important in a way. I mean, you want the books to have money to pay us don’t you? They don’t do it out of their own pockets. "
Like all your plays today. Starilly bothers me to back him up, but since Latos also 'bothers me', probably equals out. A's play great small ball, and the Reds looked vulnerable in that during their West Coast swing. If the Padres can have their way, what will the A's do?
The number of units played is the determining factor. 90% of the plays are 5 units but if it is 3 or 7 (I have had both) that is considered in the accounting.
A 5 unit play at +120 that wins pays back 6 units of profit or 120% ROI
A 3 unit pays back 3.6 units profit is fewer units but the ROI is still 120% - only total units won will vary, but the ROI is the same. Season ROI has to be right on the money because units and profit are tallied together and a separate ROI generated from complete results. Daily results are just that, 1 day. Did that help?
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
The number of units played is the determining factor. 90% of the plays are 5 units but if it is 3 or 7 (I have had both) that is considered in the accounting.
A 5 unit play at +120 that wins pays back 6 units of profit or 120% ROI
A 3 unit pays back 3.6 units profit is fewer units but the ROI is still 120% - only total units won will vary, but the ROI is the same. Season ROI has to be right on the money because units and profit are tallied together and a separate ROI generated from complete results. Daily results are just that, 1 day. Did that help?
joshfactor - Post #8 is for you. I guess I should have quoted you but I didn't know so many folks would jump in between your question and my answer. Sorry about that.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
joshfactor - Post #8 is for you. I guess I should have quoted you but I didn't know so many folks would jump in between your question and my answer. Sorry about that.
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
8-5-13, 5-1, +38.73 Units, +129.1% ROI
YTD – 183-191-35, +90.95 Units, +4.92% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: I did not suck yesterday, what else would you like to know? (That was easy to edit). As for the occasional idiot that stops in and comments off the cuff without following for a while and getting the drift of things, well; there is not much you can do about that in a public forum with 80% losers that don’t think they ever need to think outside the little box that their buddies have told them is the smart way to play. That’s life. We ignore it. We move on. Such people are important in a way. I mean, you want the books to have money to pay us don’t you? They don’t do it out of their own pockets.
What a great night KE...ty for posting and you did not and do not ever suck.
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
8-5-13, 5-1, +38.73 Units, +129.1% ROI
YTD – 183-191-35, +90.95 Units, +4.92% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: I did not suck yesterday, what else would you like to know? (That was easy to edit). As for the occasional idiot that stops in and comments off the cuff without following for a while and getting the drift of things, well; there is not much you can do about that in a public forum with 80% losers that don’t think they ever need to think outside the little box that their buddies have told them is the smart way to play. That’s life. We ignore it. We move on. Such people are important in a way. I mean, you want the books to have money to pay us don’t you? They don’t do it out of their own pockets.
What a great night KE...ty for posting and you did not and do not ever suck.
i am all over that total key, kuroda has been one of the best in the game lately constantly baffling every lineup thats been put in front of him, sale is great as well and both of these line ups are nothing special at all, (although some people still think these are the bronx bombers from the World series days.) which is 100% false, but those people can dream right? just like the dreamers that think CC is going to turn it around in his next start? (fading him has been a money making machine) i also took yankee tt un 3 -105, i like the under for the game as well but i see no point in wagering it due to the fact that its now at 6.5 and could bring the bullpen or extras into play, if the under for F5 and full game split i cant see the F5 being the one that loses, i see 3 runs being scored in the game and i think 1 team will be shutout, im debating on betting a prop for a half unit, yankess score 0 runs +600.
0
i am all over that total key, kuroda has been one of the best in the game lately constantly baffling every lineup thats been put in front of him, sale is great as well and both of these line ups are nothing special at all, (although some people still think these are the bronx bombers from the World series days.) which is 100% false, but those people can dream right? just like the dreamers that think CC is going to turn it around in his next start? (fading him has been a money making machine) i also took yankee tt un 3 -105, i like the under for the game as well but i see no point in wagering it due to the fact that its now at 6.5 and could bring the bullpen or extras into play, if the under for F5 and full game split i cant see the F5 being the one that loses, i see 3 runs being scored in the game and i think 1 team will be shutout, im debating on betting a prop for a half unit, yankess score 0 runs +600.
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