NLCS GAME 5 (10/21)

PLAYOFF RECORD:  8-2-1 (this record is for Diamondbacks games only)

Great record with the Diamondbacks but some of the bankroll is also due to tailing other great handicappers like @MrBator @BrooklynCapper and @Pho-20.  I never blindly tail and I always recommend people do their own research but some of their insights have helped me get pieces of parlays and reversals that have made this a magical run for me.  OF COURSE, most the money was collected on my own plays and insights and I hope to help more people in the coming days.  And I've gotten lucky with the losses being on smaller wagers and the wins on larger ones.  Definitely doesn't always work that way for me.

As I said yesterday in my thread, after todays game, the Diamondbacks will be up 3-2 heading to Philadelphia.  I still very much believe this will be the case and with Zac Gallen, a Philadelphia native on the mound, at home where he was been exceptional, in his first playoff home start, I'm not sue how not to back him.  But let's go through some of the analytics and reasonings why I feel this way.

When looking at Gallen's splits, he is pretty much the same pitcher whether day or night (3.38 ERA vs. 3.55 ERA).  But when you dissect the splits more, to take into account home vs. away, Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA at Chase and 5-6 with a 4.42 ERA away from home.  He insisted that the Phillies were tipping his and the relievers pitches in his first start so, if there is even any validity to that, there will be some changes made.

On the other side, Wheeler has also been pretty good on the road and so I think this might very well be a low scoring affair.  I just can't go against the team with the momentum and the pitcher with a record like Gallen has at home, with the stakes as high as they are.  I think Wheeler will be more hittable than he was last time out, though that doesn't mean much as he was unhittable the first start.

Both bullpens are taxed and both pitchers will be on a longer leash.  I know this sounds repetitive, and maybe I'm stubborn, but give me the DIAMONDBACKS at home for a MEGA play this evening.  I will be at the stadium and trying to make @MrBator proud by bringing the noise.  Regardless, I will check the thread, and if anyone else is going to the game, let me know.

As always, keep commentary positive and, tail or fade, good luck to all...

@LAGameofInches

@LAGameofInches

 I thought we had you guys last night after going up 5-2 late, instead we gifted you the game when we put Kimbrel in.

Good luck tonight  (not really - just being nice)

Mr 6 figures 

One of the first baseball betting tips I ever learned was called the "quick turnaround rematch", which described what we have here tonight, two starting pitchers facing each other for the second consecutive start. The tip said to bet the opposite of the first meeting if each starting pitcher figured in the first decision. Zack Wheeler got the Game 1 win and Zac Gallen got the Game 1 loss, so the bet tonight is on the D-Backs to win. Has that angle held up after three decades? I have no idea, lol, but it still sounds good so I'm happy to roll with it.

I didn't think the D-Backs were going to win yesterday's game (I'm talking about before the game started), but I like them a lot today to complete the sweep of their three home games, which is something we seldom see in any sport in this 2-3-2 series format. It just feels like the Phillies have lost control of a series they might've thought they'd already won (much like the Texas Rangers, who by the way are finito in the ALCS).. If the Phils can't recover tonight from blowing leads in the last two games, I don't think they'll recover at home on Monday night either. That's right, I said it!

Yeah, he is. Celebrate it, don't hate it.

Thank you.  I wish I could prove it but don't have to.  I post in all sports, always have a record, and don't shy away from having a spine when people question the plays.  

That being said, there's a reason he's the "Unranked"Champ.  I'm going for just Champ myself.

I'll take nice over nasty any day.  Going to be a crazy game as both teams know the WS is within reach. 

I agree with @MrBator that if the Dbacks do get it tonight, might very well be game set match.  Plus these young kids really don't know what they are doing, they just go out and do it.  Defense will be the key imo opinion tonight, I think the pitchers will both be strong and ready.

@MrBator

 Body language said it all last night. A dejected Philly team.. This Zona team is a bit more special than people think. Let's see if they can carry momentum into Philly game 6. 

Agreed.  I think MrBator said it well when he mentioned how they were uber confident that they had this in the bag, forgetting that they actually have a losing record on the road this season.  So, if they can't get one on in Phoenix, I'm afraid they are going to feel even more pressure than they do now.  And Kimbrel cannot be called upon to close anymore.  

Funny how last year the team that was doing this was the Phillies.  

@LAGameofInches

@LAGameofInches

 I rode their streak during the season. If Carroll, Walker and Pham can start hitting in key spots, this series should be 3-1. Marte the spark and team follows. Moreno best hitting catcher left in both series. Pitching was a bit more dominant during the regular season, but I see it shaping up to be there at the end for Zona. Zona is the side tonight. Great analysis as always. BOL LA. 

thanks. Solid post and addition to thread. Heading down to stadium in an hour or so. Gonna be a zoo but one full of snakes ??. 

Heading to game now...will check in on thread.  LFGO!

@LAGameofInches

 Good luck tonight. No play for me just watching the score. 

I’m on the D-Backs +122. If they win tonight, my +1.5 games -125 prop will also be a winner.

Already a mess, and it started with the Schwarber “single.”

Christian Walker’s failures continue as he whiffs with runners on 1st and 3rd and only one out. He is now 1-14 in the NLCS.

Going to have to find some way to take Wheeler out by the 5th inning and get to that Phillie bullpen....

Evan Longoria whiffs to end the 2nd inning. He is now 1-10 in this series.

Corbin Carroll finally gets a hit, now 2-16 in the series.