The time is upon us my friends. MLB is finally back 
It's been a busy offseason for many teams. Lots of new faces to adjust to. Only time will tell who made the right moves. Truth be told, because of all the roster changes and the fact that we have no current data/trends to work with - Opening Day and the first few weeks for that matter are the most difficult to handicap. That doesn't mean we won't try. I just tend to come out of the gates slowly and ramp up as the season progresses.
Opening Day is particularly challenging because we have all aces on the mound and a lot of emotions flying around. With that said, I do have one play circled on the card. Below is a brief synopsis on why I'm on it.
1) The San Francisco Giants were Spring Training's best team. They finished with a 21-6 record that included a +57 run differential. Of course, Spring should be taken with a grain of salt, but I like that momentum. I'm high on SF this season in general. They play in a tough division - but if they can stay healthy, I think they could surprise some people.
2) Cincinnati was one of the worst teams this Spring. The Reds finished with a 12-17 record and a -17 run differential. Because of Terry Francona, I'm higher than I would've been on the Reds. I think he'll make them competitive. However, they didn't do enough to the roster to make me believe they're playoff contenders.
3) Logan Webb will get the Opening Day nod for the 4th consecutive year. His Spring stats were fantastic. He pitched to a 3-0 record with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. His career advanced metrics are solid across the board and are why he finished 6th in Cy Young voting last year. His arsenal includes 5 good pitches; fastball, changeup, slider, sinker, and cutter. I believe his ability to mix up those pitches and keep the ball on the ground (57.2% ground ball rate) will once again have him in the Cy Young conversation.
4) The Reds will counter with Hunter Greene. He pitched rather poorly this Spring. He sported a 1-1 record with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. While Greene's traditional stats from 2024 were impressive, advanced metrics indicate areas for potential regression. For example, Fangraph's WAR valued him at 3.8 W's while Baseball-Reference's WAR was almost double that at 6.2. That's a big discrepancy and suggests home run rates, BABIP, strand rates, etc, may not be sustainable long term. His best pitch is the fastball and it's a good one at over 100 mph. However, it's predictable at times and has lead to a poor ground ball rate at 34%. Of course, adjustments can be made. However, I'm not as high on Greene as others to start the season. I think he'll be pretty good, but I'm not sold on great yet.
5) Neither team comes in with high expectations for their bullpen. However, while the Giants look like a mediocre pen, the Reds are projected to have one of the worst bullpens in all of MLB to start the season. If Greene pitches well, it's nice to know that he'll be followed by a crappy pen.
With that, I'm on the Giants at -104 for 1 unit.
I'll keep a record, but not gonna mess around with unit sizes. For record keeping only - All favorites will be to win 1 unit and dogs will be risking 1 unit.
I wish you all the best of luck this season. Let's get it! Cheers 
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