Percentage of games won by 1 run??????

Here is what I found for this season...coming into today"

A.L

472 games played...134 1 run games='s  28%

NL

530 games played ...150 1 run games =' 28%

Need to rearch the %'s on lines that are -1.5 in the +135 to +150 range with dog money lines of +140 to +150

Might be able to bet both the run-line and dog line in the same game....so really making a wager the game will either be won by the dog or the favorite by 2

How can the average differential be 1?

Every game must be decided by at least 1 run? And when games finish 10-1 and 7-3 it has to change that.

The data I have seen this year says that 28% of games finish with a 1 run differential...meaning that 72 % finish with results greater than 1.

So please explain how the differential is 1?

Are you saying that the home team wins 5-4 on average? road team 5-4? Because its impossible for the overall differential to be just 1

sparty444

i think you have too many games for the season so far - i think what you did was just add up the teams records and add them all together for the total amount of games - only problem with that is, you have to divide the total number by 2 because it counts as a game for each team if you dont divide by 2, instead of 1 game involving 2 teams

check my numbers earlier in the post - i think they are accurate

max

good research

i was thinking about it too, and playing both the dog $line and the fav run line would mean u r risking 2 units to win about .2 units to 1 units

which i think that would equate to a -200 to -400 moneyline i think for each game, depending on the odds of the dog and the odds of the fav run line

I went through this years data... and found that games with a dog line of +140 to +150 happened 66 times. Out of those 66 times...the dog won straight up 26 times... the favorites covered the run-line 32 times. This data was from using wagertracker. 

I am going to go back and look at matchbook lines...because that is where this has the best chance of success.

Out of those dog winners.... the average line was +144 ... which comes out to 11.44 units of profit on the dogs

You have the -16 units for the 8 losses ...meaning we would need 4.56 units of profit on the 32 run-line victories that happened to break even.

The site I used didn't have the data with it for run-lines. But if we had on average a +115 line on the RL we'd be slightly in the green.

I suspect that Matchbook would have better odds on both lines which could help this further.

Not saying this will work...just saying it might worth some further time

Will try and research the Matchbook lines today... would love to break it down further...factoring in strength of teams/ pitchers/etc.

In order to get a team at -1.5 RL and take an underdog on the money line +(any number), the game would have to be pretty close to start and you're looking at a small turn of profit.

It's called a "reverse middle", when your hoping for anything but a certain number in the middle of the two bets you have.

You said you were looking for a formula.... well here it is.

You need first to find the probability of the Favorite winning by 1 run.

Lets use today's Yankees vs. Tigers game.

Yankees -140 and -1.5 +120

Tigers +130 and +1.5 -140

Say that the favorite wins by 1 run 12% of the time (I don't know if this number is accurate or not, but thats besides the point)

Formula:

Yankees win by -1.5 runs ---- Probability 44% Yanks+120 Tig -100

Yankees win 1 runs ------------ Probability 12% Yanks-100   Tig-100

Tigers win (Any way) ---------- Probability 44% Yanks-100   Tig+130

EV (Expected Value)

=(44% x $20) + (12% x -$200) + (44% x $30)

=     ($8.8)     +        ($-24)    +    ($13.2)

= $-2

This is a negative EV bet and therefore should NOT be done.

This should help.

Longterm,  Yes your right.... i did the total games combined... but it will be the same based on the fact that you'd need to divide not just the total games numbers but the 1 run game numbers as well. Meaning the percentages mentioned will be the same. It saved time that way.

The total games played numbers needed to be halved because they had opponents....but the 1 run game stat needs to be halved for the same reason. So the percentages should be the same

Sam,  Your right based on the numbers you plugged in. Plug in the values that I found. The average dog line was +144...not +130

And I think the RL average would be closer to +130 instead of the +120 you picked

The percentages don't need to be halved.... Probabilities stand for the possible outcomes simply divided by two minus the difference from the middle. Your betting both sides of the game in this case. Hence a reverse middle.

Someone has to win             = 100%

Possible middle                   = 12%

Possible chances of winning = 88%

I was just using them as an example.... I found those numbers on Sportsbook.com. But the key is to find the chance of middling and plug the numbers in accordingly and check your EV.

The half comment was for post #26 ...not the formula

Matchbook data is the key ...books that have anything larger than 10 cent lines wouldn't make this worth 5 minutes really

Not saying this will work guys...this hasn't been back fed except for this season. So do not tail this in any regards

Am just discussing the possibility here.

I've always found it much easier to bet other sports (NFL is my strong game). So I don't bet baseball with much liquid but I have found a great way to make money and limit risk.

Reading the market like a book is what I pride myself on in baseball. Simply buy low and sell high. Predicting what the lines will end up at is how I bet baseball most of the time. It takes alot of patience and money. And sometimes (though very rarely) you get "stuck" with a team or a negative EV bet.

Quote Originally Posted by S_A_I_N_T_S:

don't do it bro! It's not worth it. You don't want to risk $200, to only make $40-$50 profit at best and lose $200 at worst. 

I lay the formula out for him and still thinks to lay the bets.

TY for using common sense.

I know no one should be betting this.... but.... why does this need anymore research than the formula I just gave you?

All you have to do is plug in the numbers and if its positive EV bet it and if its negative EV don't bet it...