Percentage of games won by 1 run??????

Because the data in your formula is wrong....fundamentals are right...just not the percentages.

Just because i see a 58-8 record for this season...doesn't mean those are the exact % of probability. Back filling other seasons would be recommended.

Also getting the best possible lines is important. You were plugging in +120 on the RL and +130 on the dog and those figures are not accurate nor efficient enough to make money. Unless the lines are there to make it possible...this would be a waste of time and money.

I just told you that!!!

It don't matter what the percentages are all you need in the MIDDLE percentage and since you would be betting BOTH sides of the game you simply split the remaining percentage after the middle % is found.

This formula is correct for finding the EV of a bet!

It's not up to me to decide for you what the odds are and if the lines are efficient enough to make a bet.

But as for finding the EV of a  reverse middle (which this bet you asked about is) this formula is the best way to find an exact number. My data (the numbers in the formula) are EXAMPLES of how the formula works!

You have the RL at 44%....1 run favorite win at 12% and dog outright 44%.  Those are the percentages that I disagree with.

Having a more exact % of RL victories...1 run fav victories and outright dog winners is needed.

I have the 1 run favorite win at 16.8%

Ok now I see where we're getting lost....

In this type of bet, since you'll have the favorite giving 1.5 runs and the underdog to win outright, you have BOTH sides of the bet.

Now, having both sides of a bet with a middle possibility you are not looking to find out which team winning is more likely to happen. With this bet you are hedging. A reverse middle is a form of hedging because you have BOTH sides of the bet.

And since the objective in betting sports is to win money, this formula finds the expected value of the bet.

In this type of bet, unlike other straight bets, you are rooting against a particular situation to happen (game outcome will NOT be by one run). You are not betting this type of wager in hopes that a certain outcome happens other than the middle not happening.

My data for this season show

48% RL

13% 1 run favorite win

39% dog outright

This is for dog line games between +140 to +150

Most data I have seen has games being decided by 1 run 28% of the time with dogs winning 40% of those. .28 x .60 comes out to 16.8%

16.8% is a big difference from the 13% I am seeing for this season. But because I am focusing on such a small data field...its hard to tell which % is more appropriate....which is why more research would be helpful.

Am not saying this will work...am saying there is a chance. If you want to disagree thats cool. Your probably right...this is probably nothing.

But just based on the data from last night i saw the potential if further data supports it

Yes you're right more data on the % of games that are won by 1 run. But as for the formula... just plug in the numbers to find if a particular bet of this type in Pos EV or Neg EV.

Your logic would be correct if both RL and dogs hit at the same percentage ...and if you could get the same line on both.

Yes its a reverse middle...yes we are betting against something happening.

However our payoff must be value compared to the odds... and knowing whether the RL or dog hits more is very important. Reason is because you can shade lines more towards the strength than the weakness.

My data was showing 48% on the RL and 39% on the dog. That data is important in regards to the % we must win to profit. If those numbers were to be consistant...we'd be better off trying to get bigger RL lines than dog lines.  And I suspect on big named teams we would have a tougher time getting large RL's than dog lines

Factoring in team strength and pitcher strength also could help optimize this theory...but that could take alot of time and organization

IF YOU PLAYED +1.5 THE LAST 5 DAYS THIS IS WHAT TOU GOT.

5/12/10=== 11 WINS AND 5 LOSSES

5/11/10=== 7 WINS AND 6 LOSSES

5/10/10=== 6 WINS AND 3 LOSSES

5/09/10=== 9 WINS AND 6 LOSSES

5/08/10=== 10 WINS AND 6 LOSSES

TOTAL

      43 WINS AND 26 LOSSES

I DONT KNOW BUT I THINK THAT ANYBODY THAT PLAY THE +1.5 IN THE LAST 5 DAYS HAVE MADE GOOD MONEY

Using SBRforums odds... if you used the closing odds on all dogs with +135 to +145 and played both sides....you'd be 50-3 through April.  Not sure how many units up as I need to factor in RL and dog lines on the winners. I thought this info was interesting

VERY PROFITABLE MY FRIEND

Am seeing 30 RL wins and 20 dog wins in April

May has seen 7 RL winners and 11 dog winners thus far

37 RL winners and 31 dog winners out of the 68 wins

Here is a problem I see with this:

Its very easy to compare things that have occurred... now the task of being able to see these things happen before they occur.

Noticed that matchbook lines can fluctuate towards gametime.... so a criteria would need to be created on how to make selections.

But even before this we need to back fill this with previous season data. The results this season could be abnornal...show me 3 straight years of where this could work and then we might have something

Am seeing the Padres +149 and the Giants RL +141

This would fit the system mentioned...will be curious to see what happens

Guys -  thanx  for all the research .  Info to take into consideration

                        GL